As exceptional of a career Paul Milisap has had, the Atlanta Hawks may have been better off trading him during the 2016-17 regular season.
Paul Millsap will be turning 32 during the middle of next season, and he isn’t getting any younger. He is certainly one of the most skilled players in his position, especially for his age.
The Atlanta Hawks may have to come to terms with finding a long-term replacement at his position.
As effective as he is spacing the floor or with his ability to defend just about anybody you throw in his direction, his stats this past year are telling for his future.
The four-time All-Star is coming off his best season, scoring a career-high 18.1 points per game. However, this was the result of tying his highest volume of field goal attempts, at 14.1 per game this season. Meanwhile his field goal percentage declined to a career low 44.2 percent. Not only was this year a career-low, but he has steadily declined in seven of his past eight seasons.
Still valuable on the market
While this can be problematic to the future of his career, his time in Atlanta could be all but finished. There are several teams that can use the versatile forward, as well as offer a better contract than the Atlanta Hawks.
Perhaps the thought of trading Millsap never crossed the front office’s mind being 32-14 just before the Feb. 23 trade deadline. Why push your team leader out of town while making another run into the playoffs?
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For starters, having a young and talented backcourt playing with an aging frontcourt is not a solid plan for the future. The Hawks’ frontcourt may have Dwight Howard and Paul Millsap, but how much longer can they be effective?
Paul Millsap is averaging 29.5 minutes per game over his career, but averaged 34 this past season. When you put his declining percentages and high volume of minutes in consideration, you have to ask how much gas can be left in the tank.
Aside from Taurean Prince having a standout rookie season, there just is not much youth rotating in the frontcourt, and even Prince only averaged 16.6 minutes per game this season.
However it appears that only now are they seeing the writing on the wall.
According to Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk said he may get better offers elsewhere when he joins unrestricted free agency this summer.
"“We are going to make Paul our best offer,” Schlenk said. “Will he have better offers? I don’t know. Do we want to keep Paul? Sure. I said last week, if you are building a team with all the things I’ve said, Paul checks all those boxes. He’s a hard-worker. He’s a good guy. He’s high-character. Skilled. He does all that stuff.“We’d like to have him. The reality is, he might get better offers than we can make him.”"
Why should have the Hawks traded Millsap? The likely answer is his trade value for a better position in the upcoming draft, or at the very least, the addition of a rotation player to fill his absence.
The alternatives are paying too much to retain the aging 32-year-old, or losing him in free agency for nothing.
Hanging on for too long
The lack of foresight for building their future is directly reflective of their 43-39 record. Finishing with 60 wins during the 2014-15 season and 48 wins during their 2015-16 campaign, the Hawks are regressing.
In fact, Millsap being an unrestricted free agent this summer would make him 37 at the end of a five-year max contract, which is definitely troubling. It is certain that they Hawks would get diminishing returns halfway through the contract.
Along with the possibility that the Hawks simply may not want to compete with other teams’ offers, the possibility of seeing him return remains bleak.
The Atlanta Hawks have made the playoffs every year since the 2007-08 season. As a franchise, they are certainly familiar with success during the regular season, but have trouble advancing to the conference finals.
They have reached that stage once in their 10 consecutive playoff appearances, during their 60-win campaign in 2014-15, which was Millsap’s second year with the team.
However, several teams around the league will put money over fist to gain his defensive ability to their lineup. He is still an excellent rebounder, and can be a facilitator on just about any roster. As well as setting a career-high pace for points and assists at 18.1 and 3.7 per game, respectively, it is possible he can hit these marks again. His defensive versatility should be mentioned as well.
However, everything that is possible does not translate into it being a reality or even likely.
Next: Free agency options for Millsap if Hawks move on
The future for the Atlanta Hawks and Paul Millsap is all but certain. Wherever Millsap finds himself for the 2017-18 season, he will be a considerable asset.