C.J. McCollum Is The NBA’s Most Improved Player

Ability + Opportunity = Success. In its most simple form, that equation spells out the path to stardom in today’s NBA. The Portland Trail Blazers C.J. McCollum is following that formula and is looking to run away with the NBA’s Most Improved Player award for 2015-16.

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Often a player is missing part of the formula, as McCollum showed in 2014-15, when he didn’t have the opportunity. Being stuck behind Wesley Matthews, Arron Afflalo and Nicolas Batum prevented him from displaying the talent that got him drafted No. 10 overall back in the 2013 NBA Draft. With those players out of the way, the equation has cleaned up and rings truer than ever.

To win the NBA’s Most Improved Player award, one must be able to put the ball in the basket. It’s been a decade since Boris Diaw won the award as more of a complete player (13.3 pts, 6.9 reb, 6.2 ast), but since then no player has averaged less than 16.1 points per game. Recently, the award has also been prophetic as to the future success of the winner. Four of the previous five winners — Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Paul George and Kevin Love — receive All-NBA consideration on a yearly basis.

ABILITY

McCollum, a 6-foot-4 guard out of Lehigh University, has always been able to score. He averaged 21.3 points per game in his four years in college, including a stellar senior campaign (cut short by a broken bone in his left foot) in which he averaged 23.9 points with a shooting line of .495/.516/.849.

Playing at a small school and putting up big numbers isn’t something that Portland was afraid of, as they struck gold taking Damian Lillard out of Weber State just a year previous. It didn’t hurt that McCollum shined when the spotlight was the brightest, with his No. 15 Mountain Hawks defeating the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in the 2012 NCAA Tournament. McCollum scored 30 points with six rebounds and six assists to knock off current teammate Mason Plumlee and the Dukies:

Draft Express nailed his scouting report back in 2013, though it took a few NBA seasons for McCollum’s opportunity to catch up with his talent:

“At 6’3 with a 6’6 wingspan, McCollum emerged as a prolific, versatile combo guard with a shoot-first mentality early in his collegiate career. A fluid athlete who lacks top-end speed and explosiveness, McCollum has done it all for Lehigh over the last three and a half seasons, carrying the scoring load for long stretches against relentless pressure.

In addition to his improved shooting, McCollum continues to show the ability to get into the paint using changes of speed and direction to keep defenders guessing. Possessing a good first step, but lacking blow by quickness and elite leaping ability, McCollum isn’t as prolific at the basket as he is from the perimeter, but he shows good body control and a willingness to draw contact.”

OPPORTUNITY

In the NBA, opportunity comes in two different but equally important forms — playing time and usage. One can be on a team of stars and get the playing time, but have trouble finding their role (like Kevin Love on last season’s Cavs).

For McCollum, he’s the permanent starter at the shooting guard spot and has been given the ultimate green light, as coach Terry Stotts continues to encourage him to fire away. With Lillard often getting the most attention, McCollum will savor this time as he flies under the defense’s radar. C.J. has taken that to heart this season, as he’s averaging more field goal attempts per game (19.7) than Lillard (19.3).

Eventually — and the last two games against the Phoenix Suns showed this — teams are going to take the approach of stopping either Lillard or McCollum. Luckily, C.J. is comfortable handling the ball and can then make a smooth transition into an off-the-ball threat.

ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton has noticed that McCollum has become more comfortable functioning as a facilitator at times:

Good drop pass from CJ McCollum to Ed Davis to draw a foul on that pick-and-roll. That's a big step for him.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) October 31, 2015

Being able to not only start at the two, but play backup minutes at the point, will keep McCollum in the game and will allow him to move around based on matchups and in-game trends.

SUCCESS

Although the Suns did an admirable job slowing McCollum down in the past two meetings, he’s still averaging 22.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals on an excellent shooting line of .458/.409/1.000.

His opening night performance against the New Orleans Pelicans will go down in Blazer’s lore, as he scored 28 points in the first half alone (22 in the first quarter), en route to a career-high 37 points. If he wanted to make an impression in his first game as the everyday starter, he did just that.

After that eruption, McCollum came back to earth a bit, averaging 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.5 steals in two games against the Suns. One could worry about his 35.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from the 3-point line, but McCollum still found himself getting open shots.

Over those two games, McCollum got a whopping 7.5 shots per game when the closest defender was 4-to-6 feet away from him. He shot just 20 percent. Five of those attempts were from the 3-point line, with McCollum hitting just 10 percent of them. Shooters go cold at times and that’s all this is — an aberration due to a small sample size.

Will we see McCollum bust out and get white-hot and score 40? Absolutely. Will he have cold periods where he’s forced to defer a bit more? Certainly. The good news is, he’s got the ability to thrive in both situations and this Trail Blazers team (and his coach) are giving him all the opportunity to take advantage.

Your 2015-16 NBA Most Improved Player (health willing), is none other than C.J. McCollum.