NBA Playoffs 2016: Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers Preview
By Justin Rowan
The Toronto Raptors are looking to overcome their first round demons, but the Indiana Pacers are standing in the way in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs.
The new-look Indiana Pacers have proved the doubters wrong and reached the playoffs even after undergoing a dramatic rebuild. The Toronto Raptors are looking to get to where the Pacers were, making deep runs in the NBA playoffs and at the cusp of truly contending.
Let’s look at the matchups to see where the advantages are within this series.
Likely Starting Lineups:
Point Guard
Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. George Hill (IND)
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Kyle Lowry has had the best season of his career. Averaging 21.2 points and 6.4 assists per game, he has been the catalyst for the Raptors throughout the season. His ability to attack the basket, punish teams from behind the arc and at the free throw line make him one of the more versatile guards in the league.
He is also fourth among point guards in defensive real plus/minus, making him a tough assignment for George Hill. While Hill is a very talented point guard, he’s been somewhat neutered this season playing alongside Monta Ellis given the fact that they both need the ball in their hands to be successful.
Advantage: Toronto Raptors
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. Monta Ellis (IND)
The other half of Toronto’s two-headed snake is DeMar DeRozan. The All-Star is also having the best season of his career, averaging 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. Whether or not Monta Ellis can make him work on the defensive end of the floor would probably be the best shot the team has at slowing him down, given the fact they don’t have a lot of guards that can slow him down with their defense.
Advantage: Toronto Raptors
Small Forward
DeMarre Carroll (TOR) vs. Paul George (IND)
The Raptors aren’t the only team with a star player in this series. Paul George has the ability to swing a series with both his offense and defense. George’s ability to score in the face of great defense can be demoralizing for any team, but he has struggled against Toronto this season, averaging only 16.3 points and 7.0 rebounds a game.
While Carroll usually would be a player capable of making things tough for George, he is coming off of a serious injury and has yet to play significant minutes. George will need to elevate to the level he’s capable of reaching to give his team a chance in this series. His playoff experience should be a huge asset in the series given the struggles Toronto has had in the past.
Advantage: Indiana Pacers
Power Forward
Luis Scola (TOR) vs. Lavoy Allen (IND)
This is an interesting matchup as it’s one that likely won’t be featured for the bulk of the series. Patrick Patterson plays a lot of minutes at the power forward position and Carroll could see some time as a small-ball forward. For Indiana, they have a desire to play small-ball as well and either George or one of their other wings will close games at power forward.
But to start the game, the two forwards couldn’t be more different. Scola has the ability to score in flurry, but if the ball isn’t going to him he isn’t going to help you. Scola’s net rating is a crippling -10.8 due to his defensive deficiencies. Allen is a low usage defensive player who is a far steadier presence than Scola. While Scola could be an X-factor with his offense, I’ll take the risky adverse position with Allen.
Advantage: Indiana Pacers
Center
Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) vs. Ian Mahinmi (IND)
Valanciunas is a huge difference maker in this series, as his offensive skill set can take pressure off of Lowry and DeRozan. While the team doesn’t consistently go to him, when they do he usually rewards them with a high percentage shot.
Mahinmi is more of a placeholder for the Pacers. He brings solid defense and rebounding, he knows his role and is a consistent rebounder. While Myles Turner might end up getting more time if he’s producing, Mahinmi brings Indy a strong, reliable veteran presence. It’s unlikely Indy’s centers outproduce Valanciunas, but if they can limit him that could be a difference maker in this series.
Advantage: Toronto Raptors
Sixth Man/Bench
Patrick Patterson (TOR) vs. Myles Turner (IND)
While Patterson hasn’t shot the ball with the same consistency as he has in the past, he has been a difference maker for Toronto this season. His defense, intensity and ability to space the floor has contributed to him being on of the biggest impact players in the league in terms of plus/minus and has a +10.3 net rating.
Turner is a tremendously talented rookie, a modern center that can space the floor and make an impact on the defensive side of the floor. He can get incredibly hot and punish the weaker defensive bigs of the Raptors, but like all rookies he doesn’t yet possess the level of consistency required to count on him for a playoff series. Overall Toronto has the much deeper bench, with Cory Joseph, Patterson, Terrence Ross, Bismack Biyombo and blossoming rookie Norman Powell.
Advantage: Toronto Raptors
Coaching
Dwane Casey (TOR) vs. Frank Vogel (IND)
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In a league where coaches rarely have any job security, Casey and Vogel have emerged as two of the longest tenured coaches in the association. Vogel has more playoff experience than Casey, advancing deep in the Eastern Conference playoffs in the past, while Toronto has come up short in the past while being outcoached. The Raptors have more tools for Casey to use and new assistant coaches, but the time has come for him to prove himself on the big stage.
Advantage: Indiana Pacers
Key Matchup
DeMarre Carroll (TOR) vs. Paul George (IND)
Paul George against DeMarre Carroll will likely be the most meaningful matchup in this series. While team play helps get you through the regular season, the playoffs are about stars and what they can do to put the team on their back. If George is playing at his highest level, he could make this series incredibly difficult for the more talented Raptors squad.
Toronto Wins If…
They keep their composure and stick with their defensive identity. They are the better, deeper team with top 10 rankings in offensive and defensive efficiency. This is their series to lose.
Indiana Wins If…
Toronto gets baited into a run-and-gun game and get away from their defensive identity with Paul George going supernova.
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Prediction:
Toronto Raptors defeat Indiana Pacers 4-2.
I’m tempted to say the series will be over in five games, but I think it’ll take an extra game to fully exorcise their playoff demons.