Philadelphia 76ers: Is Dario Saric the long-term answer?

Now into his second NBA season, the Philadelphia 76ers will soon need to ascertain whether forward Dario Saric remains in their long-term thinking.

Standing 6’10” and with the ability to put the ball on the floor and shoot from distance, the Philadelphia 76ers are understandably bullish about the prospects of forward Dario Saric.

Following a promising rookie campaign that saw his finish second in Rookie of the Year voting, Saric has thus far started in 24 of the Sixers’ first 29 games. So while his numbers of 12.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.2 assists in 30.0 minutes per game appear solid on paper, they leave a bit more to be desired after taking a deeper look.

Through 29 games, Saric is shooting 42.1 percent from the field and just 33.6 percent from 3-point range. More specifically, here are some of the areas where Saric has failed to produce:

Catch-and-shoot: 34.8 percent
Spot-up: 33.6 percent
Jump shot: 33.5 percent
Layups: 45.5 percent

Overall, the overriding feature of Saric’s game at the offensive end that has suffered has been his consistency. Thus far this season, Saric has produced seven games of scoring 17 points or greater, while also producing 10 games where he failed to reach double figures. Unfortunately, when Saric has produced an elite performance this season, it’s often been followed up with a subpar performance.

Here’s how he has fared following his four 20-point games this season:

25 points followed by 13 points
21 points followed by 8 points
24 points followed by 18 points
27 points followed by 11 points

The last example given covers the Sixers’ two most recent games. Without the services of center Joel Embiid, Saric stepped up with 27 points and eight rebounds in a loss to the Chicago Bulls. However, he followed this up with an 11-point, nine-rebound game in a home loss to the Sacramento Kings, shooting just 3-of-10 from the field.

While Saric’s contributions on the offensive end have widely fluctuated, his impact on the defensive end has also been slightly underwhelming. Through 29 games, the Sixers have been 5.6 points per 100 possessions better off defensively when Saric has been resting.

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Although he has the agility to defend a variety of frontcourt players. his lack of true athleticism can make him a target for opposing teams in either taking him off the dribble or attacking him down low. This season, Saric’s opponents have shot at a 62.5 percent clip in 21 post-up possessions. At just 223 pounds, and lacking overall explosiveness, such physical deficiencies can make Saric vulnerable at the defensive end.

Furthermore, 22 of Saric’s 29 games this season have failed to produce a blocked shot, despite having the imposing presence of center Joel Embiid next to him.

Additionally, here’s Saric’s scouting report from the highly reputable Draft Express leading up to the 2014 NBA Draft in regards to his defensive output:

"“He played almost exclusively at power forward the past two seasons, and even if he’s gotten stronger, it will be difficult for him to match up inside the paint with some of the stronger players he’ll encounter at that position in the NBA….Saric will likely see more time at the small forward position against higher level competition, but there are some question marks here as well. His lateral quickness is average, and he often looks either hunched over in his stance or completely on his heels, getting frequently burned by smaller players on the perimeter.”"

Fast forward to the present, and the same questions in regards to strength and lateral quickness remain.

As an aside, and while it’s accompanied by a funny caption, the following highlight from Rob Perez somewhat highlights Saric’s lack of presence down low, albeit against a rampaging Russell Westbrook:

https://twitter.com/World_Wide_Wob/status/941866318319570944

Thus far in his 110-game career, Saric has suffered with inconsistency at the offensive end, while being unable to fully establish himself at the defensive end. One prime example is that through this early part of the season, Saric has produced a defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) of 111.2 when Embiid has been off the floor — a huge discrepancy compared to his overall rating of 106.3.

But one large factor in his favor: the backing of head coach Brett Brown. As Brown detailed during Saric’s rookie season:

"“I love Dario Saric, just the whole thing, everything about him and I truly mean that….Blue collar, bull in a China shop mentality….I think he just does so much, and cares so much, and represents almost everything that I’m trying to get to grow our program and have the city be proud of us….He sure brings a pride, and a spirit and a toughness that you want your culture to represent. I’m very proud of how he’s jumped into the NBA in a very real way.”"

Next: 2017-18 Week 10 NBA Power Rankings

With Embiid and Ben Simmons having every chance of debuting as All-Stars this season, this dynamic duo is going to need all the help it can get as the Sixers strive to earn their first playoff appearance since 2012. So while he clearly has the backing of his coach, Saric is going to need to improve his production if he’s to remain a key member of the Sixers moving forward.