NBA: A Basic Strategy For Daily Fantasy

There are numerous analytics services available that will generate a Daily Fantasy NBA lineup for you based on projected stats, home/road splits and even Vegas totals. While these tools can be useful aids for minimizing guesswork, the fun of being a fantasy GM is selecting your players and watching them succeed, which can still be done effectively with a minimalist framework.

In this post, I will outline a basic strategy for selecting DFS lineups based on FanDuel’s salary cap. Initially, we’ll have to utilize last year’s performances to make predictions, but due to free agency movement, position eligibility changes and an exciting infusion of rookies into the league, in some ways we’ll have to start with a blank slate and tailor our expectations accordingly as the 2015-16 season progresses.

Expectations Based On Salary Cap And Individual Cost

In FanDuel, you select a total of nine players (one center and two players at each of the other four positions) with $60,000 to spend, or $6,666.66 per player. For purposes of this discussion we’ll set a target total of 300 points, or 33.33 points apiece, with the understanding that there will be some nights that 280 will get you into the winner’s bracket and other times upwards of 350+ is required; however 300 seems like a happy medium for now.

Since no one in FanDuel costs exactly $6666.66, you will need to make your decisions based on how far from the average you are willing to deviate when you select your players. Because we are trying to keep things simple, here is a quick guide to anticipated scoring based on cost ranges:

Over $10,001: 51+ points
$7,501-$10,000; 41-50 points
$5,001-7,500: 31-40 points
Below $5,000: 20-30 points

If you want to get technical it’s okay to infer a more concrete estimate for players falling at the extremes of a given salary range (for example), but for the most part I’m just trying to set expectations that less expensive players should have a lower ceiling.

Evaluating External Factors

Multiple factors can impact whether a player from a given salary tier is expected to provide the value listed; here are some of the more pressing concerns:

The Opponent – The matchup should probably be the first consideration when determining whether a player is going to return value. Offense-minded players who are slated against strong defensive teams (like the Chicago Bulls) or teams that prefer a slower pace (like the Utah Jazz) will generally be less productive because of the reduced number of possessions overall, which inhibits their ability to score points or gain assists.

Fatigue – It’s important to be aware of which team is playing the latter half of a back-to-back, or who’s on their fourth game in five nights. It’s always tempting to look for the “run and gun” opportunities when perusing the schedule, but a tired squad can just as easily get run ragged, leaving the 20/20 players on the court to complete a game that turned into a laugher early, while your promising selection gets an early night off and sabotages your lineup in the process.

Rest Days –

The flip side of the “fatigue” category is watching the news wire to see if an older player is getting a break, which can spike the value of a depth option who would receive an increase in minutes and responsibility as a result.

Dec 1, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker (left) and forward Tim Duncan (right) dressed in plain clothes share a laugh on the players bench during a game against the Philadelphia 76ers at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /

For example, the San Antonio Spurs have made a habit of resting veterans like Tim Duncan, which in this case would provide a higher ceiling for LaMarcus Aldridge, and to a lesser extent David West, although the latter would be the more affordable option of the two and possibly a better source of value as a result.

Home/Road Splits –

Some players have a tendency to fare better at home when the crowd is behind them. While this trend may be commonly associated with first and second-year players, the split can be viable for established veterans as well, especially if their team is almost unbeatable in their friendly confines.The Golden State Warriors were a staggering 39-2 at home last season, and as stated in the

shooting guard preview

Klay Thompson

was among those who profited from playing at Oracle Arena, as he scored an additional 3.5 points per game there while draining nearly half of his three-point attempts (48.1 percent) as opposed to 39.1 percent in road games for the 2014-15 season. So the locale plays a major factor in his case.

Vegas Lines – The over/under, or “total” is thought to be a source of prevailing wisdom for daily NBA leagues because higher totals should be indicative of a higher scoring game. While these thresholds can be accurate at times, keep in mind that their sole purpose is to induce equal wagering from both sides so the sports book can make their money from the 10 percent commission regardless of the outcome, so it doesn’t really matter to them how close the total actually is to the end result as long as it’s profitable for the house.With that being said, we can still look at the over/under for some initial guidance, but the movement of the total based on biased wagering may not reflect mitigating factors like players who are game-time decisions that end up sitting out. Furthermore, the total is most impactful for scoring-dependent players that don’t contribute in other categories like rebounds, blocks, etc., so there is definitely value to be had from a cager with a high defensive rating who also contributes points and/or assists in a game, despite the lower anticipated total score.

Identifying Building Blocks

The easiest way to make a FanDuel lineup is to identify the one player you “have to have.” This person would generally be the most expensive person on your roster, and their cost will then dictate the supporting cast.

For example, Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans) has an initial price of $11,200. If you deduct his cost from the $60k cap that leaves you with $48,800 for your remaining eight players, or $6100 apiece, so adding a player of Davis’ caliber will drop the mean cost for the rest of the lineup by over $500!

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I am not trying to imply that extravagantly priced players should be avoided, but if you choose to build around one of them you will need to identify suitable depth options that can contribute well enough to justify the initial investment. The chart indicates that Davis should provide at least 51 DFS points based on his price, but given that his cost is over $11k (as opposed to $10,001) you should expect a much higher ceiling if he’s your feature player.

Let’s say Davis scores 60 DFS points, which is a decent return. Since we are trying for 300 total the remaining players on the roster need to come up with 240/80, or 30 points apiece, which is certainly doable, even if we complement Davis with nothing but average ($6k) level options.

But what happens if there aren’t enough serviceable players in the $6k range to fulfill the quorum? Now you have some decisions to make. Let’s say you add Reggie Jackson (Detroit Pistons) to the lineup at $8,300 for one of your PG slots. Now you are left with $40,500 to fill seven slots, or just under $5,800 each. In other words, you just spent one-third of your cash on two players when it should have been allotted to three spots.

At this point you will need to pay a visit to the bargain basement or you’ll run out of money. The lowest cost for a player is $3,500, but you can’t just insert a minimum cost player without regard for what they contribute because you need at least 20 points from the “below $5,000” category or you’re going to fall behind the pack in tournament games. It’s unrealistic to hope for an eight-player roster to absorb the dead weight because there won’t be enough overachievers given the cap limitations.

Stanley Johnson might be an early DFS source of value on the cheap. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports /

So instead maybe you add a reserve like the Detroit Pistons’ Stanley Johnson, who is not in their starting lineup (not yet, anyway) but at $4,300 that’s probably okay since he’s been a multi-category producer this preseason who can make the most of his time on the floor. The three players’ combined cost of $23,800 leaves you $36,200, or just over $6,000 for the remaining six slots, which is starting to look more palatable.

Filling a DFS lineup this way is an iterative process, where we start with an expensive cornerstone for the roster (or perhaps a mini-stack from the same team), then work our way above and below the average remaining cost to form lineup ideas. If you can’t foresee 300+ combined points from the finished product, you may need to tweak some of the higher cost players to see who else you are willing to live with; otherwise you may need to blow the whole thing up and start from scratch.

For my upcoming series of Daily Forecasts, I will highlight some of the best options among the pricing tiers, then come up with some lineup ideas that seem competitive using the featured players listed. Hopefully over the course of the season the level of consistency will increase as we continue to compile performance-based data.

No one can back a guarantee that their Daily Fantasy NBA lineups will get you the high score every time, but by making educated decisions you can often stay afloat financially long enough to hit a big winner once in a while. Remember, you are wagering on humans, not machines, and their variance in predictability is what makes it fun and interestingly frustrating at the same time, which is why most of us keep playing the game.

Next: NBA: The Big Question Facing Every Team In 2015-16

NBA: A Basic Strategy For Daily Fantasy

By Michael Yaffe | Oct 22, 2015

Expectations Based On Salary Cap And Individual Cost

Evaluating External Factors

Identifying Building Blocks

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