Orlando Magic: Will market influence Aaron Gordon’s extension?

Aaron Gordon is up for early extension on his rookie contract before the 2017-18 season begins. Will the Orlando Magic end up paying above or below market value?

In what was an important offseason for the Orlando Magic, they took care of business and had their most productive summer in years.

Adding the likes of Jonathon Simmons and Arron Afflalo to go with draft pick Jonathan Isaac is all well and good, but not everything has been taken care of.

The team went from having the ninth-highest payroll last season to the 20th-highest for this upcoming season. Additional money and contracts were shed to make way for the likely extensions of Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon.

Now, while Payton is a somewhat divisive figure who some feel may not even receives an early extension before opening night on Oct. 18, Gordon is another matter.

At 21 years old, he’s seen by many as the closest thing this franchise has to a star player, and he should be extended before the season begins.

If not, he’ll become a restricted free agent next summer, and if he has a true breakout season, any team could come in with an offer for him. Gordon likely knows this, while also being aware that the team doesn’t have much else going for it as of right now.

With these factors in mind then, will Gordon be given a team-friendly offer which will keep their salary cap more flexible for future years? Or will contracts that other players around the league signed this summer force the team’s hand and potentially overpay, or at least put a lot of money into Gordon’s next deal?

First, let’s take a look at what the player has going for him. Last season was the best of his young career, with Gordon averaging career highs in points (12.7), assists (1.9) and minutes per game (28.7).

Gordon did so while firstly being played out of position as a small forward, before reclaiming his more natural position at the 4 as the season wound on.

He developed some go-to moves offensively (including a pump fake and jump into a clear shot at the basket) and still is easily this team’s biggest draw with fans as a result of his All-Star Weekend exploits.

Although still more of a pure 4 at the moment, he is becoming more versatile as well, and could play across the frontcourt in any position in a small-ball lineup.

All of this is well and good, but Gordon can also look to outside factors, both on the Magic’s roster and beyond, as a case to be paid well and locked up early.

The top two earners on the team heading into next season are Bismack Biyombo and Evan Fournier at $17 million each. Given the choice, most fans would take Gordon over Biyombo, and in fact many would take Gordon over Fournier as well.

Biyombo is a one-dimensional rim protector, while Fournier is still yet to justify the hype many have placed around him, solid EuroBasket displays notwithstanding.

Should Gordon’s potential alone be worth the same as — or more than — that to the team? Isn’t giving him similar money what he should expect given his position and what he brings to the team?

It’s hard to argue against that, and in fact, the recent extension Nikola Mirotic signed with the Chicago Bulls only reinforces this notion. Based on the guaranteed money in his new two-year, $27 million deal, Mirotic will make just shy of $13 million this season, with a $14 million team option for the second year.

He is also able to veto any trade he is a part of in his first year too. Mirotic, five years Gordon’s senior, has career averages of 10.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists (Gordon’s career average in rebounding is 5.3 boards per game).

Orlando Magic

If he can make that kind of money on a rebuilding Bulls team, Gordon is well within his rights to demand north of $17 million.

If the team could move Biyombo’s contract to lighten the load on their bill in the coming years all the better, but this looks like being the core the team has locked into, and that’s all right.

The one factor working against Gordon being paid, though, is the Magic’s ability to be shrewd at the negotiating table in the past (barring the Biyombo deal, as puzzling now as ever).

The team traded away Victor Oladipo before his rookie contract was up, and it’s now the Indiana Pacers who are paying him the rest of his $84 million deal for the next four seasons.

Nikola Vucevic, a top-five offensive center in the league in some people’s eyes, was given a four-year, $53 million deal back in 2015.

It was a deal that looked great then, and with two years remaining on the contract until the center becomes an unrestricted free agent, looks much better now.

So outside of Biyombo, the team has a recent history of getting out of potentially large contracts or signing players to team-friendly ones.

This still shouldn’t worry Gordon too much however, and really it’s Payton who should be concerned about being the odd man out, as Gordon will get paid.

Quite how much is up for debate however. With guys like Nikola Mirotic making good money this summer, despite the salary cap shrinking, Gordon can feel confident about getting paid.

If he become the highest earner on the team, would people mind? Or does his rise to franchise cornerstone begin now, and include being paid as much before delivering in a notable way?

Next: 10 young NBA players in need of a breakout season in 2017-18

It’s certainly not the toughest decision the Orlando Magic will ever have to make, but it’s likely to be an important one when you consider how much it could impact the coming years too.