In the first round of the 2017 NBA playoffs, the fourth-seeded Washington Wizards will face the fifth-seeded Atlanta Hawks. Here’s a breakdown and preview of the series.
The Washington Wizards are hoping to turn their first division title in 38 years into a deep playoff run, something the franchise hasn’t experienced since its march to the 1979 NBA Finals.
Standing in their way is a familiar foe, Southeast Division rival Atlanta Hawks.
The Wizards have won three consecutive contests against Atlanta, after falling to the Hawks by 16 in the season opener at Phillips Arena.
As the only team to qualify for the 2017 NBA Playoffs with a negative point differential, being outscored by 70 points by its opponents in the regular season, Atlanta is hoping its fourth-ranked defense will be enough to top Washington.
The Wizards are depending on their potent offense, which produced 109.2 points per game for the fifth-highest scoring average in the league,
Washington posted the highest total of crunch time performances, the team played 55 times where the score was within five points during the final five minutes. The Wizards claimed 32 victories in those contests, including two against the Hawks.
Both teams have managed to claim numerous victories in close contests, with Atlanta posting the seventh highest winning percentage in crunch time contests.
The post season routinely generates games that are decided in the waning minutes, meaning the Wizards and Hawks could have one of the most compelling opening round matchups.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard
John Wall (WAS) vs. Dennis Schroder (ATL)
Washington kept the ball in the hands of Wall for 8.9 minutes per game, matching John Wall and Russell Westbrook for the highest time of possession.
There were plenty of incentives for him to retain possession, as he was one of the most productive offensive players in the league, joining Westbrook and Harden as the only three to average over 10 assists per game.
Along with his 10.7 assists, second only to Harden this season, Wall also poured in 23.1 points per game.
Inconsistency has plagued Schroder throughout the season. While he managed to pour in 17.9 points per game, Schroder also turned the ball over 258 times, the sixth-most in the league. The assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.93 is just the 54th highest total in the league.
Advantage: Washington Wizards
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal (WAS) vs. Tim Hardaway Jr. (ATL)
The Hawks’ search for offensive production led the team to alter their starting lineup, opening a spot for Hardaway Jr., as he scored 17.8 points per game since the All-Star break.
The lofty scoring totals continued for Hardaway Jr. when he is among the starting five for Atlanta. In 30 starts this season, Hardaway posted 17.5 points per game, but the Hawks were outscored by 1.5 points per game. When Hardaway came off the bench, Atlanta scored 6.6 additional points.
Washington prompted the alteration to the Hawks starting lineup behind the play of Beal.
In his fifth season, Beal played a career-high 77 games, resulting in 23.1 points, 223 made shots from three-point range and an overall shooting percentage of 48.2 percent, the second-highest among all shooting guards.
Advantage: Washington Wizards
Small Forward
Otto Porter Jr. (WAS) vs. Taurean Prince (ATL)
The rookie Prince has started each of the past 10 games for the Hawks, resulting in averages of 11.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Atlanta is hoping Prince can provide a defensive impact, being able to switch off and help guard the exceptional backcourt duo in Washington.
Porter has become a potent offensive force this season, as he shot 51.6 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from beyond the arc. The third overall pick of the 2013 NBA Draft posted career-highs in scoring, rebounding, steals, blocks and three-point fields made.
Advantage: Washington Wizards
Power Forward
Markieff Morris (WAS) vs. Paul Millsap (ATL)
Millsap earned his fourth consecutive spot on the Eastern Conference All-Star team by continuing to score from all over the court. The 6-foot-8 forward converted 47.2 percent of his attempts between 10-16 feet from the rim, pulling defenders away from the rim.
Morris is able to match the strength and athleticism of Millsap and was the main reason he scored just 16 points on 41.5 percent shooting from the field. If Morris is able to replicate the success against Millsap in the playoffs, Washington could advance quickly to the second round of the playoffs.
Advantage: Atlanta Hawks
Center
Marcin Gortat (WAS) vs. Dwight Howard (ATL)
Both centers averaged double-doubles during the season, two of nine players at the position to accomplish the feat this season.
In the four meetings this season, Gortat pulled down 11 rebounds a game, while Howard pulled down 14.5 rebounds per game, one of nine opponents he averaged more than 14 rebounds a game against this season.
Howard went to the free throw line 30 times against Washington this season, his highest total against any opponent, but resulting in just 17 points.
Advantage: Atlanta Hawks
Bench/Sixth Man
Washington: Trey Burke, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jason Smith, Ian Mahinmi
Atlanta: Malcolm Delaney, Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala
Atlanta managed to secure the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference behind the clutch play of its reserves late in the season. During a game against the Cavaliers, the Hawks rested their entire starting lineup and still managed to secure a 14-point victory.
Two nights later, the bench totaled 44 points and carried the Hawks to an overtime victory, helping secure the first round matchup with Washington.
The bench for the Wizards produced an average of just 27 points per game this season, only the Timberwolves received a lower point total this season.
Advantage: Atlanta Hawks
Coaching
Scott Brooks (WAS) vs. Mike Budenholzer (ATL)
Brooks has emerged as a potential Coach of the Year candidate, as he overcame a 3-9 start to the season to post 49 victories, the most wins since the team lost to Seattle in the 1979 NBA Finals.
The league appointed Budenholzer as the Coach of the Year two seasons ago, and his work this season has been just as impressive, as the Hawks overcame the loss of Jeff Teague in free agency and Kyle Korver during a midseason trade to once again clinch a berth in the playoffs.
Advantage: Push
Key Matchup
Marcin Gorat (WAS) vs. Dwight Howard (ATL)
Five years ago both Gortat was backing up Howard in Orlando, now the two could provide the tipping point in the opening round playoff series between the Hawks and Wizards.
Howard is nearly automatic when he gets the ball near the rim. For the year, the eight-time All-Star has converted 73.3 percent of his attempts at the basket, a figure catapulted by his 199 dunks, the third most in the league.
Opponents shot 57.6 percent at the rim against Gortat this season, while Howard limited the opposition to 48.3 percent shooting.
If Gortat can limit the impact of Howard in the series, Washington will have a distinct advantage.
In 89 career post season appearances, Howard is averaging 19.1 points, 14.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, figures lofty enough to swing a series.
Washington Will Win If…
The superstar backcourt of Bradley Beal and John Wall deliver their 23.1 point per game averages and carries the team throughout the series.
Atlanta Will Win If…
The Hawks defense finds a way to suffocate Washington’s high-caliber offense. Atlanta surrendered just 104 points per game, the 10th fewest in the NBA this season.
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Prediction:
Washington Wizards defeat Atlanta Hawks 4-2