Brooklyn Nets Cannot Afford To Gamble On Themselves

The Brooklyn Nets are in a precarious position as the NBA trade deadline approaches; should the team gamble on itself and stand pat?

Flashback to Tuesday, Jan. 26.

The Brooklyn Nets are hosting the Miami Heat in a matchup that would’ve been a must-see just two seasons ago. In 2016, this game is considered a shoe-in win for the now-LeBron-less Heat. It’s just your average Tuesday night trap game against a bottom-feeding Nets squad.

With his team sitting in the cellar of the Eastern Conference, Brooklyn Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov seldom attends games these days. Tonight is different, though.

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Now in the hunt for a new general manager and head coach, Prokhorov, who recently became the sole owner of the franchise, has promised to spend more time in New York, so as to be more intimately involved in the hiring process.

While he watches the Nets notch yet another loss, Prokhorov sits in his owner’s box, donning his patented facial expression — one screaming of apathy — as usual.

By the end of the game, the “Let’s go Heat!” chants have started. Two seasons ago, the famous “Brooklyn” rallying call was the hallmark sound of the Barclays Center. Now, Prokhorov listens, knowing that the pro-Miami cheers are more demonstrative of Nets fans’ increasing lethargy than an improving sentiment among Heat fans.

As the owner and now the face of the Nets’ front office, Prokhorov has to publicly maintain a positive disposition. Presumably, he understands the volatility of the fanbase right now, much of which can be attributed to the recent move to Brooklyn, which came less than four years ago.

The Brooklyn Nets are in a dangerous position right now. Ultimately, the upcoming Feb. 18 trade deadline is going to very much shape this team’s immediate and long-term future.

Even in the tightly contested East, the 12-34 Nets have no shot at sniffing the playoffs this year. Brooklyn surrenders the ninth-most points per game, and scores the third-fewest. Injuries have ravaged this team, the most notable absence being that of Jarrett Jack, the Nets former starting point guard. Jack, who tore his ACL and meniscus in a game against Boston, will be out for the remainder of the season.

Thanks to the now-infamous Paul Pierce trade, the Nets have no draft pick this year. They have more than $90 million in committed salary, much of that coming from the contract of Joe Johnson. Likely under the impression that they would’ve been a playoff team again (as they were last season) Brooklyn handed multi-year extensions to Thaddeus Young and Brook Lopez, both of whom are impact makers, but neither of whom are real stars.

With no general manager and an unstable coaching situation, Prokhorov has to decide — and quickly, too –in what direction he wants to move his franchise. The ultimate question being, of course, whether he should level the roster before the deadline and start fresh, or stand pat and bank on Brooklyn’s huge market and the few pieces the Nets do have to bring in top-tier talent this summer.

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Lopez and Young are really the only two players on the roster with any noteworthy value. They have played well together this year, and could be a formidable pairing for a competitive Brooklyn squad down the road, should the team return to that point of course. Unlike most of their teammates, though, the Nets’ frontcourt pairing has considerable trade value as well.

Lopez is having another solid season, averaging 19.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He’s shown the ability to be a go-to scorer, and was formerly considered the best offensive center in the league. He’s also played the best defense of his career this year, an area that was once a huge red flag for prospective trade partners.

Lopez was almost dealt to Oklahoma City at last season’s deadline for Reggie Jackson, but the trade fell through. If nothing else, the talks with the Thunder allowed the Nets to gauge Lopez’s trade value a bit, though it’s likely gone down this season, now that his contract is no longer expiring.

Still, it’s safe to say that Brooklyn could bring in a first-round pick for Lopez. A skilled seven-footer is somewhat of a rare commodity in today’s guard-oriented league, so there’s likely a sizable market for a legit low-post threat and big body. Ironically, Boston comes to mind as a suitable trade partner.

Young’s contract is more manageable, and health hasn’t been much of an issue for him. He probably wouldn’t yield a first-rounder on his own, but packaging him with Bojan Bogdanovic and/or Shane Larkin might do the trick. One first-rounder might seem a steep deal for two players, but this would be a salary-clearing move as well for the Nets, assuming they wanted to wipe the slate clean and start fresh.

The more likely option, however, is that Brooklyn stays dormant at the deadline. Per Basketball Insiders:

"Sources close to the process say that there isn’t a lot of urgency to make a deal before the deadline. Instead, the priority is to get new leadership in place and let the future of the team take shape that way.That’s not to say the Nets wouldn’t do a deal, they’re just not overly active in looking for one."

If this is, indeed, what the Nets elect to do, they would be taking an enormous gamble on themselves. The expiring contract of Johnson is an invaluable asset in this scenario. It would significantly contribute to a crucial $40 million in potential cap space that Brooklyn could use to pursue impending free agents like Kevin Durant and Mike Conley, both of whom have garnered significant interest from Brooklyn in recent weeks, according to ESPN and the New York Post, respectively.

The free agency game is a dangerous one though. Lopez and Young have reportedly been recruiting for Brooklyn, but top-tier free agents seldom hop on board with a lottery team. The dysfunction of the front office is yet another surefire turn off.

Then again, the importance of the market cannot be understated. While some argue that the Knicks are the true face of the Big Apple, Brooklyn is still New York City, deemed the “mecca of basketball” by none other than Durant himself.

Still, the chances seem slim that Durant would spurn his Oklahoma City Thunder to begin with, never mind leaving his perennial contender to squad up with the likes of Lopez and Young. His hometown Washington Wizards (represented by two youthful and bonafide stars in John Wall and Bradley Beal) are sure to be calling as well.

Conley is the more realistic target, but once again, it doesn’t seem very likely. The Knicks are going to be in the hunt for the point guard’s services as well, and the Knicks are considered to be far more stable than Brooklyn at this point. Then again, Conley and Memphis Grizzlies teammate Marc Gasol are very close friends, and it remains unseen whether Conley would even have the heart to leave Gasol this summer:

The bottom line is nothing — absolutely nothing — is guaranteed in free agency (*cough, cough, DeAndre Jordan). Brooklyn is certainly one of the more intriguing markets to play in, but the chances of acquiring high-level talent when the roster has as many holes as it does seem slim.

Unfortunately, the way Brooklyn’s front office has conducted business will also likely be a turnoff. Historically, management has had a surprising willingness to throw all of the team’s chips in one pot, often at the expense of the future. It’s no surprise that the more patient front offices — those in Orlando, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and of course Golden State, have had the most successful rebuilds. There’s more to winning than acquiring talent; it’s about establishing a culture.

That culture doesn’t start with the players, who are at the bottom of the hierarchy. Nor does it start with the general manager. It all comes back to who’s on top. For the Nets, that’s Prokhorov.

We’ve seen what a meddling or stubborn owner can do to a team (see: James Dolan — New York Knicks and/or Dan Gilbert — Cleveland Cavaliers). Prokhorov has never been shy when it came to shelling out cash for his team, but in the case of running an NBA franchise, it’s important to be methodical and calculated, rather than eager and quick-triggered.

For this reason, it’s in Brooklyn’s best interest to shop its win-now guys and start building the foundation for the future. Ticket sales will likely decrease, and some fans may get frustrated, but settling for mediocrity is not the way to build a reputable organization. It’s time to commit to the future and start fresh — on the right foot.

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For Prokhorov and his Brooklyn Nets organization, the next three weeks are going to be pivotal. Surely, a businessman like Prokhorov recognizes that constantly playing it safe can be restrictive.

But hopefully, he realizes that the Nets simply cannot afford another front-office catastrophe.