Maurice Harkless’ Game And Restricted Free Agency

Maurice  Harkless hasn’t lived up to his potential in his first few years in the league, but he’s the type of player that the Portland Trail Blazers should take a shot on when he hits restricted free agency this offseason.

Maurice Harkless is a tricky player to evaluate. He’s only 22 years old but is in his fourth NBA season. He has great physical tools at 6’9″ with a 7’0″ wingspan, but has never been that impressive in the box score, even on a per-minute or per-possession basis. Harkless’ three-point shooting will probably be the primary determining factor in his growth as a player.

He shot 38.3 percent from three two seasons ago, but his shooting from there has cratered since then; he’s shooting 26.2 percent this season and 30.1 percent for his career. Harkless’ potential has been apparent since his rookie season with the Orlando Magic, but he has spent much of his early career mired with inconsistent playing time.

Portland Trail Blazers general manager Neil Olshey acquired Harkless for a 2020 second-round pick that is top-55 protected–almost nothing. Olshey should be applauded for acquiring a player of Harkless’ youth and upside. Olshey and the rest of the Blazers front office will have to determine how much Harkless is worth when he hits restricted free agency this offseason.

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Harkless has a unique combination of skills. He is shooting about five three-pointers per 100 possessions despite his poor shooting so far this year. His shot looks fairly smooth and he looks pretty confident taking catch and shoot threes.

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His confidence and increase in three-point attempts indicates that Harkless and/or the team think he should be taking those threes. It hasn’t shown on the floor yet, but one would think that his three-point percentage would increase if there is faith within the organization that he can develop a reliable three-point shot.

The Blazers have a glut of guys who can play the 4 and the 5, so Harkless has played 77 percent of his minutes at the 3 and 20.2 percent of his minutes at the 2, via Nylon Calculus. That’s some pretty unusual positional playing time for a guy who’s 6’9″ with a 7’0″ wingspan in today’s NBA.

This year, opponents are shooting 37.5 percent at the rim against Harkless, which gives him an estimated points saved per 36 minutes of  3.04 via Nylon Calculus. That number is a little bit less than Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh and well better than any non-bigs on the Trail Blazers.

This season he’s protecting the rim at an average rate for a 4 and well above average for a 3. That’s pretty impressive for a guy spending almost all of his minutes at the 2 and the 3 this year.

He’s probably never going to be able to be a good rim protector for a big, but the added rim protection gives him more versatility and helps the Blazers in an area of weakness.

If he’s playing at the 3, he can help the Blazers defense (allowing 104.7 points per 100 posessions, 21st in the NBA) improve, particularly when below-average rim protectors like Leonard and Mason Plumlee are getting major minutes. If Harkless is at the 4 the Blazers can play a fast-paced game with more speed and switching ability.

Pairing Al-Farouq Aminu and Harkless at the 3 and the 4 has been particularly effective this season (194 minutes together) with a net rating of plus-3.6, the highest on the team for duos that have played at least 100 minutes.

Guys like Harkless and Aminu provide balance on the floor when players like Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Allen Crabbe–high-octane offensive players who are poor defenders–are on the floor.

The three-point shooting isn’t where it needs to be at the moment but Harkless has some exciting potential driving to the rim and handling the ball.

His finishing ability will make you jump off your seat in a holy-crap-that-guy-is-super-freaking-athletic type of way. He has solid efficiency finishing in the restricted area (59.1 percent this year) but what’s particularly impressive is the ease with which he’s able to finish over rim protectors and through traffic.

Harkless made it look like Jeff Withey wasn’t even there, and Withey is 7’0″ with a 7’2″ wingspan.

There aren’t many guys in the league who can attack the rim like Harkless.

All of the flashes are fun and exciting but there are still glaring issues. His physical tools give him a lot of defensive potential but he’s still not a clear plus-defender right now. He’s a little spacey on defense sometimes and can struggle with knowing when to switch and when to stay with his man.

He isn’t always decisive with the ball–the ball has a tendency to stick in his hands some times rather than him making quick decisions that keep the ball moving and an offense humming. His jump shot looks like it has potential but his shooting numbers have been pretty consistently bad.

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Right now he’s shooting 30.1 percent from three for his career and 58.3 percent from the free throw line for his career. Those numbers don’t look like the numbers of a guy who has any business shooting threes, but he’s still only 22 and jump-shooting often improves for players as young as Harkless.

The Trail Blazers have a ton of cap space (if the cap jumps to $90 million next year the Blazers would have about $43 million in cap space this offseason) and while it would be nice to sign some big name free agents the odds of that happening are probably pretty slim.

Almost every other team will have a ton of cap space, so the Blazers may end up having to search for low-risk, high-upside contracts like they did this summer with Aminu, Plumlee, Davis, and of cours, Harkless. Whether or not the Blazers sign Harkless obviously depends on how much other teams are willing to give him.

Olshey is probably kicking himself for letting Will Barton sign in Denver for a three-year, $11 million deal that looks like an absolute steal as Barton is having a breakout season.

If Harkless ends up getting offered a contract worth between $7 million and $10 million per year (somewhere in between the Corey Brewer‘s contract and John Henson‘s contract), the Blazers should be willing to take a shot on a high-upside player like Harkless. Harkless is the age of a senior in college and would probably be viewed a lot differently if he were tearing up the NCAA.

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Guys with his tools and potential skill set don’t come along that often and if he reaches his ceiling, he could make a huge difference for the Trail Blazers.