Indiana Pacers: 2018 NBA trade deadline preview
No one expected the Indiana Pacers to be in a position to acquire talent at the 2018 NBA trade deadline, but here they are. Here’s a look at some moves they may consider.
There’s always one.
While the rest of sports has gotten more unpredictable over the years, the NBA is chalkier than a 1950s classroom. Season after season, the win totals teams end up with are almost always within a few games of what Las Vegas predicted in September. Usually though, there’s an exception.
Last season, it was the Houston Rockets, who exceeded expectations by 14 games. The year before that it was the Portland Trail Blazers defying the odds and winning 44 when the bookmakers had them at 26.5. In 2014-15, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics bested projections by 16 and 14 wins, respectively. We all remember the little Phoenix Suns team that could from 2013-14 as well.
This season, the Indiana Pacers are the ones who’ve raised eyebrows. Given an over/under of 30.5, they’re currently on pace for 45 wins. If you take away the four recent losses without Victor Oladipo, they’d be looking at making a run at 50. They still might.
Just like the teams that have come before them, the Pacers have benefited from an unexpected season from a player who everyone knew had talent. He’s still surprising people on a nightly basis.
With Oladipo’s rise comes questions about whether Indiana should do something that was impossible to fathom before the season started: be buyers at the deadline.
Here’s a look at where they’re at as we get closer to Feb. 8.
What they’d be looking for
The Pacers are in an interesting spot. On one hand, they’re smart enough to know that they’re not winning anything this year. To be a contender, you need all the pieces to fit perfectly. Indiana has about three-fifths of the puzzle complete.
If you squint hard enough, Oladipo profiles as someone who could be the lead dog on a great team if he’s surrounded by enough elite secondary pieces. More likely is that he’s Scottie Pippen to a Michael Jordan that doesn’t exist yet.
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Myles Turner had some people thinking he could turn into a star, but his play has leveled off this season. His ceiling now appears to be “borderline All-Star,” which is fine. His new teammate Domantas Sabonis may actually have a better chance of developing into a frontline starter, but he’s also not a lead dog.
Those three players represent Indiana’s core moving forward. There’s no superstar currently on the trade market that fits the Pacers’ timeline, nor would they have the pieces to make a deal without including one of the two young bigs. Indiana has always been a patient organization, and there’s no sense a shake up is coming before the deadline.
Much more likely would be a small move that could bring another secondary young piece that has a chance to grow with the Big Three. Darren Collison has played over his head this year, but point guard would seem to be a position they could upgrade. Starting forwards Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic have slightly exceeded expectations, but both will be 29 by season’s end and shouldn’t preclude Indiana from acquiring someone at either position.
Complicating matters is the question of whether Sabonis and Turner are capable of sharing the court. The Pacers have only played the duo about six minutes per game thus far to mostly middling results. How they see the duo fitting together long-term could go a long way in deciding on a potential move.
What Indiana can offer
Indiana has two chips they could potentially put on the table: their 2018 first round pick and the professor himself, Al Jefferson. Each is appealing for different reasons.
Let’s start with Jefferson. Although he’s filled in admirably for an injured Turner at multiple points this season, his value comes more from his unique contract. Big Al’s $10 million team option for next season is only partially guaranteed for $4 million. To a team looking to duck the luxury tax, that $6 million could make a big difference in what figures to be a tight summer league-wide when it comes to spending.
Just as rare as expiring money are available first round picks. The Pacers figure to finish with anywhere from the 22nd to the 15th pick in the draft. If they decided to move it as part of a package, it could represent the best-first rounder to be moved this February.
As noted, Indiana is an incredibly patient organization, and doesn’t have a history of dealing away picks. For them to move it at the deadline, another team would have to offer up something really enticing that not only helps the Pacers win now, but could be a big part of their core moving forward.
Realistic moves
Let’s deal with the obvious name first.
Kemba Walker is really freaking good and plays a position of need for the Pacers. Charlotte fell off the treadmill of mediocrity this season and is taking a steam in the sauna of despair. If there were ever a time for a shake up, it’s now.
The Hornets are usually an organization loath to sacrifice present-day wins for the long-term good, even when its patently obvious to everyone that they should be doing exactly that. They may be reconsidering that strategy. Marc Stein of the New York Times said Monday on the Dunc’d On podcast that Charlotte at least appears to be considering their options.
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If they ever made Kemba available, Al Jefferson and a first certainly wouldn’t get it done. The Hornets would ask for Sabonis or Turner, and Indiana would probably say no. But they’d at least give it a moment’s thought.
Portland is another interesting possible trade partner. The Trail Blazers are in a five-team dogfight for the last four spots in the Western Conference playoffs with a roster that is currently in the luxury tax.
Meanwhile, Maurice Harkless has tailed off after last season. He’s averaging five points per game and has played under 10 minutes in three of the last four games after falling out of the rotation entirely for a stretch in December. He’s also owed $22 million over the next two seasons. As a guy who might just need a change of scenery, the Pacers could take a chance if all it costs them is Jefferson.
For comedic purposes only, sending Jefferson to New Orleans for former Pacer Solomon Hill would be fitting. The Pelicans would love to get out from under the next two years of Hill’s deal, although it’s doubtful they would send out a first-rounder purely as part of a salary dump. Would that change if Indiana included an additional small asset — T.J. Leaf, perhaps — in the deal? No harm in asking.
If Indiana doesn’t think it’s going to be able to attract a major free agent, one call they could make is to the Miami Heat. They’re on the hook for two more years of Tyler Johnson at over $38 million thanks to the poison pill offer sheet Brooklyn signed him to in 2016.
The Heat are slated to have a payroll of $144 million next season without re-signing Wayne Ellington, who they surely want back. They like Johnson a lot, but that’s a lot of moolah to pay for a non-contender. Could the Pacers extract Justise Winslow if they agree to take on the rest of Johnson’s deal? It seems like it would be worth a phone call.
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In all likelihood, the Pacers will stand pat. It’s always been their M.O. to sit back and wait to see how things develop, and there’s no reason to change course now. With the season they’ve had so far, no one will be complaining.