Denver Nuggets: The duo that could keep them afloat
By Max Carlin
The Denver Nuggets suffered a crushing blow in the loss of Paul Millsap, but one unexpectedly dominant duo could save their season.
The basketball world breathed a collective sigh of relief when news emerged that Paul Millsap’s X-rays had come back negative. Millsap had hurt his wrist the night prior, and the lack of word since had bred concern, with everyone naturally fearing the worst.
He was in the clear, though—bullet dodged. The Denver Nuggets would have to survive a few games—a week or two, at worst—without their star forward.
The next day, The Vertical’s Shams Charania meted out a grapefruit-sized dose of bleh:
Denver All-Star forward Paul Millsap will undergo surgery on his left wrist and be sidelined indefinitely, league sources say.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 21, 2017
We thought he was okay. We thought this was a minor speed bump on the Nuggets’ cruise to the playoffs. Turns out the road might well be closed.
Millsap will reportedly miss up to three months following surgery. For Denver’s playoff chances in a brutal Western Conference, that may prove to be a death blow. Losing a piece of Millsap’s centrality and value will require a great deal of adjustment, especially if the Nuggets are to salvage aspirations of a playoff berth.
The duo of Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap that the Nuggets front office built its roster around last offseason was meeting lofty expectations. They were outscoring opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions, operating at an elite level on both ends of the court.
Recreating that effectiveness without an All-Star in Millsap would not have been a reasonable goal for the Nuggets. However, they are treading water so far.
Kenneth Faried has occupied Millsap’s vacant spot in the starting lineup. I’ve never been Faried’s biggest fan, and theoretically, he should not work with Jokic.
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Neither Faried nor Jokic is a competent defender. Jokic’s struggles are well-documented, but Faried’s might be more pronounced. The Nuggets’ defense has been better with Faried on the bench in every single year of his career.
In 479 minutes last year, the pairing demonstrated its aversion to defense, posting a defensive rating of 110.1.
On paper, the duo should struggle mightily on offense, too. Faried lacks range, only drawing attention from the defense when he’s within five feet of the hoop. There are no work-arounds with him; he must camp in the paint. Jokic, largely due to his unparalleled touch, is one of the league’s most dominant inside players. He’s perfectly capable on the perimeter, but why deploy him where he’s capable rather than dominant?
But here’s the thing: Faried being on the court hasn’t forced Jokic to occupy a less optimal role. In fact, his attempts from 3-point range have actually gone down with Faried on the court this year.
And that’s not where the duo stops defying conventional wisdom. In 130 minutes this year, they’ve produced an impressive offensive rating of 108.3. In the three games since Millsap went down, that number’s skyrocketed to 119.6. Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry have an offensive rating of 119.2 when they share the court.
Clearly, what Faried and Jokic are doing is unsustainable. Two ill-fitting frontcourt partners have not magically become a better offensive duo than (arguably) the two best offensive players on the planet.
Funny thing about that: Faried and Jokic were even better last year. In 479 minutes, they put up an otherworldly offensive rating of 121.
I wish I had an explanation for what they’re doing. It shouldn’t work, but we now have a pretty sizeable sample over two years of them being absolutely unstoppable together. My best way of phrasing this is, admittedly, lame, but it’s truly the best I’ve got: they have chemistry.
Keeping with the theme of being a nuisance, I’ll point out that you really have to watch Faried and Jokic together. They have a way about them, a high level of comfort together; they know each other well, which is something Jokic has spoken to. The stats capture the success that’s a byproduct of their chemistry, but the preternatural connection they share cannot be conveyed through numbers.
Next: 2017-18 Week 6 NBA Power Rankings
The Nuggets had this steamrolling offensive frontcourt in their back pocket all along. Head coach Mike Malone was using it, successfully but sparingly. Now, the Faried-Jokic frontcourt must assume center stage, and if the Nuggets are to keep their postseason dreams alive, the duo’s going to have to keep putting Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry to shame.