Portland Trail Blazers: Refusing to Lay Down, Built for Stability

The Portland Trail Blazers are outperforming expectations and are a team built to have long term success in the Western Conference.

Refusing to “tank” the 2015-16 season en route to a high first-round draft pick, Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts has instilled a positive culture that’s garnering results. Even in a top-heavy Western Conference, they’re winning meaningful basketball games and becoming a threat to any first-round opponent in the 2016 playoffs. With a roster laden with youth, this season wasn’t supposed to amount to anything substantial.

The Portland Trail Blazers were pummeled in the 2015 offseason, shot after shot to the gut from the free agency period. Few teams recover effectively from losing four of their five top scorers from a previous playoff team. LaMarcus Aldridge is thriving for the West’s No. 2 seed San Antonio (16.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG), Wes Matthews has expedited his timetable in returning from a ruptured Achilles last season, albeit shooting a career-low 38.7 percent from the floor in Dallas, and Robin Lopez has become a rock at center for the New York Knicks.

The Trail Blazers received zero compensation in spite of letting three members of their starting lineup walk in free agency. Aldridge, arguably the franchise’s cornerstone over the last decade, felt the title window in San Antonio was more expansive than in Portland and returned to his home state of Texas. Power forward has been the hardest position this season for Portland to address since Aldridge’s spurning of the team last July.

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Instead of finding a player that could replicate Aldridge’s 23.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG, general manager Neil Olshey lured Charlotte into boosting their efforts for contending by adding Nicolas Batum. Olshey dealt Batum, landing Noah Vonleh and his abnormally large hands. Olshey vouched for the reclamation project in the 20-year-old Vonleh (3.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and also added essential depth by getting veteran swingman Gerald Henderson in the deal.

Vonleh has started 41 games for the 29-27 Portland Trail Blazers, but only records 16.1 minutes per game, tenth on the team. Olshey looked to initially embark on the path of filling the roster with raw talent who would contribute in a wash of a season. He added starting center Mason Plumlee, via trade from Brooklyn, who’s started all 56 games he’s played in so far this season.

With star point guard Damian Lillard and two-guard C.J. McCollum as regular rotation holdovers from last season, Olshey didn’t throw, what looked to be, his four core pieces into the fire and have their inconsistencies highlighted. Bringing in wings Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless, as well as efficient big man Ed Davis, in the offseason, Portland fielded a competent roster heading into the season.

However, even with the additional pieces Olshey added to the overhauled roster, ESPN’s Marc Stein, and his committee of NBA evaluators, ranked Portland No. 29 in the preseason of his weekly updated power rankings. Few put significant stock in head coach Terry Stotts’ ability to once again crush expectations and field a winner in the NBA with the roster he had at his disposal. With an inconsistent mix of a star (Lillard) and many other unproven commodities, low expectations became tied to Portland’s 2015-16 campaign.

"“The Blazers took the biggest plunge from last year’s final set of rankings, falling all the way from No. 8, with LaMarcus Aldridge headlining four departed starters,” said si.com’s Jeremy Woo in his preseason power rankings. “Expect big numbers, if not efficient percentages, from Damian Lillard. C.J. McCollum could also pick up some of the load but this is no longer a playoff team in the crowded West.”"

That’s the unmitigated beauty of sports on any level. When certain expectations are placed on a respective organization, they can either be met or be conquered. Even before their recent ascension in the Western Conference standings, Portland was a fringe contender in the West with discernible talent outside of Lillard.

That would be a baseline for many teams having to rebuild after their championship timeline expired the previous season. On pace previously to finish the season with 29 wins, at 11-21 back on Dec. 23, the Trail Blazers have blazed a much more commendable trail than meeting expectations and having their youth develop as the season progresses.

The response from @Dame_Lillard regarding All-Star decision: 'Get this team to the playoffs' https://t.co/CD7i23RYiu
— Jason Quick (@jwquick) January 29, 2016

That was Damian Lillard almost one month ago, when the team from Oregon was a mediocre 21-26. Now, the Blazers, as the No. 7 seed in the West, have the inside track to reach the playoffs for the third-straight season. How did we get from a projected No. 28 finish to a favorite to lock down a playoff seed as the calendar nears March?

While Olshey tried to salvage a roster depleted from multiple impactful departures, Stotts has implemented his system — which has created unexpected success.

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The fourth-year head coach has the Trail Blazers take an aggressive amount of three-point shots (28.5 per game) and regularly crash the boards. Portland doesn’t just attack the offensive boards, they feverishly target missed shot attempts. They’re second in the league in offensive rebounding percentage (26.9 percent), which partially fuels their surprising top-10 offense.

It’s a collective effort for Portland, as no player ranks in the top 17 in offensive rebounds per game. That’s been the constant theme for the Trail Blazers throughout the season. Any player outside of Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum can have a major imprint in any given game. However, the aforementioned duo arguably has been the blueprint for Rip City’s magical midseason run.

McCollum, in his first two seasons playing in Portland, was the efficient combo guard who spelled Matthews or Lillard. This year, expectations have ascended and it’s been a process getting acclimated playing next to the scoring machine from Weber State.

"“50-something games into being full-time starters together we’re learning a lot from the other guards and seeing how they mesh on and off the court,” McCollum said during the All-Star break, per Mike Bohn in USA Today. “We need to continue to try to build an everlasting on-and-off the court relationship. …We’re able to score efficiently and effectively, now it’s just about defensively getting together and having that cohesiveness.”"

Lillard’s brash, score first offensive style at the point hasn’t hindered McCollum from putting up ridiculous numbers in his third season in the Association. The product of Lehigh, just a few hours outside of Philadelphia, is sporting, by far, a career-high 20.9 PPG while shooting 44.5 percent from the floor. McCollum’s an offensive spark plug for Portland, who contributes 3.0 Offensive Win Shares, per basketball-reference.com.

McCollum hasn’t flinched with the increase in usage and dependence on his two-way ability. The 23-year-old is progressing as his role has peaked for the Trail Blazers. He’s a bonafide scoring option that can create offense in Terry Stotts’ favorable system. It’s worth noting that McCollum shoots better the more he puts the ball on the floor in a possession, per nba.com.

He doesn’t operate in the catch and shoot role marksman that Klay Thompson encapsulates for the Golden State Warriors, but McCollum has a high chance of continuous success because he is capable of creating offense for himself. McCollum doesn’t have to be hyper-reliant on Lillard to help him become an efficient and diverse offensive player.

The Trail Blazers are 6-1 in February, as McCollum is averaging 22.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game while shooting 50 percent from deep. It’s clear that McCollum’s and Portland’s success are synonymous. Also, Damian Lillard is scorching on the offensive end, which doesn’t hurt Portland’s aspirations for consistent wins.

Currently riding a four-game stretch of putting up 30 points or more, Lillard is evidently showing the critics what they missed when he was spurned out of an All-Star selection. According to nbaminer.com, Lillard is seventh in the league in scoring 25 or more points in a game. It also helps when you’re averaging more than 25 PPG, but Lillard has been the prototype for consistency on the offensive end, despite missing seven games.

He’s also shown the ability to erupt against dominant teams. His 51-point (18-of-28) performance Friday against Golden State wasn’t just a box score beatdown by the Trail Blazers on the Dubs. Lillard displayed potency from deep and put the NBA on notice with his hyper-efficient performance.

He’s not just propelling the Trail Blazers solely on his scoring capabilities. Lillard has dished out five assists or more in every game he’s played in since Jan. 18. Portland is 11-2 during that span and having a point guard that can get a basket or create scoring opportunities for teammates is pivotal for a young organization trying to find pieces to mesh with both him and McCollum. Here, Lillard beats Thompson off the dribble and draws in center Andrew Bogut-which opens up an easy dunk for Plumlee.

Playing with new starters hasn’t been a significant challenge for Lillard, which shows his ability to be a translucent point guard capable of playing effectively with less talent. It also helps that his backcourt mate has progressed exponentially. According to nba.com’s on/off court comparison metrics, he’s more adept on the offensive end playing with McCollum in the backcourt than without him. Putting up 25.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG and 7.3 APG, Lillard forms one of the more youth and talent-laded backcourt pairings in the association with McCollum.

Both Lillard and McCollum have been important contributors in Stotts’ top-10 offense this season, but also have received help from the Aminu’s or the Ed Davis’ of the world. It’s a collective effort that will have Portland hosting one of the West’s heavyweights for at least three games in the postseason. Their ceiling, however, varies based on how Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum perform late in April.

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Portland plays their 57th game this season tonight at home against Brooklyn as 11.5-point favorites, per Bovada odds. The Trail Blazers have played admirably to earn the league’s respect. With a young core and a copious amount of salary to spend, put stock in expecting Portland’s success to continue for multiple seasons.

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Refusing to Lay Down, Portland’s Built for Stability

By Jake Hyman | Feb 23, 2016

The Portland Trail Blazers are outperforming expectations and are a team built to have long term success in the Western Conference.

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