Indiana Pacers: The unheralded Thaddeus Young is key to the future

The Indiana Pacers are off to a surprising start thanks to Thaddeus Young, but the team will have a tough decision to make about him this summer.

If you’re old (like me) and you worry about getting fat (like me), this has surely happened to you at least once: after making it a point to eat your small, healthy breakfast of yogurt and fruit and mentally prepare yourself for the slog to lunch, you walk into work and there’s a tray of complimentary bagels free for the taking. Damn you, deli down the block, always looking for good will.

You’ve never been one to turn down free food, and – wait, let me check – yup, they’re still warm. The temptation is brutal. How strong is a simple man expected to be, really?

That’s the situation facing the Indiana Pacers this offseason. They walked into 2017-18 fully expecting that this year might be a long one, but one that would be worth the pain. A top pick in a loaded draft class makes losses a lot easier to stomach, as does the potential to have oodles of cap space to spend.

Well guess who’s ahead of schedule? Sitting with a record of 19-18, good enough for eighth in the East, the Pacers are definitely feeling themselves. Even with their current four-game slide thanks to Victor Oladipo being sidelined with a sore knee, Indiana now feels like it has the core that can compete for years to come.

Without knowing where this season will end up, what’s certain is that decisions the Pacers didn’t even think they’d have to make are now going to face them front and center. Choosing incorrectly could take this promising, feel-good story and upend it before it ever had a chance. A free bagel today equals unwanted salary flotsam tomorrow.

Starting this week, I’ll be taking a look at the biggest of Indiana’s upcoming offseason decisions periodically through the rest of the season. The first one under the microscope is about a player who hasn’t garnered many headlines, but who is as important to what they’ve been doing as anyone.

A Young man’s game

Amidst all the (justified) excitement over ‘Dipo’s rise to prominence and the flashes of brilliance from young bigs Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young’s brilliant season has gotten lost in the shuffle.

He should be used to it by now. Young has spent more time as an interesting name in trade rumors than as a contributor to winning teams over the course of his career. He always seems to be sitting on the fence of the asset test in basketball-nerd discussions: probably worth his salary, but not a guy you’d call underpaid either.

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This season he’s blowing that all out of the water. Very quietly, Thad Young has the best on/off metrics of any Pacer. Indiana plays like a top-five team when he’s on the court and a bottom-five unit when he’s off. Only Victor Oladipo comes close to matching the difference.

Well, clearly he’s benefiting from spending so much time on the floor with his soon-to-be first-time All-Star shooting guard, right?

Not so much.

According to Cleaningtheglass.com, over the 448 possessions Young has played without Oladipo, the Pacers sport a -0.1 net rating — the definition of league average. Meanwhile, during the 429 possessions Dipo’s played without Thad, Indiana is a -2.3.

How’s he doing it? The same way he always has: efficient, mistake-free basketball on both ends.

On defense, as usual, Young is among the leaders at his position in steals (97th percentile, via CTG) and seldom fouls anyone (77th percentile). On offense, over a third of his shots are mid-rangers — more than most big men — but he’s making them at a career-high rate, and his 35 percent mark from deep is good enough to keep defenses honest.

He also almost never turns the ball over despite a respectable 17 percent usage rate and the fact that 40 percent of his shots are unassisted, according to NBA.com – higher than normal for a big man.

Pay the man

All of this stellar play couldn’t have come at a better time for Young. The former Yellow Jacket has a player option on his contract for next season at $13.7 million. He’s made just about $80 million over his NBA career, and with his 30th birthday coming this June, this might be Young’s last chance at a big payday.

Looking at last summer’s free agency spending patterns, that $13.7 million figure is right around what Young should expect to get on the open market if he’s seeking a three- or four-year deal. Four years, $60 million is a best guess at the most a team would ante up for his services, although three for $48 sounds more likely. Either way, Young is a near certainty to test the waters.

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For the Pacers, bringing Young back would seem to be an easy decision. If they decline Al Jefferson’s partially guaranteed team option (very likely) and pick up Lance’s 2018-19 salary of $4.3 million (shockingly a safe bet at this point), they could give Young a slight raise and still have over $20 million in space. That’s a decent amount for a team that’s not exactly a primo free agent destination.

But this is the NBA, and things are never as simple as they seem.

Myles Turner is eligible to sign his first big contract this offseason, and the Pacers will likely want to get that wrapped up ASAP. The Pacers will have more money coming off the books in the summer of 2019, so Turner’s impending deal shouldn’t impact what they do with Young, but it’s at least a consideration.

There’s a bigger question looming though. Indiana’s best possible version of itself might be with Turner and Sabonis starting side by side. The pair has struggled immensely on defense in limited minutes, but it’s a pairing the Pacers would be wise to explore more. If the two kiddos do end up as the starting frontcourt tandem, Young would be still be a valuable bench cog, albeit a pricy one.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

The safe bet is that the Pacers don’t screw around. After years of looking for a home, Young seems to have found one, and that’s valuable to a player who has seemingly never been used to his full potential until this season. Look for Thad to remain brightly clad in Pacers gold for the foreseeable future.