The evolution of basketball will always occur faster than expected. The Golden State Warriors will not rule the NBA in five years, no matter how permanent their dominance feels. But how soon will that passing of the torch occur?
After disposing of the Minnesota Timberwolves without Kevin Durant, the Golden State Warriors again look almost invincible. They are on pace to win 62 games, but will probably win more than that, since their three early season losses were by a combined 19 points and their last five wins have been by an average of 22. In this present moment, no one feels like a threat.
With the Philadelphia 76ers coming to Oracle Saturday night, however, the Warriors will catch a glimpse of the not-so-distant future. No matter how overloaded with talent they are, age moves faster than anticipated in the NBA. Young players improve, prime players decline and post-prime players fall off.
Take a look around the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been perpetually one year ahead of expectations, even after we re-calibrate based on the previous year’s underestimation. He was supposed to be a starter by 22, then a star, then a superstar, then an MVP candidate. Instead, he’s the MVP favorite already.
Kristaps Porzingis, also 22, has taken off in his third season, joining Antetokounmpo as the league’s other 30-plus points per game scorer. Anthony Davis, 24, is averaging 27.3 points and 12.5 rebounds a night while shattering his old standards of efficiency by trading mid-rangers for 3s.
And then there’s Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, who will both face the Warriors for the first time on Saturday. Embiid, hopefully past his injury woes, combines the skill and size of DeMarcus Cousins with nearly the height of Porzingis and nearly the athleticism of Davis.
Simmons, just 11 games into his NBA career, is averaging 17.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.8 blocks on 50 percent shooting. His versatility has drawn comparisons to Draymond Green, but his rookie year dominance more closely resembles Kevin Durant.
Blue Man Hoop
In 2007-08, Durant burst on to the scene as one of the biggest physical freaks in NBA history. He was listed at 6’9″, but really was 6’10”, with a 7’5″ wingspan and the skill-set of a 2-guard. A decade later, Durant is arguably the best basketball player alive.
His status as a one-of-a-kind freak, however, is gone. In 2012, five draft classes after Durant, Davis was considered to be a generational talent. At 6’11” with a 7’5″ wingspan, insane athletic ability, ball handling and a jump shot, he was unlike any big man ever seen before. Now, he is just one of many.
Antetokounmpo was called the “Greek Kevin Durant” before the 2013 NBA Draft, and this, in turn, was classified as blasphemy and hyperbole. Four-plus years later, Antetokounmpo is on track to win his first scoring title at just one year older than Durant did, while already dominating as a playmaker and defender in ways that it took Durant years to even approach. The “Kevin Durant” has long since been replaced by “Freak” in the latter part of his nickname.
2014 brought Embiid, 2015 Porzingis and Karl-Anthony Towns, and 2016 Simmons. Had Simmons come along 30 years ago, he might be Magic Johnson. Today, he is one of many young stars with with big man size, wing athleticism and guard skills.
We may never see a team like the Warriors again, in terms of having two MVPs at the height of their powers flanked by two other All-Stars at the height of theirs, with a terrific bench, elite coach and top-to-bottom buy-in and unselfishness.
But we’ll also never see a team like the 1960s Celtics, and even today’s worst teams would shred those Celtics (seriously, watch these highlights and tell me Dewayne Dedmon and Dennis Schroder would not run circles around Bill Russell and Bob Cousy).
Things do not change as dramatically in five years as they do in 50, but they do change. Today, Simmons resembles Durant and Green. Tomorrow, he could be beating them.
Next: 2017-18 Week 4 NBA Power Rankings
He could tonight as well, though that still seems unlikely. The Warriors will look to win their sixth-straight game by 17 or more points — a testament to their current status as league alpha dogs, but certainly not a guarantee it will last five years from now.