With Kevin Durant out of the picture, Russell Westbrook is poised to put up some ridiculous numbers next season. But could he actually average a triple-double?
Triple-doubles are always fun to see. Dominating the stat sheet to the point where you have double digits in three major categories never really gets old.
But if there’s one guy who’s doing his best to make triple-doubles feel less like a special occurrence and more like a regular thing, it’s Russell Westbrook.
Westbrook amassed 18 triple-doubles last season, five more than the next closest player, Draymond Green, and 12 more than the third-place finisher, Rajon Rondo.
That number ties him with Magic Johnson for the eighth most triple-doubles in a single season, and gives him the most for any player since the 1981-82 season.
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So yes, Westbrook has mastered the art of the triple-double, and he showed just how much he’s improved at stuffing the stat sheet. He tallied just 11 in the 2014-15 season despite having the team to himself for much of the year as Kevin Durant played in just 27 games due to a foot injury.
Last season, he not only upped his triple-double total by seven, he did so almost exclusively when Durant was in the lineup. Just two of Westbrook’s 18 triple-doubles came during the 10 games Durant missed in 2015-16.
Russ clearly took a big step forward last year, and with Durant now in Golden State, we should expect an even bigger statistical leap in 2016-17. But could he actually do something that has been done only once before and average a triple-double over an entire season?
Despite accumulating most of his triple-doubles with Durant on the floor last season, Westbrook is undoubtedly more productive with him out of the picture.
According to Today’s Fastbreak via NBAwowy, over the past two years Westbrook has averaged 35.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 10.6 assists per 40 minutes when Durant is off the floor.
When he’s on the floor, Westbrook’s numbers are as follows: 25.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 11.4 assists per 40 minutes.
Unsurprisingly, his assist totals went up when he had one of the best players in the NBA to dish the ball to, but everything else took a dip when Golden State’s new golden boy was on the court.
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So what does this say about Westbrook’s potential to average a triple-double next season? Basically, we definitely can’t rule it out.
The key to the aforementioned stats is that they are per 40 minutes, and Westbrook has never really been close to averaging 40 minutes per game in his career. Last season he played 34.4 mpg and his career high is 35.3 in 2011-12.
However, there’s a good chance he actually approaches the 40-minute mark next season with the departures of both Durant and the rarely-mentioned Serge Ibaka.
The league leaders in minutes per game last season were James Harden at 38.1, Kyle Lowry at 37.0 and Jimmy Butler at 36.9. All three of those guys were hard to take off the court at any time because their teams relied on them so much to carry the load.
That hasn’t been the case with Westbrook the past few seasons since he was playing alongside Durant, but now that the most notable names in his supporting cast are Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova, it’s going to be hard to take Russ off the floor for any significant amount of time.
Theoretically, as he approaches that 40-minute per game mark, he should approach that 35.3/9.0/10.6 stat line. The biggest thing he’ll have to work on is the rebounding.
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Assuming he averages 37-38 minutes per game next season, that would put him right around 8.3-8.6 rebounds per game based on his numbers per 40 minutes.
The good thing for Westbrook is there are some spare rebounds to go around. Durant was the team leader with 8.2 per game and Ibaka gobbled up his fair share as well with 6.8. With both of those players gone, guys are going to have to step up on the boards.
While it may not be wise to rely on your point guard to pull down more rebounds, it’s a safe bet that Westbrook will take it upon himself to do exactly that.
People are expecting Westbrook to light up the stat sheets next season, and rightfully so, but expecting a triple-double is a whole different animal.
But when you consider his numbers per 40 minutes with Durant off the floor, his likely uptick in minutes and the motivation he’ll have to lead the Thunder to success now that the team is his and his alone, the concept of him averaging a triple-double becomes a lot less absurd.
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This season has all the makings of being one to remember for Westbrook and Thunder fans alike. Historians should prepare for some records to be broken.