What Is Patty Mills Worth To The San Antonio Spurs?

This summer, point guard Patty Mills will be an unrestricted free agent. What will the Aussie marksman command on the open market?

Patty Mills has worked his way through the ranks in the NBA and with the San Antonio Spurs. He started out as the 55th pick in 2009 by the Portland Trail Blazers, playing sparingly in two seasons. He then signed in San Antonio where he again saw little action in two years. It wasn’t until 2013-14 he got consistent playing time.

When Cory Joseph signed with the Toronto Raptors in 2015, Mills got the chance at a larger role with the Spurs. In each of the last two seasons he has averaged over 20 minutes a night and played in at least 80 games. In those two years Mills has averaged better than nine points and three assists per game and shot nearly 40 percent from three.

This summer, Mills will be an unrestricted free agent. He surely has built quite a resume for himself in these last two years. Patty’s agent should have a field day this summer with the increased cap and the market value on the type of player Mills is.

To determine his market value I looked at players who posted similar numbers during the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons. (I did not include 16-17, as those players have not hit free agency since posting those stats).

I compared Mills to players who had similar stat lines in the same number of minutes. Then I looked at per-36 averages because in some cases this can evaluate what a guy coming off the bench could do with starter’s minutes. Finally, I took a look at four guards who signed new contracts for this year.

Similar Stat Lines

In the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons, only four players posted at least nine points and three assists on 38 percent shooting from three in under 25 minutes per game: C.J. Watson and Aaron Brooks in 2014-15 and Manu Ginobili in 2015-16.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/19/2017.

Looking at these players and their recent contracts, there is not a whole lot of consistency. Watson was the only one to get a long-term deal after the above season. He signed a three-year, $15 million contract with the Orlando Magic in 2015. Ginobili saw an $11 million pay raise after these numbers last season. He’s of course with the Spurs on a one-year deal for $14 million. And I don’t know what Aaron Brooks or his agent were doing, because he only got a one-year, $2 million deal in 2015.

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While Ginobili’s extreme pay raise was partially due to the rise in salary cap, his percentage of the cap increased by about eight percent, meaning the raise was probably partly the new cap but also him proving he can still play. Had Ginobili not played so well, would he still have gotten $14 million to play?

So if you’re not sure about comparing to Manu, let’s look at Watson. C.J. got a pretty good contract from the Orlando Magic under the 2015 cap after his 2014-15 year. In fact, he was the fifth highest paid player on that team. With the salary cap at $70 million that year, C.J. accounted for about seven percent of the team’s cap. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, next year’s cap projection is at $101 million. If my math is correct, seven percent of this new cap would be just over $7 million a year.

I think we can all agree that Patty Mills is worth a little more than Watson, though. Not only is he a better player, but he’s also two years younger than C.J. was when he signed his deal. But this is at least a starting point for Mills and his agent to work with.

Per-36 Minutes

For teams looking for a starting point guard or big minute sixth man, Mills cracks decent per 36 averages. He puts up about 15 points and five assists per 36 minutes. Again taking a look at the last couple of years, I found four players with similar per 36 numbers.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/19/2017.

Jerryd Bayless is a great comparison for Patty Mills. Both players are combo guards that play on or off the ball. Bayless posted very similar stats to Mills last season and was rewarded in 2016 with a three-year, $27 million contract with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Joe Johnson posted just slightly better numbers last year despite playing more than 30 minutes a night. This summer he got a two-year, $22 million deal with the Utah Jazz. But while “Iso Joe” averaged just the nine points and two assists during the regular season, he’s proving why Utah paid him the big bucks. With his veteran savvy and playoff experience he is playing a huge role for the Jazz in their first round series, averaging 17 points a night including the game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 1.

Three-point shooting is only getting more important each year, and the Houston Rockets discovered you could build an offense out of role players who shoot it. Eric Gordon in his last two seasons with the Pelicans posted very similar stats to Mills on a per-36 minute basis. A team could look at that, see what Gordon gave the Rockets this year, and take a chance. Gordon got a four-year, $53 million contract, earning him on average just over $13 million a year.

These three players, along with the aforementioned Watson provide a potential framework for a Mills deal, with the $7 million we calculated from Watson being the basement and $13 million from Gordon being the ceiling.

2016 Signees

This chart will help us narrow down that range. Starting at the bottom, D.J. Augustin signed a -four-year, $29 million contract this summer after posting numbers slightly below Patty’s. That equates to that “just over $7 million” number I alluded to previously. This contract is a little on the low side compared to these others for two reasons:

1. It comes with a fourth year, while the others are all three
2. Augustin is more of a natural point guard, while the other players can play off the ball

The ability to play on/off the ball is huge with the floor spacing of today’s game. Since Patty has the ability to be a spot up option on the wing, he could command more money on the open market.

Jeremy Lin and Austin Rivers both got pretty good contracts this summer at three years, $36 million and three years, $35 million, respectively. But each player brings something to the table that Mills has not done to this point in his career.

Lin is still believed to have starting point guard potential — a characteristic some teams might not believe Mills possesses. But all it takes is one team to see otherwise for Patty to command that kind of money.

The argument that Rivers has going for him is one that is probably out of Patty’s reach. Rivers is considered an excellent two-way player off the bench at either guard spot. Mills however, does not necessarily have the size to guard 2s at a high level. He’s quick, but does not have the same length as Rivers.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/19/2017.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/19/2017.

Where Will He Land?

The amount of money Patty Mills commands all depends on what teams are interested in him. If a team thinks he can be their starting point guard, he could be looking at Lin money. But if someone thinks he can be a prolific shooter and Sixth Man of the Year candidate like Gordon, he may see a little more.

His starting point though should be what Bayless got this year. As a sweet shooting combo guard in today’s league, Mills should see about $10 million a year. Taking into account the increased cap, his target should be between $10-$12 million over three or four years.

Depending on what happens with Ginobili or Pau Gasol this summer, the San Antonio Spurs could offer Mills that kind of cash to stick around. But wherever he chooses to go, Patty Mills is getting paid.

Next: 2017 NBA Playoffs Roundup, Day 5

*All statistics, contract details and tables were found on and provided by Basketball-Reference.com*