Houston Rockets: The potential effects of Chris Paul’s return
The Houston Rockets have had Chris Paul for one game so far this season. However, he is set to return in the coming week or two. How will he change things?
The Houston Rockets have gotten off to a strong 8-3 start, especially when you consider that Chris Paul hasn’t played in 10 of the team’s first 11 games. Since Paul went down with discomfort and pain in his knee during Houston’s opening night win over the Golden State Warriors, it’s been a familiar scene for the Rockets, as James Harden has assumed the role he had last season as the primary ball-handler and creator.
However, Paul’s absence has led to several things, most notably increased playing time and offensive burden on players such as Harden and Eric Gordon, as well as an offensive drop-off when Harden is off the floor.
Due to Paul being out, the Rockets’ guard rotation, which was already very thin, took a big hit. By inserting Gordon in to the starting lineup in place of Paul, this led to either A) an end of the bench guard such a Bobby Brown or Demetrius Jackson receiving playing time or B) staggering Harden and Gordon effectively in order to ensure that one is on the floor at all times. More often than not Mike D’Antoni decided to go with the latter, which has placed a heavy offensive burden on both guards.
Unlike having Paul to run the second unit alongside Gordon, Mike D’Antoni has decided to have Gordon serve as the de-facto point guard of the second unit with Luc Mbah a Moute handling secondary ball-handling duties. Gordon has gotten off to a hot start, but the offense is still suffering without Harden on the floor.
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Per Cleaning The Glass, the Rockets score 16.1 points per 100 possessions more with Harden on the floor than when he is resting. Although Gordon is a capable ball-handler and creator, he is best suited playing off-ball alongside a great point guard like Harden or Paul, a role he will assume when the team is fully healthy.
Because of his prominent role with Paul out, Gordon is attempting a career high in shots per game (17.1) and is nearly matching his career high in usage percentage (29.3). Gordon has been better than expected this season, and Paul’s return should only improve his production and contributions.
Paul’s return will likely solve the offensive problems for the second units. As seen in the preseason and the first regular season game, D’Antoni will take Paul out fairly early in the first and third quarters in order to bring him back in for the second and fourth quarters as the point guard for the “bench” lineups. This way, the Rockets will have a Hall of Fame point guard on the floor for all 48 minutes of a game, which should allow their offense to maintain an elite level of production.
Another effect to watch for when Paul returns is the team’s pace. Currently, the Rockets are just 13th in pace after being third in that category last season. It’s very possible that the heavy burden and minutes placed on players such as Harden and Gordon is preventing them from running the floor in transition consistently. However, Paul is notorious for playing at a slow, methodical pace as he picks apart defenses.
When Paul returns, will he push the pace like Mike D’Antoni desires? Even without Paul, will Harden and the rest of the team continue to push the pace to reach last season’s pace? It will be something to keep your eye on throughout the rest of the season.
Finally, Paul’s return will allow Harden and Gordon to play fewer minutes (and play with a smaller offensive burden), which will be very important throughout the regular season as the Rockets prepare for (what they hope is) an extended playoff run.
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Although the Rockets are flying high without Paul, his return will be extremely important and valuable as it will likely solve the offensive drop-off when Harden is off the floor and allow players to play less and more comfortably alongside Paul.