Lightyears Ahead, Pt. 2: The future of the Golden State Warriors’ forward positions

The Golden State Warriors are set up dominate the NBA for years. But what comes after that? In Part II of “Lightyears Ahead,” we examine the future of the Warriors’ forward positions.

The Golden State Warriors‘ starting backcourt is easy to package as one entity. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are both all-time great shooters, maybe the two greatest. They are both sons of former NBA players, both unassuming physically and both admired—and hated—for their ascent from mid-lottery picks to superstars.

There is far less tying together Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. They dominate on opposite ends of the court. One has the skill of a guard with the height of a center, while the other has the skill of a center with the height of a guard. Both were terrific in college, but only one was seen as an elite NBA prospect. Durant had a famous ad campaign based on him being “too nice,” while Green was suspended from the NBA Finals for hitting multiple people below the belt and calling LeBron James a “b****.”

In their year-and-a-half together, however, the duo is starting to resemble one another. It is Durant who has done most of the shifting. He has adopted Green’s penchant for trash talk and technicals, and become a versatile switching defender and rim protector in the 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year’s mold.

Ejections aside, the two are as key to Golden State’s dominance as Curry and Thompson. As the Warriors move into the next phases of their development, keeping each starting forward around will be crucial. Here’s a look at how they can do it, and how they can provide them the support they need as they age over the next 3-5 years.

The three-year plan

There is virtually no scenario in which Durant does not sign a five-year deal next summer. Curry is already locked up, and Durant will qualify for the 10-year max. A one-plus-one no longer makes sense for either side, and Curry and Durant should be set to carry this Warriors team far into the future.

Whether their co-stars come along for the ride is more complicated. It is possible that both Thompson and Green are lifers, but neither will want to take the gargantuan paycut necessary to keep the other. Sure, Joe Lacob and Peter Guber could technically give both guys max deals, but the team’s tax bill would shatter all previous records. This would in turn limit Bob Myers’ ability to build quality depth, as well as to retain emerging youngsters.

In other words, the Warriors will probably have to choose between Thompson and Green.

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Given Curry and Durant’s historical offensive exploits, Thompson is the more expendable of the two. However, his contract expires first, and Golden State will not part with him simply in anticipation of re-signing Green.

This could serve as a tiebreaker in Thompson’s favor. If Myers really wants Green more, though, there is a way around it. The Warriors can extend Green in the summer of 2019, a year before his contract ends. He will be super-max eligible given his 2016-17 Defensive Player of the Year award, but he may not demand it. His below-market deal in 2015 paved the way for the 2016 Durant signing, after all.

If Durant and Green stay, both will be high-level starters, if not still superstars, in 2020-21. Behind the two future Hall-of-Famers, however, nobody is in the pipeline.

Patrick McCaw is a natural 2, and Jordan Bell will see the majority of his run at center. Kevon Looney can play some 4, but is a long shot to be re-signed next summer. The Warriors are likely to focus their drafting efforts at forward over the next few years, though picking at the end of the first or in the second round is always a low-percentage proposition. That being said, Green, McCaw, Bell and Looney were all acquired this way.

Andre Iguodala will be 36 in 2020, and Shaun Livingston—who might be more of a 3 than a 1 by that point—will be 35. Omri Casspi has seemingly found a home in Golden State, but is hard to project him as a mainstay. If he sticks around, it will be on a year-to-year basis.

Given inevitable salary cap constraints, the Warriors will have to cobble together depth however possible. The most likely blend is an upcoming draft pick, an aging Livngston or Iguodala and a ring-chasing veteran at the Mid-Level Exception. Jonathon Simmons will be a free agent that summer, as will Paul Millsap, Marvin Williams and Jae Crowder.

If Green leaves, everything changes. Bell becomes more valuable as a 4, but the big question will be whether to slide up Durant full-time.

That will primarily ride on who the Dubs replace Green with, of course. Should they land a quality defender with some playmaking skills at the 3, Durant will thrive as a small-ball 4. Should they instead acquire a more stationary stretch-4 (which is more realistic given the lower demand and higher supply of those types), Durant will remain a small forward.

Predicted 2020-21 forward depth chart:

SF: Kevin Durant, Jonathon Simmons, Shaun Livingston
PF: Draymond Green, (future draft pick), Luol Deng

Seeing Green here might seem to contradict what I wrote earlier about the Warriors having to choose between Thompson and Green. I predicted the team would re-sign Thompson in Part 1, so why am I doing the same for Green?

It is true that if Thompson stays, Green is likely to leave. The inverse is also true. If the goal was to predict the 2020-21 roster with complete accuracy, I would have omitted one of the two. Such a perfect projection is impossible, though. Therefore, the goal is to predict what is most likely in each individual scenario. Given that Green and Thompson are more likely to both stay than to both leave, there is over a 50 percent chance that each player will be a Warrior in three years.

The five-year plan

Green’s status will be no different in 2022 than it is in 2020. If he does re-sign, it will be for more than two years.

Given Durant’s lack of Bird Rights, he can only sign a four-year deal next summer. That puts him back on the market, along with Curry, in 2022.

While Curry may be a better “homecoming” candidate (his desire to play in Charlotte is far stronger than Durant’s to play in Washington, D.C.), he is also a better lifetime-achievement contract candidate. The Warriors would not take the same image hit for refusing to overpay an aging Durant as they would if they played hardball with Curry. Durant may also feel less of a connection to the Bay Area, given his shorter tenure.

Of course, he might also still be a dominant player. Durant without elite athleticism will still be a 6’10” guy with an all-time jumper, terrific skill and freakish length. Even at age 34, he should be a better-defensive version of post-prime Dirk Nowitzki—you know, the one who beat prime LeBron in the Finals.

Green will decline faster, but his potential to fall off has been overstated. He is the league’s highest I.Q. defender and among its hardest workers. Neither skill depreciates with age.

Undersized players do suffer more when they lose a step, and Green thrives on being everywhere at once. But even rookie Draymond—among the most unathletic players in the league—was impossible to keep off the floor. He’ll still be a high-impact guy at 32.

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Durant will essentially be a power forward by 2022. He’ll still play the 3 if Green is around, but if not, he and a 32-year-old Thompson will likely occupy the forward spots. It is also possible that an older Green plays more center, though it is difficult to age up a position when you are so undersized.

Even with Green, Myers will want to maximize Steve Kerr‘s ability to play Durant at the 4. That means a primary focus on building wing depth. With the Iguodalas and Livingstons retired at this point, a defensive, playmaking bench anchor will be a must.

It is obviously impossible to project who will be available five years out. Blake Griffin, T.J. Warren and Robert Covington are the only forwards with existing contracts that expire that year. We can assume that several 2015 draftees will sign four-year extensions next fall, as will 2014 draftees that did not extend this year. On top of that, 2017 guys that take the qualifying offer will also be available.

Jerami Grant, Stanley Johnson, Sam Dekker, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Josh Jackson, Justin Jackson, Terrance Ferguson and Semi Ojeleye all project to fit the Warriors’ mold defensively. They all need work as outside shooters (to varying degrees), but we’re talking 2022. If all these guys are still throwing up bricks at that point, the league will be even more wing-deprived than it is now.

Next: 2017-18 Week 10 NBA Power Rankings

Predicted 2022-23 forward depth chart:

SF: Kevin Durant, Josh Jackson, Jonathon Simmons
PF: Draymond Green, (future draft pick), Joe Ingles