Determining the Golden State Warriors’ ideal defensive lineup

The ultra-deep Golden State Warriors can get stops no matter who plays. But what is the team’s ideal five-man defensive lineup?

In the four games since Stephen Curry returned from his sprained ankle, the Golden State Warriors offense has been scorching. The team has dropped an average of 128 points over that stretch, and is posting an offensive rating of 121.1.

Less talked about is the 117 per game they’ve allowed, with a 111.9 defensive rating.

Curry is not the sole reason for this. A lot can happen in a four-game sample, and several opposing players have gotten unreasonably hot. Tyreke Evans, Kobi Simmons, Marc Gasol and James Ennis led Memphis to a 15-of-21 night from 3-point range. Wesley Matthews hit seven triples the next game, followed by Gerald Green hitting eight. Curry is also not a bad defender for his position, given his anticipation, penchant for forcing turnovers, willingness to compete on ball and plus rebounding as a point guard.

Still, there is a marked difference with the two-time MVP out. During his 11-game absence, the Warriors had a defensive rating of 98.7, outpacing their 101.9 rating overall.

This makes sense. Less Curry means more Shaun Livingston, Patrick McCaw, Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson, all of whom are better wing stoppers than he.

Who is the best of that bunch, though? Who do they pair best with in the frontcourt? Let’s try and uncover the Warriors’ best defensive lineup.

The three locks

This discussion has to start with Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala. Green is the best defensive player alive, while no other Warriors players can guard either backcourt position like Thompson. Iguodala is among the smartest wing defenders in the NBA, and an equal menace on the ball and away from it. All three are extremely cerebral, and if they conserve any energy, it’s on the offensive side.

The Warriors also rely on this trio against the very best teams. Iguodala is Golden State’s best LeBron James defender, while Green is second. Thompson defends James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard, while Green takes on Anthony Davis, Kristaps Porzingis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Jokic.

Each player also has the versatility to fit with any and all of their teammates. Green can play the 4 or the 5, and switch onto any player in the league. Iguodala and Thompson can defend 1-3, and do a solid job against bigger, stronger players. Steve Kerr cannot devise a defensive lineup that is better off without one of these guys.

The ideal fourth and fifth guys

Beyond Green, Thompson and Iguodala, the Warriors’ best defenders are Kevin Durant, Shaun Livingston, Zaza Pachulia, David West and Jordan Bell. Omri Casspi offers nothing over Durant, while McCaw is a weaker (literally and figuratively) version of Iguodala. Curry and Kevon Looney are too physically limited, while Nick Young does not warrant any consideration.

On the other end of the spectrum are Bell and Durant. They are not only two of the best help shot-blockers in the NBA, but possess the mobility to guard the perimeter, and can cover the entire court in a Green-esque way.

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When these two play with Green, Thompson and Iguodala, the results are otherworldly. They allow 54.5 points per 100 possessions, ranking first among the 16 Warriors five-man units that have played at least 20 minutes together.

The conversation cannot end here though. For one, the six games and 43 possessions this unit has shared is a minuscule sample size. Just because it looks as good empirically as it does in theory does not mean there is no noise in this sample.

There are also some deficiencies that need to be considered. This group grabs just 60.6 percent of defensive rebounds, which places it in the zeroth percentile league-wide. Shutting down a given possession is one thing, but preventing extra ones is part of defense.

Of course, defensive rating factors in rebounding. The question is, over a larger sample, what would change more: the per-possession success or the rebounding woes? The latter seems more likely, considering the make-or-miss nature of shooting, and how opponents would gameplan should Kerr feature the lineup more frequently.

Other iterations

Should the Warriors opt for more traditional size, Pachulia is the best option. He may be the most athletically-challenged player on the team (if not in the league), but that does not mean he doesn’t have physical tools. Pachulia is as big and strong as they come, and he uses this size to box out and defend the post at an elite level. Teams can punish a Green-Bell frontline with traditional bigs, but not a Green-Pachulia one.

In the 103 possessions that Pachulia has played alongside Green, Thompson and Iguodala, the Warriors defensive rating is 85.7. That’s a far cry from 54.5, but it’s still ridiculous, and arguably more impressive given the much larger data set. Pachulia’s presence completely alters the rebounding landscape, as this group grabs 78 percent of defensive boards (67th percentile).

One issue, though: Not a single one of those 103 possessions have come with Durant as the fifth guy. Rather, all of them have come with Curry.

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This is largely due to Kerr’s rotations and the need for a point guard on the floor, but it also has to do with the fact that Durant’s skills are somewhat redundant alongside Pachulia, Green and Iguodala. More shot blocking and rebounding never hurts, but what this unit really needs is someone to double hard in the post, defend the point and chase cutters off ball. Curry is not the best option to do those things, but he is a more logical one than Durant.

As for the best option, that would be Livingston. He essentially combines the length of Durant with the quickness of Curry, all with a better I.Q. than either. As the closest thing to a backup point guard the Warriors have, Kerr can keep credible floor balance offensively while giving the defense exactly what it needs.

Livingston has not played a single possession with a Thompson-Iguodala-Green-Pachulia lineup this year, but he has played 70 with West in Pachulia’s place. That group allows just 82.1 points per 100 possessions, while grabbing 77.3 percent of defensive rebounds.

That leaves one question: West or Pachulia? West fairs slightly better alongside Thompson, Iguodala and Green, but has Livingston instead of Curry to help him.

The eye test says West. He’s more mobile than Pachulia, a better shot-blocker and a fighter on the glass. While Pachulia is a better box out guy, he can be victimized in the pick-and-roll against elite competition in a way West cannot. Given this, the Warriors’ best purely defensive lineup should feature Livingston, Thompson, Iguodala, Green and West.

Next: 2017-18 Week 12 NBA Power Rankings

Of course, that group has played zero minutes together. Given that the Warriors have a dozen good defensive players, it may never need to.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com and CleaningTheGlass.com