Orlando Magic: Is Elfrid Payton making moving on hard?

The Orlando Magic are going to have a high lottery pick this summer and a new point guard appears a must. But is Elfrid Payton making moving on from him hard?

With the 2017-18 NBA regular season heading towards All-Star weekend, already it feels like the Orlando Magic need to get to the summer and re-evaluate.

They are going to have a high lottery pick, and also appear a prime candidate for trade discussions, both before the trade deadline and during the offseason too.

Close losses to the Indiana Pacers don’t help the feeling around the team either, but the reality is the Magic are better off losing as many games between now and the draft anyway — a depressing but familiar thought.

One of the key items of business the Magic will have to address once the regular season has ended is what to do with Elfrid Payton.

Considered by many to have the kind of talent that makes it tough to build around, will he be shown the exit door before next season begins, or would the team live to regret that?

Payton will be a restricted free agent this summer after the Magic declined to offer him an early extension before the season began.

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The ideal scenario for the team would be if Payton was dangled out there for another team to come in with an offer sheet for, but either it didn’t happen or it was a low offer.

Then, the Magic could match what Payton is being offered elsewhere, or give him a team-friendly deal if nobody else bites, and have him not eat into the salary cap too much going forward.

Payton coming off the bench makes sense, given that he clearly belongs in the league but hasn’t progressed sufficiently over his four-year career to warrant being an automatic starter — which is what he is right now, because of the roster this team currently has. Injuries haven’t helped either.

There’s every reason to think that Payton could be back next season to help this team in a more limited role. But should they even want that?

Bill Simmons made the point on The Lowe Post podcast recently that Payton is around the 40th-best point guard in the league. When you look at the depth chart of others teams in the league at that position, you begin to see that he may have a point.

Even if you think that is harsh, consider this. What other team would trade their starting floor general straight up for Payton?

The list is small, and the phone has not exactly been ringing off the hook with other teams looking to acquire his services either. Yet despite that, on any given night Payton can look like the driving force for this team, and he is.

Then again, do any numbers reflect this, and has he done enough — not only this season but in the three prior — to make the Magic consider keeping hold of him?

On a personal level, Payton is still only a youngster in the league at 23, and he is averaging career highs in points (13.3 per game) and 3-point shooting (40.3 percent).

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That second number is important, as it may hold the key to Payton’s future with this team. He has always been a poor shooter, averaging a poor 28.7 percent from deep his first three seasons.

A more consistent jumper from deep — and 40 percent on 1.6 attempts per game is looking much more like it — could mean Payton is about to turn a corner as a player in the same way Victor Oladipo did. Oladipo was 23 himself when he was traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and just two short years later will be an All-Star for the first time next month.

What else then has Payton got going in his favor? His Player Efficiency Rating (league average 15) of 17.9 is also a career high, despite averaging the fewest minutes of his career (29.3 per game).

His effective field goal percentage of 54.4 is also a career high despite seeing less action than previous seasons, and is far better than the next-best output (49.3 percent).

So far so good, Payton appears to be trending in the right direction in the one area that was harming his growth as a player.

This positivity continues, as he is posting an offensive rating of 105.2, another career high. If you combine this with the shooting numbers, there’s no reason to think that won’t increase some more.

Playing with pace is something else Payton brings to this team that allows them to score well in transition and turn the screw on older legs around the league.

To that end, Payton is once again posting the best number of his career personally (101.6) while the Magic play with the seventh-highest pace in the league (101.2).

Improved shooting and fast-paced play, not to mention averaging 6.4 assists per night (right on par with his career average, but still leaving room for improvement), the team should be paying attention now.

Yet it is the one end where Payton was supposed to excel straight out of college — defensively — where there have been some setbacks.

Despite spending more time on the court than ever before with rim protector Bismack Biyombo, as opposed to the much worse defender in Nikola Vucevic, Payton’s defensive rating of 113 is the worst mark of his career.

It also absolutely horrendous, especially given that he posted a rating of 105 his rookie campaign. That’s still a bit below-average, but also promising for a teenager in the NBA. The Magic have the 27th-ranked defense in the league right now at 108.7, but is that all Payton’s fault?

His first season with the team, they finished 25th in this category (105.2), and that was without a defensive guru like Frank Vogel running the team. His second season with the team they shot up to 17th (104.6) and last season they finished 24th (108).

So despite on paper having the best roster since Dwight Howard left in 2012, the Magic have their worst defensive rating since Payton joined the team.

A coincidence? Possibly, but it now seems that Elfrid Payton will need to up his game on that end of the floor if he wants a hefty extension in the offseason.

What they should do is draft another promising point guard and see if they can get him back as a sixth man/quality backup.

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His offense may be improving, but not to the point that he is a must have on this team. Plenty of guards can score like he can and his defensive talent has stagnated. He hasn’t done enough to warrant a big extension and doing so would hamper this team’s already questionable future.