The case for Josh Jackson over Lonzo Ball on the Los Angeles Lakers

While Lonzo Ball may be the favorite as the hometown kid, the Los Angeles Lakers may be better off selecting Kansas’ Josh Jackson.

Should the Los Angeles Lakers select Lonzo Ball on June 22, it would not be a bad pick by any means. Ball would likely benefit mentally from getting to stay close to home. In addition, he fits very well with D’Angelo Russell. Russell could handle more of the scoring, ball handling, and pick-and-roll play, while Ball could stretch the floor, lead the break, cut off the ball and provide secondary playmaking and ball handling.

If Ball hits his upside, he’ll likely develop an ability to drive, finish and defend better, making him well worth the second overall pick in a loaded draft. He has a fairly high floor due to his passing and unselfishness, and a high ceiling, which is rare to find.

When looking at this pick, if the Lakers are going to pass on Ball it cannot be for someone who doesn’t have a higher possible ceiling. That would rule out media favorite De’Aaron Fox.

The only real candidates would be Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith Jr. and Josh Jackson. If Boston doesn’t take Fultz, the Lakers shouldn’t think twice before selecting him. Smith Jr. is a stud, but would be more of a disaster on defense with Russell than Ball. A lot of his skill also overlaps with Russell in terms of ball handling. That leaves Jackson.

With Fultz likely going No. 1, Jackson is really the only player the Lakers should consider over Ball. Jackson is a year older than most freshmen, but for a Lakers team looking to start winning more, that’s not a bad thing.

He offers, among other things, the chance to be a two-way star on the wing, the hardest archetype to find in the NBA. Jackson was one of only four players to average 16 points per game with a steal and block rate over three percent. None of the other three players are expected to get drafted in the first round, and one of them only played in one game.

Defense

What’s crazy about that block is Jackson doesn’t have an amazing wingspan. That block is purely athleticism and timing. In addition to the weak-side shot-blocking demonstrated above, Jackson has the potential to guard 1-4 in the NBA, attack the glass, dominate passing lanes, and generate turnovers into fast break points. That’s an awful lot and incredibly valuable.

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What he also brings is likely being the biggest competitor and gym rat of this draft class. ESPN‘s Fran Frascilla compared his demeanor to Kevin Garnett. For a Lakers team branded as soft by Kobe Bryant, the Lakers could use someone like Jackson.

Now, pay closer attention to Jackson’s tape and you’ll see inconsistency in terms of his one-on-one defending. You’ll also see issues with not knowing when to help. This can all be corrected once he’s in an NBA defensive scheme. He has all the tools, Jackson just needs help understanding that side of the game from an Xs and Os stance.

What’s most appealing about Jackson’s defensive potential for the Lakers is pairing him with Brandon Ingram. With Jackson and Ingram sharing time together at either the 2 and 3 or 3 and 4, the Lakers would be able to switch more defensively. That upside may be more important long-term than a Ball-Russell guard pairing full of shooting and passing. Between Ingram’s length and Jackson’s agility, the Lakers could build a strong defensive foundation.

Offense

We can’t address Jackson’s impressive defensive abilities without highlighting the main concern with his game. Like many prospects out of high school and college, it’s shooting. His form is an eye sore, despite how well he shot toward the end of the year.

Jackson shot just 38 percent on two-point jumpers, a shot he settled for too often, and just 56.6 percent from the line, per Hoop-Math. The shot needs work, but I’m optimistic. This optimism stems from hearing NBA scout Elan Vinokurov tell the Sixers-focused Rights to Ricky Sanchez Podcast he has more faith in Jackson’s jumper than De’Aaron Fox’s.

"“I know exactly what Josh Jackson needs to fix in order to become a three-point shooter in the NBA. I feel like I know what’s wrong with the shot. He sometimes releases before his peak, he sometimes releases after his peak. He’s got to shoot at his peak every time. Step two is when he follows through, he doesn’t completely extend the follow through. It’s fixable, it’s not easy, but it’s fixable. If he gets there, we’re talking about an All-Star.” – Elan Vinokurov"

Vinokurov later mentioned that Jackson’s dribbling to set up his jumper has All-Star potential as well. That means he’s comfortable pulling up and already has moves to open up space.

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Now, Laker fans are right to worry about shooting. They can look at Brandon Ingram’s struggles from three and the rest of their roster and wonder who exactly is going to be making shots. Drafting Ball should help their spacing much more so than Jackson.

If you believe in that jumper’s ability to improve, then Jackson may have a slightly higher ceiling than Ball. That’s because the rest of his offensive game is complete. While not as advanced as Ball, Jackson does a lot of the same things Ball does so well.

Jackson is superb cutting off the ball, an underrated, sublime passer from the wing, and good at attacking closeouts. He also eats on the offensive glass. His passing, though, is what makes him a tantalizing prospect. It’s what could help compensate for his lack of shooting, at least at first.

How many wings can make that pass, much less with their off hand? With vision like that, Jackson could even grow into a point forward one day. If Ingram’s feel keeps growing, as I think it will, the Lakers could have a rare combo of two-way point forwards. That means like Ball, Jackson can also push the ball in an up tempo style.

Barring the jump shot, Ball isn’t that much of an offensive upgrade over Jackson. Furthermore, Jackson has more promise as a scorer and can still dish. Spacing is a legitimate concern, but there’s no guarantee Ball’s funky release stays at a 40+ percent clip in the NBA.

Overall

There’s a great argument for both Jackson and Ball at No. 2. Frankly, there’s no reason the Lakers should consider anyone else, unless Fultz slips. Both players have All-Star potential, but I think Jackson has a higher ceiling. Adding a jump shot would make Jackson the next great two-way wing. We’re talking like Jimmy Butler-esque with a bit more passing ability. He also has a ton of fire in his game.

Ball certainly seems better for spacing and leadership, which the Lakers need, but the chance to add a potential two-way wing with an unrelenting drive might be too much to pass on. It’s easier to find guys to space the floor than wings who can do everything Jackson can.

There’s probably more risk with Jackson due to his jump shot, but he can still be an incredibly useful player without a great jumper. I just don’t know if the same could be said about Ball, at least not to the same degree. At this stage, shooting is probably more key for Ball to be effective in the NBA.

Next: 2017 NBA Mock Draft: Post-Lottery edition

The Lakers may opt for Ball on draft night and it would be a great decision. Don’t be surprised that they’re enticed by Jackson too.