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FanDuel NBA: Best Picks, Lineup For Dec. 12

By Michael Yaffe

Dec 9, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) reacts on the court against the Washington Wizards in the fourth quarter quarter at Verizon Center. The Rockets won 109-103. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 9, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) reacts on the court against the Washington Wizards in the fourth quarter quarter at Verizon Center. The Rockets won 109-103. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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Read on for the top four picks at each position and a sample lineup for Saturday’s FanDuel NBA evening games.

Dec 4, 2015; New York, NY; New York Knicks forward Kristaps Porzingis (6) battles for the ball with Brooklyn Nets guard Jarrett Jack (2) in the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports
Porzingis was overpriced on FanDuel for a while. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports /

The Peter Principle is a long-standing concept in the business world which postulates that employees will keep getting promoted until they reach a “level of incompetence.” It’s one of those half-truths that is both serious and funny at the same time, and so far it has withstood the test of time since its publication in the late 1960s.

In similar fashion, certain FanDuel NBA players’ costs have risen to the point where the player is seemingly no longer capable of returning value, but we keep going back to the well after having had success with them in our lineups, hoping to rekindle the magic.

The New York Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis is a case in point. He is certainly competent as a player and there’s little doubt that he has a bright future. That said, expectations were low before his breakout happened, as he was initially viewed as more of a project player from the international ranks.

ALSO ON HOOPSHABIT: NBA: 25 Greatest Scorers of All-Time

Accordingly, Porzingis’ cost started out less than $5,000, but it became apparent that he would not stay in the “budget buy” category for much longer and his price began to steadily increase.

As long as Porzingis was below the mean of $6,666, he remained a low-risk/high-reward option that could be used to help balance out elite players like the New Orleans Pelicans’ Anthony Davis or the Golden State Warriors’ Stephen Curry while remaining cap friendly.

Although he was becoming a more popular lineup fixture (playing in NYC certainly helps in that regard) the rookie was still viewed as matchup dependent; as long as he hovered around the FanDuel equator we still had the luxury of choosing when to deploy him without breaking the bank.

Then Zinger-mania happened, and for a while the rookie was approaching must-start status.

But at that juncture his cost was well more than $7K and he was no longer capable of providing cap relief to counterbalance established veterans who were pedigreed scorers; now it was as though he was one of them, and you had to find value plays just to offset the addition of Porzingis in the lineup.

In almost Peter-esque fashion, as Porzingis’ value reached its plateau he started delivering duds again, initially with a 16.6 fantasy point performance at Milwaukee on Dec. 5; however he rebounded with 35.9 fantasy points in a home loss to the Dallas Mavericks in the subsequent game.

While that may have felt reassuring to the DFS community, the reality is that even 35.9 fantasy points aren’t enough to justify a $7K-plus cost (for more on this please reference the basic strategy), but his level of popularity had already outweighed analytical thinking at that point.

Porzingis’ 6.6 fantasy point night at Utah on Wednesday was the reality check. The NYC media was quick to blame his struggles on the elevation, but interestingly the Salt Lake Tribune’s recap focused on the “ups and downs” of life as an NBA rookie, with no specific reference to elevation-induced fatigue.

The truth is probably somewhere in between those two disparate accounts of his clunker, but the most empirical fallout is that his price has regressed back to a manageable $6,700 for his tilt against the Portland Trail Blazers Saturday evening.

I’ve been shying away from Porzingis myself lately, but unlike reality where workers are often captive after being promoted into positions they can’t handle, I am bullish on the Latvian Flagpole this evening for the first time in a while, not just because of the opponent (Portland is second-worst on FanDuel vs. opposing PFs over their past 10 games) but because Porzingis seems very capable of returning value at the new cost in general, without the added constraint of having to perform like he’s already on the all-NBA third team.

Next: Top Four Point Guards