Why The Phoenix Suns Should Avoid A Paul Millsap Trade

According to a rumor, the possibility of a Phoenix Suns trade involving Paul Millsap is floating around. Here’s why the Suns shouldn’t do it.

Until now, the Phoenix Suns‘ offseason strategy of committing to a new youth movement was abundantly clear. Through the 2016 NBA Draft and general manager Ryan McDonough’s first free agency move of the summer, the Suns executed that plan to perfection.

In the draft, Phoenix nabbed the youngest pick in the group — Dragan Bender at No. 4 — and the fifth youngest player in the draft class –Marquese Chriss at No.4 — with high-upside selections, simultaneously addressing the team’s biggest position of need at power forward.

In the Suns’ first free agency move, they agreed to bring home fan favorite Jared Dudley on a bargain deal worth three years and $30 million, giving the team with an extra bit of depth at the 4-spot and providing the young locker room with a terrific veteran presence.

Not once in the last three years did Phoenix’s direction seem so clear. With 19-year-old Devin Booker looking like a future franchise star, two 18-year-old rookies joining a young core of T.J. Warren, Alex Len and Archie Goodwin, and even the arrival of undersized point guard Tyler Ulis, the Suns were finally on the path to a long-term, full-scale rebuild.

It’s concerning, then, to hear reports like this:

According to Chris Haynes of Cleveland.com, a trade involving Atlanta Hawks star forward Paul Millsap and Phoenix’s collection of picks has been “pondered.”

The phrasing of this report is open to interpretation. Are we talking about a strict two-team trade of Millsap for some of the Suns’ future assets? Could this be a three-team trade highlighted by Millsap and Phoenix’s assets? As of right now it’s unclear.

Related Story: Phoenix Suns: 2016 NBA Draft Grades

But according to The Vertical’s Adrian Wojnarowski, the Hawks are indeed shopping Millsap to make enough room to re-sign unrestricted free agent Al Horford, who they would play at the 4 alongside Dwight Howard.

If Phoenix’s interest is true, the biggest takeaway from all this — especially for a team whose starting power forward is now Jared Dudley — is that the Suns are once again having problems fully committing to the longer, more painful path necessary to get them back to prominence in the West.

Whether that’s because owner Robert Sarver still wants his team to be competitive after six years of missing the postseason or because McDonough is still trying to build from the middle up to make sure his job doesn’t fall into jeopardy is unclear. But make no mistake about it: the Suns should stay away from trades like this.

That’s not to say that Millsap is a bad player by any stretch; last summer, when Phoenix was going all in on LaMarcus Aldridge and trying to assemble a Western Conference contender, everyone would’ve been thrilled to land a piece like Millsap.

Last season for the Hawks, the three-time All-Star averaged 17.1 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game on 47 percent shooting, while also doubling as one of the league’s most underrated yet elite defenders.

His 31.9 percent shooting from three-point range doesn’t quite fit the stretch-4 mold Phoenix is looking to pair with its starting backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, but if the Suns were to acquire Millsap, he would automatically become their best player.

That’s just the problem, though: Why would the Suns make such a move to swivel them from building around youth to another desperate gambit for the sixth, seventh or eighth seed in the West?

While I can understand the franchise-record playoff drought of six years is embarrassing, the success of the 2013-14 Suns has since doomed the organization to heightened expectations and a life of fruitlessly trying to build from the middle up.

Rarely in the NBA does that lead to championship success. Over the last 30 years, only four or five championship teams were led by a player that was not originally drafted by that team.

With marquee players like LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge and now Kevin Durant passing the Suns by as a free agency destination, it’s become clear that Phoenix’s path back to relevance must come through the draft, where McDonough has been the most successful as a GM.

If the Suns were to trade Millsap, they’d be getting a bonafide All-Star who can affect the game on both ends of the floor. Phoenix would once again be favored to lock up one of those bottom-rung playoff spots in the West, with a hopefully healthy core of Bledsoe-Knight-P.J. Tucker-Millsap-Tyson Chandler doing the heavy lifting.

But that’s the glaring problem: None of the names in that projected starting five include the players that represent the very foundation of the franchise now.

More from Phoenix Suns

• 3 NBA superstars with legacies on the line heading into 2023–24
• Ranking the 4 riskiest boom-or-bust NBA teams in 2023–24
• 5 NBA players facing do-or-die 2023–2024 seasons
• Report: Phoenix is considering signing two former lottery picks
• Phoenix’s questionable Deandre Ayton strategy is worth the risk

Knight and Bledsoe are both coming off season-ending injuries and have an alarming history of being injury-prone. Chandler is 33 years old and until the home stretch of the 2015-16 season, was showing signs of the predictable regression that Father Time imposes upon everyone.

Tucker is on the last year of a deal that wasn’t even guaranteed until a few days ago. And Millsap, great as he may be, is 30 years old and only has one year left on his deal, with a $21.4 million player option for 2017-18.

After watching Timofey Mozgov (four years, $68 million), Chandler Parsons (four years, $98.5 million) and Joakim Noah (four years, $72 million) get absolutely paid after lackluster or injury-riddled seasons, do you really think he’d opt in with a team that has no hope of contending in the West — and for the lowly price of $21.4 million, no less?

This means that unless McDonough was able to really swing for the fences and sacrifice more youth and future draft picks to hastily assemble a contender, Millsap would probably amount to a one-year rental who cost the Suns future picks that could be valuable.

What would the Hawks be expecting? Well, if this report is to be believed, it’d involve Phoenix’s treasure trove of picks and, unless a third team were involved, enough salary to come close to matching Millsap’s $20.4 million salary for 2016-17.

As far as picks are concerned, the Suns own all of their future first-rounders, plus they’re owed Miami’s 2018 first-rounder (protected 1-7) and their 2021 first-rounder (unprotected).

Live Feed

Valley of the Suns

Those picks are way down the line, but they could be potentially valuable if Dwyane Wade leaves this summer and the 71-year-old Pat Riley — who has been so successfully aggressive in building contenders — finally decides to call it a career as an executive.

As far as matching salaries goes, Brandon Knight and Alex Len would get the job done, but would the Hawks want either one of those players? Len serving as a backup for Howard would be fine, but Knight really didn’t do his trade value any favors last year.

Tyson Chandler and P.J. Tucker also works, but again, would the Hawks want another aging big man of 30+ years? And after drafting two small forwards, what purpose would Tucker and his one-year deal serve?

As of right now, the Suns are one Brandon Knight trade or Tyson Chandler salary dump away from really giving the youngsters as many minutes as they can handle. Those deals might not be a viable option until the trade deadline approaches, teams become desperate and they start looking for guys like a P.J. Tucker or a Tyson Chandler, but they should be imminent nonetheless.

It’s not that adding Millsap would be a bad thing; it’s that the Suns would be doing it for the wrong reasons, once again tipping their hand that long-term, sustainable success is not as important as simply getting back to the playoffs.

More from Hoops Habit

• The 5 most dominant NBA players who never won a championship
• 7 Players the Miami Heat might replace Herro with by the trade deadline
• Meet Cooper Flagg: The best American prospect since LeBron James
• Are the Miami Heat laying the groundwork for their next super team?
• Sophomore Jump: 5 second-year NBA players bound to breakout

At the moment, the Suns are teetering on the edge of fully committing to their promising young core and flipping the script back to playoff aspirations. Millsap could be a great mentor for the youngsters, who would finally get their first playoff experience, and all of that is valuable.

But after signing Jared Dudley for that very reason of mentoring the youth, bringing in a far more talented 4 like Millsap would signify this organization is too impatient to go all-in on the necessary rebuild. It’d take minutes away from the young core and show that the Suns haven’t changed in their desire to just make the playoffs, no matter the cost.

Giving up potentially valuable picks for a 30-year-old power forward who’d likely amount to a one-year rental is just bad business, no matter how talented that player is. This could just be one of many free agency reports that never comes to fruition, but if it does, all of the Suns’ efforts to finally carve out a new path will be overshadowed.

More hoops habit: Phoenix Suns: 5 Best Free Agency Options

Keep the picks that will only enhance McDonough’s greatest strength as a GM, let the youth develop toward their promising futures and allow Jared Dudley to do what you signed him for. Sacrificing all of that for one year of Paul Millsap, great as he may be, just isn’t worth it.