The Golden State Warriors are set up dominate the NBA for years. But what comes after that? In Part I of “Lightyears Ahead,” we examine the future of the Warriors’ backcourt.
When then-Golden State Warriors head coach Mark Jackson called Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson the “greatest shooting backcourt in the history of the game,” it was the subject of controversy. Two titles, two MVPs and dozens of shooting and scoring records later, the debate has shifted to whether or not they are the best backcourt of all-time, period.
It has been a breathtaking six-plus years for the Splash Brothers, who show no signs of slowing down. Golden State’s front office, however, does not need signs to begin planning ahead. Contracts end, older players decline, money opens up and younger players develop.
Here is a look at the potential pivot points facing the Warriors’ backcourt over the next 3-5 years, and how general manager Bob Myers and company may react.
The three-year plan
Curry may or may not be a Warrior for life, but he will be in three years. Other than retirement-tourers Dirk Nowitzki and Manu Ginobili, there is not a player in the NBA less likely to get traded on their current deal. Not LeBron James, not James Harden, not Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Thompson’s future status is much more complicated. His career year (50.7 percent from the field and 46.2 percent from deep) has him primed to land on an All-NBA Team, which will make him eligible for a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DPVE, or supermax) next summer. The Warriors would be wise to hold off in that situation, though it may frustrate Thompson.
By avoiding the DVPE, the front office can take another season to decide how to proceed. Failure to make a 2018-19 All-NBA Team will relinquish Thompson’s supermax eligibility, as he will have neither made the most recent All-NBA Team nor two of the previous three (he was beaten out by DeMar DeRozan for a spot on last year’s Third Team).
This would make the decision to max out Thompson a cheaper and simpler one for the Warriors. If he is eligible for a supermax, the team will have to decide between him and Draymond Green. As last year’s Defensive Player of the Year, Green will be eligible for a supermax extension in the summer of 2019. Myers could take a similar wait-and-see approach with Green, who could theoretically lose eligibility before his contract expires in 2020, but doing so must be predicated on not supermaxing Thompson (teams can only have two Designated Players at a time, and Curry is already one).
Blue Man Hoop
If Thompson stays, he and Curry will continue to dominate. While Curry could start to see his shot creating ability take a hit at age 32, a 30-year-old Thompson should still have several elite two-way years left. Really, both are such historically terrific shooters that the normal aging curve probably will not apply.
The guys behind them, however, will change in both name and role. Steve Kerr is as obsessive about keeping his players fresh as any coach other than Gregg Popovich. We’ve seen fewer and fewer minutes for Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala as they age, and the same should hold true for the team’s stars.
Livingston’s current deal will expire in 2020. Whether he keeps playing or not at that point, he is unlikely to be a rotation guard. It’s entirely possible that he slides up to the 3 for his final years, but the Warriors will need a true backup 1 as Curry enters his post-prime.
That player will not be hard to find with the Mid-Level Exception. It might be a ring-chasing vet (Kyle Lowry, George Hill and Goran Dragic will all hit free agency at age 34 that summer), a journeyman backup on their next stop (Darren Collison, Jerryd Bayless, Jeremy Lin) or the next Livingston, a reformed semi-bust a la Brandon Knight.
Like the corresponding starting spot, there are more variables when projecting the backup 2. It could be Patrick McCaw, who will hit restricted free agency this summer. The Warriors do not look forward to paying him, but will be pressured to given his status as the only talented young wing on the team.
At 25, McCaw is likely to be a starting-caliber player. He’s already shooting 49.3 percent from the field and 40.6 from 3-point range this season, while averaging 0.6 steals in just 13.1 minutes with a better than 3-to-1 assist to turnover ratio.
Letting him walk this summer will look especially foolish if Thompson ends up leaving. That seems unlikely, but it is not unfathomable that the Warriors’ fourth-most talked about star might want to experience being The Guy before he declines. The most likely scenario is that both McCaw and Thompson are still on the team, with McCaw in the Andre Iguodala role as the primary backup 2 and 3.
Predicted 2020-21 backcourt depth chart:
PG: Stephen Curry, George Hill, Tyler Ennis
SG: Klay Thompson, Patrick McCaw
The five-year plan
Any new contract Thompson signs will be longer than two seasons. If he is the starting shooting guard in three years, he will be in five.
The same cannot be said for Curry as the point guard, nor McCaw as a backup.
It is extremely unlikely that Curry signs anywhere other than back with the Warriors in 2022 free agency. However, if the team’s title window seems to be closing, there’s at least a small chance that he returns home to Charlotte for the end of his career. This goes from a tiny to significant probability if the Warriors’ front office takes a hard negotiating line, much as Pat Riley did to drive Dwyane Wade to his hometown in 2016.
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Of course, Myers is likely to learn from Riley’s mistake. The Heat have struggled to make headway in free agency since Wade’s departure, and the millions saved have not been worth the image stain. Curry’s shooting means he will also be a much more dynamic player than Wade was at 34, health permitting.
If he and Thompson stay, McCaw will probably move on. He will either be too good and too expensive to remain a backup (whenever he hits unrestricted free agency, it will be in or before 2022), or will have stagnated and be ready for a change of scenery. A 34-year-old Curry and 32-year-old Thompson will need a quality backup, ideally a combo guard who can fill in for either and play next to the other.
If Thompson leaves in 2019, Curry and McCaw will have settled in as a well-balanced tandem by 2022. Like Thompson, McCaw should be able to defend the best opposing guard every night while spacing the floor on offense. He will never have Thompson’s shooting or explosive scoring ability, but is a more natural ball-handler and passer, and may allow an aging Curry to play more away from the ball.
On the off-chance that Curry does go to Charlotte, do not expect the Warriors to seek a stop-gap. They will still have at least two if not three future Hall of Famers, an elite coach (let’s keep this fun and assume Kerr is physically capable of keeping his job for multiple decades) and will be printing money out of the Chase Center.
Who will be a target? That’s the tricky part. It’s obviously too early to tell, but the list of young point guards who are logically on track to hit the market in 2022 is not extraordinary: Dante Exum, Marcus Smart and Elfrid Payton. Unless a member of the talented 2017 point guard class takes the qualifying offer in 2021 or Oakland native Damian Lillard signs a one-year deal that same summer, the options will be thin.
Of course, this is all a mute point if Curry stays, which is as close to a given as it gets when projecting this far out.
Next: 2017-18 Week 9 NBA Power Rankings
Predicted 2022-23 backcourt depth chart:
PG: Stephen Curry, Cory Joseph
SG: Klay Thompson, E’Twaun Moore, Wayne Selden