Charlotte Hornets: Team Can Survive Al Jefferson's Absence

Despite an injury to Al Jefferson, the new-look Charlotte Hornets will be just fine

The Charlotte Hornets’ hot start to the 2015-2016 season has been one of the most surprising stories in the NBA. Despite losing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to a season-ending injury early in the preseason, the Hornets currently hold a 10-7 record, which would place them as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference if the season ended today.

Of course, it’s December 1^st and nothing is even close to being settled in terms of playoff seeding, but it’s been encouraging to see the team have success despite prognostications that they would end up in the lottery after the injury to Kidd-Gilchrist.

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However, the bright and shiny start to the season for the Hornets finally had its first cloudy day. On Monday evening, the team announced that starting center Al Jefferson would miss the next two to three weeks of action due to a left calf strain. Jefferson sustained the injury in the first quarter of Charlotte’s Sunday afternoon victory over the Milwaukee Bucks.

Last season, or especially two seasons ago, losing Jefferson for a significant portion of the season would have been a death sentence for the Hornets. While he’s still been a solid contributor this season, the offense doesn’t revolve around him anymore. Even missing Jefferson for the entire three weeks won’t send their season down the drain.

Through 17 games, Jefferson is averaging 13.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game on 50 percent shooting. He’s only averaging 26.2 minutes per game, and his usage rate has dropped from 29.3 percent two seasons ago to 24.3 percent this season. He’s obviously a valuable part of the offense, the Hornets just don’t play through Big Al as much anymore.

Steve Clifford has embraced the pace and space era this season, giving Charlotte a brand new identity. The transformation has led to winning and even a contract extension for Clifford. Charlotte Hornets basketball is no longer all about grinding the pace to a halt and throwing the ball down low. The Hornets have remodeled their offense to feature a ball movement oriented style of play and a three-point heavy attack.

Charlotte currently has the 7^th best offensive rating in the NBA, scoring 106 points per 100 possessions. They had gotten as high as 4^th best in the NBA before an ugly game against the Bucks tugged their rating down slightly. They’ve made the 6^th most three-pointers in the NBA and hold the 11^th best three-point shooting percentage in the league. Five players on the team are shooting above 35 percent from outside, including Kemba Walker, who is having the best season of his career.

Clifford has even shown a willingness to bench Jefferson late in games when he wants to feature a more versatile offensive lineup that can also provide some rim protection. That would have been unthinkable in 2013-2014 when Al Jefferson post-ups were Charlotte’s primary source of offense.

Even with a lesser role, he has still proven to provide a positive impact on the Hornets scoring. With Jefferson on the court this season, Charlotte’s offensive rating jumps from 104.1 points per 100 possessions to 107.6 points per 100 possessions. On defense is where it gets tricky. Charlotte’s opponents offensive rating is 106.3 points per 100 possessions with Jefferson on the court and 96.9 points per 100 possessions without him. The Hornets may get a defensive bump without him in the lineup.

With Jefferson on the shelf look for Cody Zeller to slide into the starting lineup alongside Marvin Williams. That also means more minutes for Spencer Hawes and first-round pick Frank Kaminsky. Tyler Hansbrough may even get in on the action if Clifford elects to go with a deeper post rotation.

Zeller has been decent in his third NBA season. He provides energy off the bench and has averaged 6.8 points and five rebounds per game on 45.9 percent shooting. His outside shooting has never materialized, as Zeller is 1-for-10 from three-point range for his entire career and is a career 30.5 percent shooter from between 16 feet and the three-point line.

Despite never developing into the stretch big man many projected him to be, Zeller has shown himself to be a fantastic athlete and runs the floor exceptionally well. He’s not a great defensive player, but he’s gotten better over his first three seasons. His defensive rating is currently 101 on the young season, a mark that would be the best of his career. Players guarded by Zeller are shooting 45.9 percent this season, and while that’s not indicative of a dominant defensive player it certainly isn’t horrible. He at least provides more active defense than the slow footed Jefferson.

Given his size, skill, growing strength, and overall basketball IQ there’s always the possibility that increased playing time will lead to Zeller having a breakout season. With Jefferson out of the lineup, we should find out sooner rather than later.

If Zeller doesn’t get the starting nod, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Clifford keep him in his sixth man role, Spencer Hawes might find his name among the starting five. Hawes and his awful head of hair have quietly played well for the Hornets this season. Though you wouldn’t know that just based on his statistics.

The conservative center has played in 16 games, averaging only 16.2 minutes per game. In that time he’s scoring 4.9 points and grabbing 3.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 39 percent from the floor and 30.8 percent from three-point range.

Those numbers may not jump off the page, but when Hawes is on the court he serves his purpose just fine. He acts as a big body to clog the lane on defense and he keeps the ball moving on offense. He’s a good passer and the ball rarely seems to stick in his hands. He’s not going to suck the life out of possessions by posting up and foolishly going to work in the paint. If he doesn’t have an open look, he keeps the ball whipping around the court.

Hawes’ game may not be pretty, but it’s been effective. In fact, one of Charlotte’s best lineups by net rating is one featuring Jeremy Lin, Jeremy Lamb, Marvin Williams, Hawes, and Frank Kaminsky. In just under 48 minutes together, this lineup has outscored opponents by 33.3 points per 100 possessions.

Kaminsky also stands to get more playing time. After struggling to find the court early on, Kaminsky has started to earn Steve Clifford’s trust, leading to more minutes. He’s played at least 15 minutes in each of his last seven games and is starting to find his way as an NBA player, but more on his development later in the week.

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Let us not forget Tyler Hansbrough. Tyler Hansbrough has a beating heart and six fouls, so if one of the other three aforementioned big men or Marvin Williams get into foul trouble Hansbrough will be ready and waiting to provide his intriguing brand of high energy basketball.

The quartet of Zeller, Hawes, Kaminsky, and Hansbrough just has to hold down the fort until Jefferson returns. The offense is very guard-heavy, so if the big men can defend competently and score just enough to get by Steve Clifford and Hornets fans will be content.

Next: NBA Power Rankings: Week 5

These aren’t your slightly older brother’s Charlotte Hornets. This squad wins with offense and relies on balance rather than letting Al Jefferson carry a heavy scoring burden. They’ll feel his absence, but it won’t sink their season like it might have in years past.

Jefferson can focus on healing without worrying about the team cratering without his presence. They’ll be just fine.

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Charlotte Hornets: Team Can Survive Al Jefferson’s Absence

By Andrew Snyder | Dec 1, 2015

Despite an injury to Al Jefferson, the new-look Charlotte Hornets will be just fine

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