Minnesota Timberwolves: Kris Dunn Is Better Than We Think
Many fans are disappointed in how Kris Dunn‘s rookie season has played out so far for the Minnesota Timberwolves. Has Dunn really played as bad as we all think? Not so fast.
Kris Dunn is a polarizing player for fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Timberwolves fans were ecstatic when Dunn was selected fifth overall in the 2016 NBA Draft. He was never expected to be on the board that long, as the Celtics were thought to be linked to Dunn with the third pick.
Then, after he was drafted, both the fans and the Timberwolves brass thought they finally had the point guard of their future. They had endured five disappointing seasons of Ricky Rubio and were ready to move on.
With 10 games remaining in the Timberwolves’ season, fans and the front office are less sure about Dunn’s future. He has been plagued by inconsistent play all season long. This culminated with four straight Did Not Play-Coach’s Decisions in early February.
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Since that time, Dunn has worked his way back into the rotation and is playing better as of late. He appears to be earning Tom Thibodeau’s trust as well; Dunn was on the floor to finish the game against the San Antonio Spurs on Mar. 21.
I have heard fans quickly jumping off the Dunn bandwagon, but I wasn’t so sure. Watching the games, my eyes told me that Dunn was a player who struggled on the offensive end but could hold his own on defense. He was a player without a very good outside shot and was unable to get to the basket on a consistent basis.
Looking back on the film a second time, I came away impressed with what I saw. While Dunn continues to struggle on offense, he has come a long way on the defensive side of the ball.
First, let’s look at his offensive game. Coming out of college Dunn was not known as a shooter. He has continued to carry that label into the NBA. As you can see by the shot chart below, Dunn struggles from the outside. He is only shooting 29 percent from downtown this year.
What’s been more surprising has been Dunn’s inability to finish around the basket. Coming into the season, the Timberwolves’ were hoping Dunn could use his good size and athletic ability to get to the rim and finish. That has not happened. Dunn is shooting 46.5 percent around the rim, far below the league average of 57.2 percent.
Recently, Dunn has begun to show more and more flashes of his potential. Check out this sweet floater he had against the Celtics in their Mar. 15 matchup:
On this play, Dunn uses his athleticism and size advantage over his defender to get into the middle of the lane. He then lofts the ball over the big man attempting to block his shot and gets it to fall for two points.
While plays like those may seem simple, they can be very effective for the Timberwolves. Minnesota lacks a third scorer right now and all the defensive attention is given to Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. If another player is able to step up in Zach LaVine‘s absence, it would provide a huge reprieve for Towns and Wiggins.
Even though Dunn has times where he has shown why he was drafted fifth overall, they occur infrequently. Plays like this one are far more common for Dunn:
Dunn uses a good jab step and a quick first step to beat his man off the dribble. He is then able to get deep into the lane until Towns’ man helps off to cut off the drive. Dunn could have had a semi-easy lob to Towns for a bucket but instead, tries to take it himself. He loses control of his body and ends up throwing up a wild shot that has no chance to go in.
The Timberwolves are worse offensively when Dunn is on the floor, with an offensive rating of 108.8 with Dunn off the floor, compared to 105.2 when he is on the floor. That isn’t surprising given Dunn’s inability to stretch the floor and his struggles to score inside.
The other end of the court is where Dunn is beginning to show a lot of improvement. He has come a long way from the beginning of the season, where he was often a step slow.
He still has a tendency to float on defense and can lose his man in traffic at times:
Dunn gets caught drifting on this play. He inexplicably floats to the elbow and then gives up a wide open three when the ball is swung to his man on the top of the key.
While Dunn occasionally struggles off the ball, he excels with his on-ball defense. He often uses his 6’9″ wingspan to get into passing lanes and deflect the ball. He will also use his reach to poke the ball loose from ball handlers. Dunn currently has a streak of 10 straight games where he has registered a steal. That includes at least two steals in four of his last five games.
Dunn’s reach is a huge weapon for him. He is very engaged in on-ball defense and is taking pride in guarding his man. Dunn now needs to carry that over to off-ball defense to take that next step on the defensive side of the ball.
With Dunn on the floor, the Timberwolves become a better defensive team. They have a defensive rating of 108.7 with Dunn on the bench but a rating of 106.5 with him on the floor. While that may not be a huge difference, it is a noticeable one since the Timberwolves’ have struggled recently to stop their opponent from scoring.
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While it can often be difficult to be patient with a No. 5 overall pick, it is imperative the Timberwolves don’t give up on Kris Dunn quite yet. It took him until his third year at Providence to finally put his game together. It appears that Dunn is a late bloomer and Minnesota should give him time to blossom into the basketball player he can be.