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Golden State Warriors: Who is Steve Kerr’s go-to shooting wing?

By Simon Cherin-Gordon

(Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)
(Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images) /
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Nick Young, Omri Casspi and Patrick McCaw give the Golden State Warriors excellent wing depth. But who is leading the race for playoff minutes when the rotations shrink?

Omri Casspi, Nick Young and Patrick McCaw do not have much in common. They are different sizes, have varying play styles and span a decade in age. Yet with the way the Golden State Warriors roster is constructed, they are essentially in competition for the same minutes.

There is room for overlap, especially in the regular season. Steve Kerr likes to keep his entire roster engaged, and goes at least 11 deep on most nights. In the playoffs, that rotation will shrink. It can still change from game to game, but a breakdown of the guaranteed minutes reveals that there is only one more wing spot to go around.

Last postseason, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green averaged roughly 140 minutes altogether. Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston combined for about 40 more. Zaza Pachulia, David West and JaVale McGee competed for just over 30 of the remaining 60, while McCaw, Ian Clark and Matt Barnes fought over the rest.

This spring, that battle will be between McCaw, Young and Casspi. There are still 62 remaining games for these three to prove themselves, but many trends have already emerged.

Nick Young

Young is, for the most part, a better Clark. Both are natural shooting guards who can knock down open 3s, but Young has the size and strength to defend the position.

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He can also hit tougher shots at a better rate. Young is currently doubling Clark’s 3-point output from last season (1.6 per game for Young, compared to 0.8 for Clark) at a higher percentage (39.7 percent to 37.4), despite playing a minute less per game.

This is simultaneously Young’s greatest strength and weakness. His 73 3-point attempts are fourth on the team, not all that far behind Durant’s 95 — despite playing less than half as many minutes. While his attempts are statistically viable (1.19 points per shot), the Warriors’ offense is predicated on leveraging 3-point shooting to get even better looks at the basket.

Clark scored a solid 1.12 points per 3-point shot, but his overall points per shot was 1.15 (or a 57.5 true-shooting percentage). This was due to his ability to attack closeouts and score from the mid-range and floater range, while also leveraging his jumper off-ball. Clark became the team’s best cutter outside of Thompson; he and West in particular formed a special chemistry on backdoor plays.

Clark took less than a third of his shots from deep, while Young takes over two-thirds. Young’s overall points per shot is equal to his points per three (1.19), making him more efficient overall than Clark. Still, given his perimeter exploits, he has the potential to do more. If that sounds nitpicky, look at what his current competition is doing.

Omri Casspi

Over the last four seasons, Casspi has shot over 40 percent from 3. He cannot hit contested triples like Young because of his low release, but can theoretically get just as many attempts up due to his 30-foot range.

His 3-point accuracy has been better than ever this year, connecting 57.1 percent of the time. Of course, Young, against Chicago on Nov. 24 alone, was one 3 away from matching Casspi’s season output. Young was 3-of-6 in that game; Casspi is 4-of-7 on the year. He was 4-of-4 before the Bulls game.

For those who have followed Casspi throughout his career, this number may be perplexing at first glance. But Casspi has embraced the Warriors’ offensive mentality so quickly that he has turned his greatest skill into his greatest decoy. He’s the extreme version of Clark, pump-faking on almost every perimeter catch and either driving to the rim or making the next pass to further compromise a scrambling defense. When he gets the ball back, it is usually after an expert cut to the cup, taking advantage of the chaos he helped create.

Casspi is 19-of-25 at the rim this season, scoring 1.52 points per shot. Young, like Casspi was on 3s until recently, is a perfect 4-of-4 at the rim this season. Casspi’s shot distribution may be a bit extreme, and there is value in finding better balance. Still, if Young were able to trade some of his contested triples for uncontested layups, his true shooting percentage (59.5) would start to approach that of Casspi (67.8).

The 6’9″ Casspi is a better overall defender than the 6’7″ Young, and certainly a better rebounder. Casspi is second on the team to Jordan Bell in defensive rating (95.4), and behind only Pachulia in rebounds per 100 possessions (14.8). Young is second-to-last with 5.0 rebounds per 100 possessions, leading only McCaw (3.1).

Patrick McCaw

Entering the season, McCaw appeared to be the favorite for the bulk of the contested bench wing minutes. He already knew the Warriors’ system, and his game was seemingly the most natural fit.

Theoretically, it still is. Young has better strength to stop bigger guards and Casspi is more impactful around the rim, but McCaw is an extremely high-I.Q. defender, both on and off ball. He’s also the most athletic and most skilled passer in the bunch, and has as much ability to knock down an open 3 (42.1 percent) as Young or Casspi.

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There are two things that are costing McCaw minutes, or at least preventing him from distinguishing himself. The first is his lack of scoring punch. Despite his percentage, McCaw has not been able to shoot with volume from deep (1.1 attempts per game) nor leverage his jumper into layups (11-of-16 at the rim).

Unselfishness is a positive in most basketball situations, but not when you play primarily alongside guys like Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and David West. As talented as it is, Golden State’s bench has a scoring problem, and that’s what Kerr needs from the Young/Casspi/McCaw group.

The other thing hurting McCaw is not his fault: Casspi has just been better than expected. The advantages that McCaw was perceived to have as a playmaker have been non-existent, simply because Casspi has impressed in that realm. And even if McCaw is the more fundamentally sound defender, Casspi’s ability to block shots and grab rebounds fuels the transition game, while his switching has been quite useful.

Moving forward

While they technically play different positions (Casspi is a combo forward, while Young and McCaw are primarily 2s), the versatility of the Warriors’ roster makes them interchangeable. Casspi can play alongside a backcourt of Livingston and Iguodala, while Young or McCaw can push Iguodala to the 3.

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All three players are useful, and each has a case for playoff minutes. With a quarter of the season gone by, however, Casspi appears to be leading the pack with his combination of scoring, efficiency and defensive impact. It wouldn’t hurt to see a few more of those parabolic 3-balls fly, but until Young can improve his shot profile and McCaw can simply increase his, Casspi will look like Kerr’s best option.

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