Jusuf Nurkic Saved The Portland Trail Blazers’ Season

The Portland Trail Blazers seem like a safe bet to make the playoffs, and their drastic midseason turnaround is all thanks to the arrival of Jusuf Nurkic.

Just a few weeks ago, the Portland Trail Blazers were one of the bigger disappointments in the Western Conference.

They were out of the playoff picture, Damian Lillard actually deserved to miss the All-Star Game for once, and coming off a surprising 44-win season and second round playoff appearance, a 2016 offseason spent splurging on young players was starting to feel like a mistake.

One trade later, Rip City has completely flipped the script.

Two games before the 2017 NBA Trade Deadline, Portland flipped Mason Plumlee — who will be a restricted free agent this summer — to the Denver Nuggets for Jusuf Nurkic and a 2017 first round draft pick (via Memphis).

In the race for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West, that deal has been the deciding factor for both teams.

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Before Nurkic came to Rip City, the Blazers were two games behind the Nuggets for the 8-seed with a 23-32 record and a -2.4 point differential. Since then, they’ve surged to a 13-6 record with a +3.6 point differential, sitting one game up on Denver in the standings with the 3-1 head-to-head tiebreaker in their back pocket.

Damian Lillard is still the face of the franchise, but Jusuf Nurkic saved the Portland Trail Blazers’ 2016-17 season.

In his 19 games with the team so far, the Bosnian Beast has upped his production from 8.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks and 0.6 steals in 17.9 minutes per game with the Nuggets to 15.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.2 steals in 29.1 minutes per game.

He’s shooting 51.4 percent from the floor, has eight double-doubles in a Blazers jersey and perhaps most importantly of all, supplied his new team with a vintage revenge game against his former squad, dropping a career-high 33 points, 16 rebounds and three blocks in Tuesday night’s crucial win over the Nuggets.

Not only did this win clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker against Denver and bump the Blazers into the No. 8 spot, but Nurkic showed up budding superstar Nikola Jokic — the player who justifiably stole his minutes at the center spot — in the process.

His attitude and conditioning were problems in Denver, but Rip City fans have embraced the Bosnian Beast and his surprising production with open arms. With stinging comments like these, can you blame them?

https://twitter.com/World_Wide_Wob/status/846971951352594432

That one game wasn’t Nurkic’s only explosive game since joining the Blazers, however. His 18-12-6-5-2 stat line in a win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Mar. 2 was the first sign this change of scenery could be something special..

His 28-point, 20-rebound, eight-assist, six-block, two-steal masterpiece in an overtime win over the Philadelphia 76ers a week later all but confirmed it. In doing so, he became the first player to register a 28-20-8-6 stat line since Charles Barkley in 1986.

It’s not just Nurkic’s individual production that has made a difference though. His presence inside the paint has breathed fresh life into Portland’s offense, and they’ve made surprisingly vast strides on the defensive end as well.

On the offensive end, Portland is shooting more efficient percentages from the floor and their 13th-ranked offense has jumped all the way to fifth in the league in the time since Nurkic first suited up for the Blazers:

• Before Nurkic:  45.4 FG%, 35.9 3P%, 106.8 offensive rating
• Since Nurkic:  48.4 FG%, 42.1 3P%, 110.4 offensive rating

On the defensive end, Portland ranked 26th in the association in defensive rating before Nurkic’s first game, surrendering a whopping 108.9 points per 100 possessions for a -2.1 Net Rating (22nd in the NBA).

Since the Bosnian Beast’s first game in a Blazers uniform, Portland’s 11th-ranked defense is only surrendering 105.7 points per 100 possessions for a +4.6 Net Rating (fourth). According to NBA.com, Portland’s defense is 9.5 points per 100 possessions stingier with Nurkic on the floor, and their rebounds, steals and blocks per game as a team are slightly up as well.

Obviously Nurkic can’t take credit for all of that progress, especially when it comes to the defensive turnaround and the improved three-point shooting.

Some of it is guys like Al-Farouq Aminu and Evan Turner getting fully healthy. Some of it can be attributed to the impressive strides Noah Vonleh has made. And some of it is just Damian Lillard turning the jets on, as his splits prior to and after the All-Star break clearly show:

• Lillard before All-Star break:  25.7 PPG, 43.3 FG%, 34.6 3P%, -1.2 plus/minus
• Lillard after All-Star break:  29.4 PPG, 48.5 FG%, 42.8 3P%, +7.1 plus/minus

But there’s no question Nurkic has been the catalyst behind this drastic midseason turnaround. His presence inside and as a screener has helped open things up on the perimeter, which might be a contributing factor to Lillard’s three-point percentage increasing by 8.2 percent and C.J. McCollum‘s rising from a stellar 41.1 percent to a blistering hot 49.3 percent from downtown.

Nurkic’s passing has kept the ball moving the way Plumlee did as well, only he’s been a better rebounder, shot-blocker and pick-and-roll threat too. His impact can be felt all over the court. The Blazers’ +8.9 Net Rating with him on the floor is a team-high, as is their -6.3 Net Rating with him on the bench, per NBA.com.

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Obviously 19 games is a small sample size, and considering the contracts that were doled out to McCollum, Turner, Meyers Leonard, Allen Crabbe and Mo Harkless last summer, there’s a chance this front office still overpaid for a young core that’s good but not great — especially with a Lillard-McCollum backcourt that struggles to stop anyone.

However, Nurkic’s arrival has somehow turned a gloomy letdown season into another likely playoff appearance. The storyline has completely changed, the optimism about this team’s future is back and the front office no longer has to worry about dishing out even more money for another average player like Plumlee.

The Blazers have won seven of their last eight games to climb back into a playoff spot, they’ve been a borderline top-10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency since Nurkic’s first Portland game and they somehow managed to pocket an extra first-rounder in the process, giving them three total in the 2017 NBA Draft.

How Portland uses or packages those picks remains to be seen, and we should note that there are still eight games left in the season. With only a one-game lead on the Nuggets, anything can still happen in that battle for the 8-seed.

But the Trail Blazers control their own destiny with six of those games coming at home, plus a much more favorable slate of opponents compared to Denver. Securing that playoff spot means a first round matchup with the mighty Golden State Warriors, and barring a Nurkic detonation down low or Lillard and McCollum having the hottest shooting series of their lives, Rip City won’t make it to the second round this year.

Next: 2016-17 NBA Power Rankings: Week 23

Still, even with a first round playoff exit looming, those rain clouds that Portland is all too familiar with have suddenly transformed back into sunny skies. And it’s all thanks to the arrival of a 22-year-old from Bosnia who’s lived up to his nickname with some absolutely beastly play for the Blazers.