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Houston Rockets: Early 2017-18 season trends and impressions

By Eric Spyropoulos

CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 27: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets brings the ball up the court against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on October 27, 2017 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTE, NC - OCTOBER 27: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets brings the ball up the court against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on October 27, 2017 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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With the season being 10 games in, what are some early trends, impressions and developments for the Houston Rockets as they look to contend?

The Houston Rockets currently sit at 7-3, having played nine of their first 10 games without Chris Paul and seven coming on the road. So considering those factors, it is an impressive start for Houston.

Certain players are playing more aggressive (Eric Gordon), while others have taken another step in their development (Clint Capela). Of course, James Harden is leading the way as usual for a team that has looked drastically different at times during this first part of the season.

With the 2017-18 season being 10 games in, let’s take a look at some trends and impressions from the Rockets during this early season stretch.

Shooting and pace are much lower than expected

So far this season, the Rockets lead the league in 3-pointers attempted at 45.1per game. That is not a surprise. What is a surprise is that when searching team 3-point percentage, you have to scroll all the way down to 28th in the league to find Houston. Yes, the Rockets are 28th in the league, hitting just 31.7 percent of their 3-pointers.

Now, Houston has never been a lights-out shooting team. Last season they finished 15th in 3-point percentage at 35.7 percent, and the year before that they finished even lower at 34.7 percent. It wasn’t expected that Houston would shoot over 38 percent as a team, but their current rate of 31.7 percent is still much lower than previous seasons. And for a team that attempts as many 3s as the Rockets do, that four percent difference is fairly significant.

While Harden and Ryan Anderson are shooting 36.8 and 37.3 percent respectively, everyone else on the roster is struggling from beyond the arc. Here are some of their numbers:

While it’s not entirely shocking that Tucker and Mbah a Moute are struggling so much on 3-pointers, Eric Gordon and Ariza shooting that poorly is very surprising.

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However, it’s likely that over the course of the next month or two the Rockets’ shooting reverts back to the mean and jumps back up to around 35 percent, which will make their offense even more explosive.

Another interesting trend from the Rockets so far this season is their much slower pace. This season, Houston is just 15th in pace, compared to last season in which they were third in the league. Many expected the Rockets to slow down with the addition of Paul, but he hasn’t played since the first game of the season.

It’s possible that the heavy minutes the key rotational players are getting has led them to slow down, but it’s something to monitor throughout the course of the season, especially as Paul returns.

The Rockets are a more balanced team

In the 2016-17 season, the Rockets were second in offense and 18th in defense. Simply put, they won the majority of their games by outscoring (and out-shooting) their opponents. That hasn’t been the case this season.

So far, Houston is ninth in offense and 11th in defense. Due to the additions of players such as Tucker and Mbah a Moute, the Rockets are more than capable of getting stops on the defensive end to close out games — something you couldn’t say about Houston last season.

I already wrote previously about Tucker and his value to Houston, and it also must be said that Mbah a Moute has been incredibly valuable this season on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Mbah a Moute is providing his usual value, as he has posted a 1.8 defensive box plus-minus so far and is versatile enough to guard nearly every position on the floor.

On this play against the Charlotte Hornets, he starts off on Kemba Walker, then switches onto Frank Kaminsky before stripping him clean and getting the steal:

Offensively, Mbah a Moute has served as a secondary ball-handler on the bench units alongside Eric Gordon, and has shown the ability to finish at the rim at a surprisingly high rate.

On shots from within three feet of the basket, Mbah a Moute is shooting 76 percent! Against the Atlanta Hawks, Mbah a Moute used screens to cut to the basket and was able to finish a tough layup:

Another reason the Rockets are an improved defensive team is the progress Clint Capela has made. He is blocking more shots (1.4 per game) and grabbing more rebounds (10.9 per game), and has posted a defensive rating of 97 and defensive box plus-minus of 3.4 so far this season.

In fact, Capela leads the league in defensive rebound percentage at 36 percent.  His development has been a nice subplot of Houston’s season so far.

Next: 2017-18 Week 3 NBA Power Rankings

In the end, the Rockets are an impressive 7-3, despite having played nine games without their second-best player and shooting poorly on 3-pointers. They have been able to overcome their slow offense with a much-improved defense due to some key free agency signings. It will be very interesting to see how things change when Chris Paul returns in the coming weeks.

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