Zach LaVine: Tracking 2nd-Year Guard's Progression

Zach LaVine has unquestionably made significant strides from Year 1 to Year 2, but the jury is still out on the two-time Slam Dunk Champion.

There’s just something about elite jumping jacks with unlimited range — much like a tall blonde with long legs — that inherently attracts my undivided attention.

As fate would have it, based on those two arbitrary traits alone, I’ve irrationally rooted for Zach LaVine ever since he was drafted 13th overall by the late Flip Saunders during the 2014 NBA Draft.

But, by all accounts, Zach had somewhat of a disastrous rookie season.

Erroneously pigeon-holed as “the next Russell Westbrook,” the wide-eyed teenager was not only force-fed point guard minutes, he was thrown directly into the fire when starting point guard Ricky Rubio missed the majority of last season after suffering a mysteriously slow-to-heal ankle injury.

Not surprisingly, LaVine was — by most advanced metrics — the worst rotational player in the league last year.

As usual, though, context is key.

I may be subjectively making excuses for the UCLA product, but Zach was a classic late-bloomer in high school. In fact, he was ranked outside of the top 50 by most recruiting services during his senior year.

To compound things, for most of his freshmen campaign at Westwood and rookie season with the Minnesota Timberwolves, LaVine looked and played like a kid who had not fully grown into his new body. Despite his otherworldly speed and hops, he still lacks the body control of someone like his teammate, Andrew Wiggins.

During his said, and lone, freshmen year at UCLA, LaVine started all but one game. And after a blistering start to his brief collegiate career, his play tapered off drastically once Pac-12 Conference play commenced.

To make matters worse, Zach played almost exclusively off the ball, while the team’s star, Kyle Anderson, and the coach’s son, Bryce Alford, assumed most of the team’s ball-handling responsibilities.

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Thus, when the Bothell, Wash., native was prematurely anointed the starting floor general of the Wolves early on during the 2014-15 season, well, he struggled … miserably.

It wasn’t fun watching Zach run an NBA offense — I can attest to that on a first-hand basis having tortured myself to watching every minute of both LaVine and Wiggins thus far into their respective careers.

Specifically, he lacked — or should I say, still lacks — a natural feel for the game. Try watching Devin Booker, who is put in an identical position this year, and most basketball enthusiasts can immediately see the differences in their respective approaches and mental acuity.

As a 19-year-old who was asked to run a modern-day, high pick-and-roll offense, LaVine was a turnover machine; often killing his dribble inopportunistically, predetermining his pocket passes and telegraphing his post entries.

By contrast, Booker — a 6’6″ combo guard with a similar skill-set — just knows how to negotiate a screen-and-roll; shortening his dribble in tight quarters, surveying the D as he keeps the retrieving man on his hip, patiently allowing his passing lanes to unfurl, etc.

Simply put, Zach wasn’t — and still isn’t — a point guard. Even as he capped off his rookie campaign in impressive fashion, finally finding ways to utilize his incredible athleticism in a functional manner, he was still a mess when tasked with the role as the team’s lone initiator. Alternatively, LaVine thrived in a combo guard capacity.

When playing alongside D-League fodder Lorenzo Brown, LaVine averaged 21.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.6 assists per game during the month of April last year.

As the 2015-16 NBA season began, however, interim coach Sam Mitchell — after declaring Zach as the team’s starting 2-guard — would rescind his decision after a couple of disappointing preseason performances and placed the two-time Slam Dunk Champion back into a point guard-exclusive role (to the ire of most Timberwolves fans).

And, for most the season, LaVine failed to show much progress. He still struggled with the same read-and-react aspects of running the team and was still overthinking the game.

But, in an unexpected turn of events (/green font), Zach’s fortunes and play would make a complete 180 when Mitchell inserted him into the starting lineup as the Wolves’ starting shooting guard. In particular, his scoring and scoring efficiency would skyrocket as his usage and turnover rates simultaneously diminished.

From mid-February to the end of March, LaVine would play the best basketball of his young career, and seems to have really found his niche in the league.

Zach averages 17.4 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 35.1 minutes per game as a starter — while scoring on a true shooting percentage of .585 no less.

More encouragingly, he’s converting on a blistering 44.4 percent of his 3s in said capacity, including 44.1 percent when launching from beyond the arc directly off the catch and 41.7 percent off of the bounce, per NBA.com.

Make no mistake, all of that is extremely promising — it also shows the tremendous strides the young neophyte has made from Year 1 to Year 2. But — maybe I’m being a skeptic; maybe I’m overthinking things — in my mind, the jury is still out on Zach LaVine.

If you watch Timberwolves basketball religiously (and God bless you if you do; trust me, I can attest to that), you’d noticed the gradual change in the opinion of team’s color analyst, Jim Petersen, on young Zach.

While Petersen is one of the most knowledgeable and hardest-working men in the business, he prematurely jumped the gun when he anointed Zach as the best shooting guard younger than 25, as he did during the team’s broadcast of their thrilling double-OT win over the Washington Wizards just a couple of weeks ago.

Now, before Wolves nation get all up in my face, hear me out: I love nothing more than to watch LaVine rub tightly off of a dribble-handoff, square his body in one swift motion, before launching himself 40 inches off of the ground as he drills a 28-foot bomb with effortless ease over the outstretched arms of a helpless, hard-closing big (yes, I need help).

However, I think it is fair to say, ever since Zach has made the permanent change to the 2, he has become awfully dependent on the 3-ball.

Sure, he looks like Jesus on the hardwood when he’s sinking 53.6 percent of his 3s, as he did for a 10-game stretch during the month of March. But, when he regressed back to the mean, as he did last week, things can get ugly. And by ugly, I mean going seven consecutive quarters without scoring a single point.

Zach LaVine, who is still scoreless, just tried a reverse layup against Rudy Gobert. It didn’t go great.
— Zach Harper (@talkhoops) April 2, 2016

See, unlike his brethren on the wing in Wiggins, LaVine severely lacks the wherewithal to move efficiently without the ball. Maybe it’s the switching back and forth between point and off guard, or maybe I’m just making excuses for him again, but the bottom line is, too often does Zach just drift aimlessly from the top of the key to the corner as he aims to “spot up.”

While conventional wisdom tells us a 3-point shooter of his athletic ilk should optimize a team’s spacing, his sedentary nature often acts as a detriment to the Wolves’ halfcourt chemistry — especially as Minnesota beings to run more and more of their offense through their franchise cornerstone, Karl-Anthony Towns, in the pinch post.

Cut Zach /

There is a reason why Andrew can still manage to muster up 20 points on nights when he isn’t shooting well; he’s perpetually moving and cutting, finding different ways to slash to hoop to draw fouls and earn easy buckets.

cTO88QB /

Aside from the occasional leak out, and those are coming fewer and farther in between as teams hone in on Zach, rarely does LaVine score in the paint. The 360 tomahawks with no defenders in sight are breathtaking no doubt (proof here), but he has to find other ways of contributing when his outside J isn’t falling.

Speaking of his leak outs, the coaching staff has obviously put an increased emphasis on such a strategy, as LaVine has been jetting down the court after every shot attempt recently. But there is no excuse for someone with a 46-inch vertical to not grab at least one rebound in three consecutive games.

The dearth of offensive boards grabbed by Zach harkens back to his lack of off-ball movement.

And for all the flak Andrew received earlier on during the year for not contributing enough in the other parts of the game outside of his scoring, Wiggins is dishing out nearly as many assists and grabbing more than a rebound more than Zach per game post-All-Star break.

Additionally, despite being the more graceful athlete and possessing the shiftier handle, Wiggy has quietly and gradually evolved into the more headier pick-and-roll negotiator of the two.

Zach still rushes his reads too often and forces way too many pocket passes. In contrast, Andrew is growing increasingly more patient in terms of probing the defense before delivering either a pin-point bounce pass to a flaring big, or sifting a cross-court bullet to a weakside shooter.

Thus, you can rationally see why coach Mitchell immediately threw LaVine back at the point when his shot deserted him last week. At least when playing the point, Zach can dominate the ball and utilize his lightning quick first-step in a change-of-pace setting to get all the way to the rack.

It also encourages him to stay back defensively, grab a defensive board and lead the break on his own — the type of things Zach did increasingly well late last season.

Now, I’m not writing all this to take a dump on LaVine’s progression. As I’ve mentioned before, for reasons known only the man above, I am a huge Zach LaVine fan — I’m just a little bit more level-headed and moot on his outlook.

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He has improved tremendously on his ball skills; his shooting percentages and turnover rate can attest to that. But, his feel for the game still leaves a lot to be desired; in particular, his decision making in the pick-and-roll game.

To borrow and remix a phrase from draft connoisseur Fran Fraschilla, Zach is still five pounds away from being five pounds away. He is still far too slight to effectively defend in an NBA environment — often getting housed in 1-on-1 isolations and completely dying on screens (although he has shown much greater effort of fighting over picks this year).

It disturbs me to witness a man with his athletic profile — world-class, track star speed equipped with a bionic left leg — get his shot sent back as much he does.

Yes, I get it — the Wolves broadcast has repeatedly highlighted that fact he shoots nearly 60 percent at the rim — but he still lacks the body control and strength to finish through the contact the way an elite athlete of his caliber should.

And how many more times is he going pass up an open 3, and either travel/step out of bounds trying to attack a close-out, or take one dribble before launching an ill-advised long 2?

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Point is, the mental game is what’s going to determine whether he is a perennial All-Star, and dare I say, superstar, or just another run-of-the-mill gunner off of some random team’s bench.

Here’s the good news: if his progression thus far has shown us anything, it is that Zach LaVine is willing to put in the work to be great.

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Dissecting Wolves Pt. 1: Tracking The 2nd-Year Progression Of Zach LaVine

By Aaron Mah | Apr 6, 2016

Zach LaVine has unquestionably made significant strides from Year 1 to Year 2, but the jury is still out on the two-time Slam Dunk Champion.

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