Myles Turner and the danger of high expectations

After the Indiana Pacers plucked Myles Turner with the 11th pick in the 2015 NBA Draft, it looked like they had a steal. Almost three years later, things aren’t as clear.

NBA players generally fall into three camps over the first few years of their careers. Camp A features guys who not only justify their draft slot but blow away most reasonable expectations, like Donovan Mitchell and Kyle Kuzma this year.

Camp B includes players who you can tell right away were taken a few spots too high (everyone drafted by the Phoenix Suns in the last two years, we’re looking at you).

Then there’s Camp C, which is where most players live. It’s made up of guys who are more or less what you thought they would be. There’s nothing wrong with being in Camp C…it’s a perfectly respectable place to be.

Unless you’ve already been in Camp A.

An early revelation…

From the first few weeks that the 2015 draft class took the court, there was a common narrative in place among the big men in the group: Karl-Anthony Towns was the one who had it all, Kristaps Porzingis was the not-quite-poor-but-slightly-less-wealthy-man’s version of Towns, and Myles Turner was doing his thing, nipping at KP’s heels. He stayed under the radar of the casual fan, but had NBA nerds across the country salivating at the potential he showed glimpses of on a nightly basis.

Last season, things held true to form. Minnesota was terrible, but Towns went through a two-month stretch when he looked like a top-10 player. Porzingis was a bastion of light for downtrodden Knicks fans. Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid joined in the fun to make this the best crop of 23-and-under centers in the league at any time in its history.

Turner, meanwhile, just kept plugging away. He made the necessary upticks in all the traditional counting-stat categories, began shooting 3s — at a 35 percent clip, nonetheless — and started 81 games on a playoff team. His first playoff game came just about a month after his 21st birthday. Things were looking good, more people started to take notice, and expectations started to rise.

…Slow to grow

This year, Turner hasn’t been bad by any stretch. He’s third in the league in blocks per game, which is always a nice feather in the cap of a big man. He’s also jumped up from 1.4 to 2.5 threes per game while making 33.3 percent of his attempts. Most notably, the Indiana Pacers have vastly exceeded expectations, and now with Victor Oladipo back healthy, look poised to make a run to the playoffs.

Turner has been a big part of what they’ve done. He’s started every game since returning from a concussion that sidelined him for two weeks early in the year, and the on/off metrics suggest he’s contributing to the winning formula.

So why have there been murmurings about Turner’s performance? Why has the league gone from looking at him as a future star to now just…a guy who does some stuff well but no longer makes observers swoon at his ceiling? There have even been subtle calls for him to be benched in favor of Indiana’s shiny new toy, Domantas Sabonis. What gives?

No comparison

The numbers tell part of the answer. For starters, despite the high number of blocks he’s getting, there are questions about Turner’s ability to protect the rim at an elite level.

When Turner defends an opponent’s shot attempt, they shoot just 0.7 percent worse on average. That’s not bad – he ranks tied for 44th among the 100 players who have defended at least 10 shots per game, just behind Karl-Anthony Towns.

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But it’s far below contemporaries like Embiid (against whom opponents shoot 9.1 percent worse), Anthony Davis (4.3 percent worse), and Porzingis (4.2 percent worse). Turner also isn’t deterring opponents from shooting at close range, as teams only take 0.5 percent fewer shots at the rim when he’s in the game than when he’s out, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On offense, Turner’s shot profile outside of his increased 3s is worrisome. He’s taking only 35 percent of his shots at the rim –- low for someone his size — while 34 percent of his attempts are long 2s, among the highest in the league for big men. He’s hitting over half of those mid-rangers, which is fantastic, but his 61 percent shooting at the rim is concerning.

Turner also offers very little else by way of offensive contribution. His 4.7 offensive rebound rate is 57th among 61 qualified centers according to NBA.com, while his 8.0 assist rate ranks 36th. Simply looking at his counting stats is underwhelming as well. Aside from his 3-point shooting, Turner’s per-36 minute numbers look largely the same for each of his three years in the league.

Lowering the ceiling

Ideally, if a player with Myles’ talent isn’t putting up huge numbers, he should at least be highly efficient. Turner’s 21.6 usage rate pales in comparison to peers like Embiid (33.5), Porzingis (32.4), Davis (27.4), and yet his true shooting percentage is just 56.9. That’s fine, but it’s nothing special, especially when compared with someone like Towns. KAT’s smaller usage rate of 22.5 looks a lot better with a 63.4 true shooting percentage, which is elite.

So we have a center who doesn’t protect the rim at a high level, isn’t a dynamic offensive player, and doesn’t seem to be improving in any area outside of his deep shooting. Can Myles Turner still become a borderline All Star-level player? Absolutely. Is he an important part of the Pacers’ future? 100 percent. Nothing he’s done makes either of these an unlikely future outcome.

Next: 2017-18 Week 13 NBA Power Rankings

Just don’t expect to see the player many foresaw emerging when Turner first burst onto the scene any time soon. And that’s totally fine.

For most guys.