The Unexpected Collapse Of The Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards were supposed to be a top seed in the Eastern Conference. Now it’s unlikely they make the playoffs. What went wrong?

The Washington Wizards were on top of the world after sweeping the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2015 NBA postseason.

Toronto had home-court advantage, and Washington absolutely walloped them. The Wizards won Game 4 by 31 points, and went on to lose in six games to the 60-win Atlanta Hawks.

Losing in the second round isn’t anybody’s idea of a dream scenario, but it was a solid first step for Washington. The team appeared ready to take the next step, and with a big three of John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter emerging in the postseason the Wizards should be a top seed right now.

Instead they sit at 36-39, 3½ games behind the eighth-place Indiana Pacers. Washington’s playoff hopes are dead, and the team will go into their most important summer ever limping, with their tail between their legs.

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Kevin Durant was always a long shot, especially after the Washington crowd booed the D.C. native. The chances of him turning down a better team and better financial situation in Oklahoma City to come home to this mess seem around zero.

So the question remains–what happened?

Beal had yet another unhealthy season, playing in just 50 games thus far and starting only 30 of them. Beal’s long-term health continues to be a concern for the Wizards, who have gotten 65 games out of him just one time in his four-year career.

The silver lining there is that when he was healthy, Beal was good. He didn’t shoot quite as well from distance as last season, but his scoring output and field goal percentage were both better.

More accurately, Beal’s offense was good. His defense was worse than ever before, according to all three defensive advanced states (defensive rating, box plus/minus and defensive win shares). Injuries certainly play a role in that, although it’s not like Brad Beal has never dealt with injuries before in his career.

Beal is meant to be the Wizards’ second star for now, and the perfect third banana if Washington can actually convince some star to join their core. He’ll need to shore up that defense to become the Klay Thompson to Washington’s Golden State Warriors.

Randy Wittman tried to reinvent his entire coaching style to fit the modern NBA, and deserves some credit for that. He also should get somewhat of a break for the plentiful injuries the Wizards dealt with early on.

Washington never looked incredible though, even when (mostly) healthy. Wittman’s fast-paced offense left the Wizards defense at its worst since 2012, his first partial season in D.C. The Wizards won games with defense last season, but their cultural revolution in 2015-16 failed miserably.

Washington hadn’t recorded a higher pace than their 98.3 mark set this season since the 1989-90 year, when they were still the Bullets. Unfortunately the Wizards roster just wasn’t ready to be that sort of team.

Asking career 27 percent three-point shooter Kris Humphries to fill in as a stretch 4 is one hell of a stretch. Humphries is a good player and actually managed to come through, hitting 34 percent of his threes. His defense stunk about as badly as Beal’s did though.

Depth might be the biggest reason the Wizards suffered. Figuring that Wall, Beal, Porter, Humphries/Jared Dudley and Gortat were the starters, Washington had just Gary Neal, Ramon Sessions, Nene, the other half of their two-headed stretch four monster, an eternally-injured Alan Anderson and a bunch of spare parts as a backup unit.

Adding Marcus Thornton and Markieff Morris helped somewhat, although Humpries was lost in that deal. That bench wasn’t enough to keep up with Cleveland, Toronto or Boston, so here Washington is. Out of the playoffs, and readying themselves to save the Wall-lead Wizards once again.

Ben Mehic has written that the Wizards would be geniuses to snag a disgruntled DeMarcus Cousins, and I agree. Durant is fool’s gold for most teams outside of Oakland and Oklahoma, but Boogie might seriously be obtainable after yet another colossal failure of a season in Sacramento.

Washington needs a plan C though, if plans A and B revolve around lucking out and ending up with Durant or Cousins. Those kind of legitimate top-ten players aren’t just up for grabs every season–the other teams in the Association need to find ways to get good without signing or trading for one of them.

The draft is the easiest way, and Washington has drafted well recently. Unfortunately their pick will almost certainly end up in Phoenix, unless the Wizards end up with a top nine pick (highly unlikely, but the lottery balls have done stranger things).

Was Markieff Morris worth that much? Maybe not, but it’s unlikely Washington could’ve drafted somebody better at 12 overall (where they currently sit in the lottery standings). Plus Morris is on a very team-friendly deal, and will remain a Wizard through the 2018-19 season (depending on his temperament).

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And of course, as Washington loves to point out, the Wizards will have the cap space to sign anybody this summer. With Nene’s bloated deal finally coming off the books, Washington has just $45.4 in owed money next season.

That’s calculated before a new deal for Beal is factored in, but even if his agents convince Washington to hand over a $146 million max deal the Wizards will still have some room left over.

This free agent class doesn’t hold any perfect fits for Washington besides Durant, but dealing Marcin Gortat and replacing him with Al Horford or Hassan Whiteside could move the needle slightly for the Wizards.

John Wall is still great, and the young core in Washington is far from hopeless. They’ll need a new coach, as the Randy Wittman small-ball excitement lasted for about five minutes in D.C., but the groundwork is here for a better season in 2016-17.

Putting all of their eggs in the Durant basket might ruin the Washington Wizards this summer though, especially if they make a salary-clearing move for a free agent that never shows up.

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The summer of ’16 will be filled with questions in Washington, and the answers the franchise comes up with will determine the future successes–or failures–of the Wall era.