Checking in on Golden State Warriors’ win pace at halfway point

Over the past 21 games, the Golden State Warriors are winning at a 70-win clip. Will they sustain that pace, regress to the 59-win team they were early on or land somewhere in between?

In late November, when the Golden State Warriors were 15-6, I looked into whether their 59-win pace was for real. Since then, they have gone 18-3.

Now, just over halfway through the season, the Warriors are on pace to finish 65-17—a low mark for the Steve Kerr era, but still one of the 25 greatest records in NBA history.

Nothing about their last 21 games has been surprising. Even as poor defense and inconsistent effort mired them early on, I wrote that it would not take much to end up where they currently are:

"Mental exhaustion is easier to shake than physical, and the team’s fundamentals already make this stretch feel a bit flukey. One of the Warriors’ close losses going their way and a more normal 3-point shooting stretch for Curry (even just reaching 40 percent, if he’s not a 45 percent shooter anymore), and the team could easily go 18-3 over its next 21 games. That would put them at 33-9."

Curry did indeed start to get hot following those first 21 games. However, he rolled his ankle four games (all wins) later, and missed the next 11. He came back for five (all wins), and his 3-point shooting has already risen well above 40 percent for the entire season. Hitting 6.6 3s at 53.2 percent will do that, even over just five games.

Close contests have also started going the Warriors’ way. They have won all seven of their games that have entered “clutch” time (five point margin or less in the final five minutes), and have a 31.5 net rating in clutch minutes. That’s a major upgrade from their 3-4 record and +6.4 net rating in such situations during the season’s first quarter.

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Curry’s dominance and the Warriors’ clutch play — which are often the same thing — have the team back atop the NBA standings. But as ripe for a turnaround as they were 21 games in, their last 21 have been a little too good to sustain. Whoever the 2017-18 Warriors really are, it is neither of the teams they’ve been so far. The question is, which one is closer to their reality?

Golden State should remain a great clutch team, but we can assume that it won’t stay quite this dominant. Over the past two decades, only the 2015-16 Warriors and 2012-13 Heat have finished the season with a clutch net rating of over +30.0. This year’s Warriors do have the talent to continue to play at that rare clip, but their actual record in such games will regress no matter what. Even the other two top teams in clutch time since Nov. 28 don’t have unblemished results: Miami is 11-2 in close games with a +42.4 clutch net rating, while San Antonio is 6-3 (+30.4 clutch net rating).

If the Warriors play 14 more clutch games this year, they should not be expected to do better than 11-3. That would still be an upgrade over the 10-4 they are in such games thus far.

Their overall net rating should also stabilize. Relatively good health contributed to a guady +12.7 rating through 21 games, while alternating injuries for Curry and Durant have had an adverse effect since (+8.2, despite the better record). Their overall figure is +10.5, which translates to an expected win-loss record of 66-16.

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Combine that with their good-to-great clutch play and what should be a stronger second half than first for both Durant and Curry (assuming his recent ankle tweak is not too serious), and another 67-win season seems like the most reasonable outcome. It would require a 34-6 finish (or a 70-win pace), but that’s what most people expected from this team heading into the season. As the greatest regular season team of all-time, the Warriors are as good at making the spectacular dull as they are at making the dull spectacular.