The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released their win total prop bets for the upcoming season. For the Indiana Pacers, it’s a tad bit low. Take the over.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released their over/under win total prop bets on Tuesday.
The Indiana Pacers received a win total over/under of 43.5.
Other than being a sign that the NBA is nearing a return to action, it’s important because it sets the expectations for teams going into next season.
The win totals are designed to draw equal bets on the over and under side, so they’re less of a projection and more of a baseline on where the betting public sees the Pacers doing this season.
Vegas O/U win totals for East:
— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) September 20, 2016
CLE: 56.5
BOS: 51.5
TOR: 49.5
DET: 45.5
IND: 43.5
ATL: 43.5
WASH: 42.5
MIL: 39.5
CHO: 39.5
CHI: 38.5
NY: 38.5
It’s especially more interesting for teams that have had a lot of change since the last time we saw them. The Indiana Pacers fit that bill, as they’ll have three new starters and a new head coach.
The simplest way to look at how they should fare with their win total is to look at how they did last year and look at the roster changes.
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The Pacers won 45 games last year, so for them to fall on the under, they’d have to have gotten worse or suffer some bad luck with injuries. Injuries are nearly impossible to predict, so we’ll stay completely away from that.
The Vegas number implies a bit of regression despite having what many would consider to be a positive offseason.
Through one way or another, the Pacers lost key contributors Ian Mahinmi, George Hill, Solomon Hill and Jordan Hill.
Larry Bird and the Pacers front office replaced them with Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Seraphin.
The Pacers put an emphasis on getting players who are better suited to play faster and to add more firepower to surround Paul George.
Biggest gap of national perception/expectations for one team? The Pacers. I have them as the 2nd-3rd seed. So many others have them out
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) September 20, 2016
George is the biggest reason why the over should be the pick for the Pacers.
PG-13 started to return to the elite level that he was reaching before his horrific injury that robbed him of much of the previous season. He peaked in the first round playoff series against the Toronto Raptors, averaging 27.3 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.
If George can play more like he did in the playoffs, the Pacers will have the second-best player in the Eastern Conference behind LeBron James.
Surrounding him with a group of players capable of getting their own shots should only help keep defenses honest against George.
8 Points, 9 Seconds
Defensively, the Pacers will take quite a hit. The Pacers finished third in defensive efficiency last season. Defense was the backbone of the Pacers’ success in the Frank Vogel era. Since Vogel became the head coach in 2010-11, the Pacers never finished outside of the top 12 in defensive efficiency, twice leading the entire league in the category.
Vogel is one of the best defensive-minds in the league and there is bound to be some regression.
The personnel that new head coach Nate McMillan has to work with is much worse off on the defensive end.
Jeff Teague ranked 52nd in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus while George Hill ranked 14th. Monta Ellis had a solid year defensively with Vogel after years of being a defensive liability. Thaddeus Young ranked just two spots ahead of Lavoy Allen in defensive plus-minus.
The biggest problem defensively may be the loss of Mahinmi, who ranked third in the league in defensive real plus-minus among centers. Replacing him will be second-year player Myles Turner, who was a middle of the road defender in his first season. Turner has all the tools to become a great rim protector but struggled with defensive rotations and awareness as a 19-year-old rookie. New addition Al Jefferson is a defensive liability that won’t be getting any better at age 31 with lingering injury issues.
The easiest way to make up for a poor group of defenders is with a great rim protector. The Pacers will need Turner to fill Mahinmi’s void defensively.
However, the anticipated defensive drop-off should be neutralized with more offense. Indiana’s offense often seemed crowded and devoid of players capable of creating their own shots under Vogel, leading to lengthy possessions that ended with forced shots as the shot clock winded down.
McMillan has players capable of creating offense at every position in the starting lineup and a few on the bench unit as well. Scoring points should no longer seem like such a daunting task for the Pacers.
The Eastern Conference is wide open after the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers and the Pacers are in the hunt for teams fighting for the second seed.
With George expected to take his game up a notch, the development of Turner, and a cast and coach designed to score points, the Pacers should see an improvement from last year.
Next: NBA Predictions: 2016-17 Win Total Projections For All 30 Teams
It’s hard to imagine that with George and a better supporting cast that the Pacers take a step back from last season. Take the over.