Analyzing Chris Paul’s impact on the Houston Rockets
Chris Paul has played three games since returning from a knee injury. How has his return helped the Houston Rockets and his teammates?
Chris Paul has played in three games for the Houston Rockets since returning from a lingering knee injury, and although that is still a small sample to analyze, it does provide a framework for how he will impact the Rockets over the remainder of the season.
It must be said that Houston has been downright dominant in those three games, with double-digit wins over the Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets. Since Paul returned on Nov. 16, the Rockets have the league’s best offensive rating (121.9) and net rating (+26.4) and the third-best defensive rating (95.5).
Paul has been a crucial part of that elite offense as he now gives Mike D’Antoni the ability to have one of him or James Harden on the floor at all times. By doing so, Houston has a Hall of Fame caliber point guard always in control of the offense, which will lead to countless games in which the Rockets score over 125 points.
Perhaps even scarier is the fact that Paul often plays against opposing bench units and backcourts, something that should strike fear in opposing teams on a nightly basis. It simply isn’t fair when you see the Rockets sub James Harden off the floor only to see Chris Paul high-five him as he takes his position at the helm of the offense.
So far this season, Paul is averaging 13.8 points, 9.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds per game while shooting 50 percent from the field and a career-high 45.5 percent from beyond the arc. Paul is only attempting 9.5 shots per game, but that number will jump up as he gets more comfortable in the Rockets’ offense and as he plays more minutes (he has been on a minutes restriction in each of the past three games).
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The advanced statistics shed light on how productive Paul has been this season in the small sample size, as he is posting a 29.8 Player Efficiency Rating, 66.2 true shooting percentage and a staggering .407 win shares/48 minutes (just for reference, the league average is approximately .100). Paul has been as good as advertised since returning from the injury, something that should only improve as he gets more comfortable and plays more minutes.
Paul’s navigation of the offense has been incredible to watch. In past seasons, Rockets fans were used to seeing Harden control the offense and create for others, but now Houston always has one of the two best point guards in the league directing the offense. Paul’s command and control of the pick-and-roll leads to endless scoring options for the Rockets, which was seen in a variety of ways in their win over the Grizzlies.
In this first play, Paul navigates the pick-and-roll and throws a perfect pass to Clint Capela right at the exact moment to give him a quality look at the rim:
In the next two clips, Paul again surveys the floor, taking his time before eventually finding shooters in the corner for two open, high-quality looks:
Paul’s command of an offense never ceases to amaze, and with him being surrounded by shooters and quality big men in the pick-and-roll, is even more unstoppable this season.
Finally, a key aspect of why this partnership between Harden and Paul will work is because both players are quality shooters, especially on catch-and-shoot shots. In that same game, Harden drove to the rim to find Paul open in the corner for a quality look:
Harden and Paul can switch spots in that play and it’s just as deadly, giving the Rockets a potent offense when both are on the floor.
The biggest benefit of Paul’s return is the 48 minutes of Hall of Fame play from the point guard position for the Rockets. Their offense will rarely fall into lulls or stagnate due to the sheer brilliance they will receive from (arguably) the most important offensive position on the floor. Gone are the stretches where Houston’s offense dies without Harden on the floor.
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Enter Chris Paul, a top-10 player in the league, and a player that will spend nearly half of his time each game matching up against opposing benches. Paul and Harden are leading a Rockets team that is quickly putting the rest of the league on notice as they steamroll with their high-powered offense and much improved defense.