Charlotte Hornets: Is There Cause for Concern?

Should losing four of their last six games raise some red flags for the Charlotte Hornets?

December 9, 2015 was a magical time in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Charlotte Hornets thoroughly dispatched the Miami Heat in a 99-81 victory and claimed the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. They held a 13-8 record and were playing better than ever. Fans were optimistic and visions of playoff wins danced in their heads.

Trouble in Paradise

But, it’s a long season. The adversity has finally arrived. Since the win over Miami they’ve lost four of their last six games, giving them a 15-12 record, which puts them as the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference. What a difference two weeks makes.

It’s not that the Hornets are suddenly a bad team, the East is just deeper than ever. They still have the 10^th best defensive rating (105.5 points per 100 possessions) and the ninth-best offensive rating (102.2 points per 100 possessions) in the NBA, but lately, that hasn’t been good enough.

Those four losses have come to the Boston Celtics, the Orlando Magic, the Washington Wizards, and the Houston Rockets. All teams that made the playoffs last season or are in the playoff hunt this season. They were competitive in each game to the very end, except against Orlando. Sometimes the difference between winning and losing in the NBA is one play.

In the Houston game, Jeremy Lin missed a free throw late in overtime which meant Charlotte only had a one-point lead. On the ensuing possession, Cody Zeller fouled Terrence Jones as he was finishing off a lay-up.

Jones would knock down the free-throw and just like that the Hornets were down by two points. They never regained the lead and ended up losing 102-95. Sometimes one missed free-throw can change the complexion of a game.

Shooting Woes

So, the bounces just haven’t been going their way? That’s part of it, but they also haven’t been playing very well lately. The Hornets have shot under 46 percent in each of their last five games, four of which were losses. In three of the four losses their three-point shooting suffered. Against Boston they shot 31.4 percent from outside, they shot 30.3 percent against Washington, and they knocked down a ghastly 29.3 percent of their three-pointers against Houston.

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Three-point shooting has been an important part of their offensive revolution this season, so when the shots aren’t falling their offense can get ugly. The Hornets have made the 5^th most three-pointers in the NBA this season and they have attempted the 6^th most in the league. What’s that old basketball phrase? “Live by the three, die by the three.” Charlotte may not have died, but their pulse has slowed down quite a bit.

They’ll soon be buoyed by the return of starting center Al Jefferson, he’ll be back for the December 26 game against Memphis. Jefferson is completely healed from his calf injury, but his absence was extended by a five game suspension due to his violating the NBA’s drug policy.

I expected the Hornets to continue winning without Jefferson, but I’m ready to admit I was dead wrong. They need him to diversify their offense. Other than Jefferson, four of their top five scorers are all perimeter players (Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Jeremy Lamb). Their sixth highest scorer is Marvin Williams, a power forward that does most of his damage from behind the three-point line.

Cody Zeller, Spencer Hawes, and Frank Kaminsky have proven to be solid role players, yet they can’t carry the burden of being a primary scoring threat down low. Each player is averaging less than 9 points poor game and is shooting under 50 percent from the field.

They’re different types of players than Jefferson. Their skill-sets are heightened when serving as a change of pace to Jefferson’s back to the basket old-school methods. They are better as a side dish or a dessert, not the main course.

Al Jefferson’s Impact

Jefferson is the perfect safety valve for when the guard-heavy attack gets snuffed out by aggressive defenses or the three-pointers aren’t falling. The Hornets can dump the ball into Jefferson and be sure he is going to get his 18.8 points per 36 minutes on a tidy 50 percent shooting.

That type of consistency is extremely valuable and something I overlooked when Jefferson went down with his injury.

Placing four shooters around a dominant post player like Jefferson means there’s more space for him to operate in the paint, and more open shots on the perimeter when defenses are forced to help on Jefferson. The offense becomes balanced. With him on the court this season Charlotte’s offensive rating increases from 105.1 points per 100 possessions to 107.6.

Their effective field goal percentage also increases from 49.9 percent to 50.4 percent. Not huge jumps, but enough to prove the Hornets are better offensively with their starting center healthy and on the court. When used correctly, there’s still room for traditional post scorers in the pace and space era.

Gut Check Time

It’s early December, but in the NBA a season can quickly get away from you if the losses start to pile up. On Wednesday evening, the Hornets welcome the Celtics back to Time Warner Cable Arena in a game that feels much more important than it did a week ago. Every game against a fellow Eastern Conference contender takes on an added importance due to the tightly packed conference standings. Every win could matter come April.

After the game against Boston they have dates with the Memphis Grizzlies, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Toronto Raptors, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and then the Golden State Warriors. It doesn’t get any easier.

This isn’t your older brother’s Eastern Conference. Every good to mediocre team in the conference won’t just make the playoffs by default as they had in the past. Each team is going to have to earn their way to springtime basketball and the Hornets are no different. They have the coaching and they have the talent, but the other teams aren’t just going to roll over and die.

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The good news is Jefferson will return soon and provide an offensive boost. The bad news is the road ahead doesn’t get any easier. If they don’t buckle down, and start winning again, they may be bound for an all too familiar place. The lottery.

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