Indiana Pacers: Will Paul George Sustain His Otherworldly Play?

In 2013-14, Paul George got off to a simmering start for the Indiana Pacers only to fall off as the season wore on. Will history repeat itself this year?

PAUL GEORGE IS BACK!

After suffering a gruesome, vomit-inducing lower leg injury — resurrecting the horrifying glimpses of Shaun Livingston‘s devastating leg bend that occurred nearly a decade prior — during a Team USA intrasquad scrimmage in preparation for the 2014 FIBA World Cup, George spent the majority of last season rehabbing from the clean break on his left leg.

Before that haunting summer day at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, PG was widely regarded as one of the brightest rising stars the NBA had to offer — a contemporary two-way wing blessed with an aesthetic brand of effortless athleticism, and the type of neverending length that gave Jay Bilas an aneurism at the mere thought of his wingspan.

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The Palmdale, Ca., native’s road to stardom was an atypical journey to say the least. As a prospect, George was unsullied by the fortunes of predraft hype — failing to really stand out during his two years at Fresno State despite his rare concoction of physical gifts.

Drafted to serve as a 3-and-D specialist, George would unexpectedly blossom into something more.

Each year PG-13 got a little bit better, and each season he saw his role expand. He went from the fringe fifth wheel on the Indiana Pacers’ veteran-ladened starting lineup, to the temporary “go-to” replacement for the often-injured Danny Granger; from an important piece of the team’s playoff puzzle — a piece that orbited around David West and Roy Hibbert, to the franchise’s undisputed MVP.

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In many ways, his meteoric ascension to All-Star status was the organic product of the steadfast foundation of a well-ran organization. Larry Bird and the Pacers brass blessed George with an environment to develop gradually. Praise was tethered with every shimmer of hope, while patience was preached when a mental lapse was made.

George’s brilliant play was essentially an extension of his role in Indiana’s “Blue Collar, Gold Swagger” motto.

While the willowy 6’9″ swingman was far from the ideal offensive player — with glaring deficiencies surrounding his sloppy ballhandling, inconsistent J, and inability to draw fouls — he was the chief engine for much of the Pacers’ success. Not only was he the team’s only reliable offensive threat out on the perimeter, but his bothersome D on the wings also served as the yin to the interior wall of verticality of Hibbert’s yang.

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But then his injury happened — which lead PG to miss 76 games last year.

Not surprisingly, Indiana crumbled without the presence of their lone outside scoring threat, missing the playoffs for the first time since the franchise drafted George in 2010. Surveying the incumbent NBA landscape, Bird would decide to tear their trademark identity apart — namely, by trading away Hibbert, followed by the contentious departure of West.

As the 2015-16 NBA campaign commenced, the Pacers braced for a brave new world — one that featured the return of PG and free from the sombering pace of seasons past.

For much of the preseason, the storyline hovering around the Pacers drifted towards George’s new role as a power forward and the team’s exploratory small-ball makeup. Fast forward to present day, the doom-and-gloom concerns were much to do about nothing.

The fast-paced and downsized frontcourt was supposed to decimate their defensive prowess, but the Pacers currently rank second in defensive rating, allowing 5.7 fewer points per 100 possessions than last season, per NBA.com.

Meanwhile, PG is still wreaking havoc out on the perimeter, as C.J. Miles has alternatively assumed much of the defensive power forward responsibilities when the Pacers deploy their small-ball alignment.

Head coach Frank Vogel has somewhat altered their defensive scheme, however. Chiefly, without the lumbering Hibbert anchoring their backline, the Pacers’ bigs are hedging out much higher in pick-and-roll action, while their guards have ratcheted up their ball pressure. Moreover, with their positionless look, Indiana has been switching a lot more — especially during the fourth quarter of games.

Offensively, George is enjoying, by far, his finest season as a pro.

Maybe it’s the optimized spacing manufactured by their hurried tempo, or maybe it’s all that time PG spent exclusively on his shooting, as he patiently allowed his lower extremities to heal. Whatever it is, this present day version of Paul George is an entirely different animal when compared to the past renditions.

His handle is noticeably more elusive — although, he is still quite careless and loose at times — and he has the utmost confidence in his pull-up jumper, being capable of stopping on a dime and rising up at a moment’s notice, even from 30 feet out.

In fact, he’s posting careers-highs in points (26.5 PPG), rebounds (8.2 RPG) and assists (4.3 APG) per game, not to mention accomplishing the rare feat of simultaneously peaking both his usage rate (31.6 percent) and offensive efficiency (60.2 true shooting percentage, 114 offensive rating).

However, this is not the first time George has enjoyed an out-of-body experience to start a season. If you recall, PG came of the gates of 2013-14 campaign with a similar fervor.

To be more specific, before the calendar year hit 2014, the two-way pterodactyl was averaging 23.8 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals a contest on 60.2 true shooting percentage and an individual offensive rating of 114 — a brand of production eerily similar to his current level of output.

But, as the season wore on, so did George, and his early hot hand proved to be nothing more than a mirage. After the new year, Paul’s raw stat line plummeted down to 20.4 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game, while his TS% and ORtg nosedived to 52.6 percent and 102, respectively.

As such, should we expect the same regression to the mean? Or is this Paul George — the Paul George who is playing better than anybody not named Stephen Curry at the moment — here to stay?

For the first 30 games of the 2013-14 season, George was simply unconscious from mid-range, nailing approximately 51.9 percent of his field goal attempts from 16-24 feet — an area of the floor that accounted for almost 22 percent of his shots. In comparison, PG was a career 37.1 percent shooter from the said area of the floor up to that point.

In addition, Paul was making over 53.2 percent of his pull-up 2-point attempts, while Kevin Durant — who captured the MVP that year — shot 43.8 percent in such instances.

Sure enough, George failed to maintain his supernatural shooting pace, as he ended the season shooting 39.2 percent from 16-24 feet and 41.9 percent on his off-the-dribble forays from inside the arc.

Thus far this season, George has taken his abnormally hot hand, and moved it out to 25 feet and beyond — making over 46.3 (!!!) percent of his three-point attempts heading Thursday’s game against Portland, while heaving up nearly seven threes a game.

However, much of his money ball success comes from catch-and-shoot opportunities, as opposed to off balanced shots via a live dribble. Explicitly, roughly 20.7 percent of his offense derives from catch-and-shoot threes, where he converts on over 55.9 percent of such attempts.

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In conjunction to exploiting a more viable avenue of offense, George is also finishing at a slightly higher rate from in close. In fact, PG is converting 59.7 percent of his shots from five feet and in, where surprisingly, when taking into account his length and leaping ability, is not a historical strong suit of Paul’s — making just 55.5 percent of his field goal attempts at the rim two years ago.

With that being said, the chances that George has developed into a Curry-esque three-point shooter is probably wishful thinking. He is also wildly outperforming his past performance from long two — basically, he has been unreasonably hot from 16 feet and out when compared to his prior standards.

But the fact that he has significantly improved his finishing at the rim, in conjunction with his present dire percentages from 10-16 feet — which should improve based on the law of averages and the fact that defenses will start to close out harder on George from here on out — lends credence that we are witnessing the real PG.

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Hot hand or not — mirage or reality — one thing is for certain: at this moment in time, Paul George is so damn fun to watch.