NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

8.  Boston Celtics:  41-41

Weakest month:  February — 12 games, .435 (29th)

Hardest month:  April — 7 games, .530 (11th)

Overall strength of schedule:  25th

Brad Stevens received two first-place votes, four second-place votes, and 28 third-place votes for the Coach of the Year crown last year.  Based off his accomplishment of getting the Celtics through the ugly rebuild faster than the Lakers, he should’ve had at least 20 first-place selections.

Boston went through many ups and downs during the 2014-15 season — from Marcus Smart severely hurting his ankle, to dealing with a wild Rajon Rondo trade, to storming into the playoffs after another point guard trade.  Once they dealt Rondo to the Mavericks and received Jae Crowder, Brandan Wright and Jameer Nelson, it wasn’t thought that Danny Ainge would come out smiling from ear to ear.

Crowder turned into a player that Stevens could rely on.  On top of being the hardest worker on a roster makeup that clearly values effort and intensity, Crowder was a guy that could fit into tons of different lineup combinations.  In Boston, he found a niche that fit him … mainly because it wasn’t clearly defined or hellbent on him playing at one spot.  That’s the beauty of this roster in front of Stevens — you can literally do a hundred different things with it.  During the early parts of the season, it helps to see if certain guys are comfortable switching positions, or taking on duties they’ve never been accustomed to.

As a result of Stevens encouraging Crowder to find his unknown strengths, the 3-year forward was ample in many categories. Crowder’s rebounding percentage nearly doubled (from 6% in Dallas to 10.5% in Boston) while his turnover percentage fell in the opposite direction (11% to 6.9%). That’s what you strive for in player development; improving different areas of your game at the same time.  Crowder became much more active on the boards, while being less careless with the ball in his hands.

The critical question surrounding Boston is whether or not they have “too much depth.”  It sounds silly, because depth has somewhat become the golden treasure of the league.  If you go 9 or 10 deep with competent players, it puts less strain on the starters and preserves them for the playoffs.

However, Boston’s current roster breakdown is a bit absurd:

Guards

• Marcus Smart
• Isaiah Thomas
• Avery Bradley
• Terry Rozier
• Evan Turner
• James Young
• R.J. Hunter

Forwards:

• Jae Crowder
• Jonas Jerebko
• David Lee
• Amir Johnson
• Jared Sullinger
• Jordan Mickey
• Perry Jones

Centers

• Tyler Zeller
• Kelly Olynyk

That’s 16 players for Brad Stevens, 13 of which are suited for the pro level.  Hunter, Mickey, and Young would be considered the weakest links of the current depth chart.  Hunter and Mickey are only rookies, with both needing to advance their games before contributing to a playoff team.  Rozier is also fresh into the NBA from the 2015 draft class, but he’s already received the support of Danny Ainge from his forceful scoring season at Louisville.

The maximum NBA roster size is 15 players under contract, but only 13 can dress as “active” for games. Some good, capable players are going to be missing out on playing time … or even cut from the roster.

There’s no logical reason Boston would decline this year. A full season with Isaiah Thomas as their sixth man should put them on track to exceed this projection of 41 wins, barring anything tragic happening regarding injuries.  The only reason they’re just one win better than last year is because of two teams above them (one coming up next) having Boston’s missing link:  Superstar power.

It’s hard to put together impressive winning stretches without a top-tier player, but the Celtics were as close as possible after February.  Once they obtained Thomas at the trade deadline, Boston formulated the 4th most wins to end the season (20-11 record).

A major ingredient for their turnaround was how well Thomas and company played as an unselfish group.  After Feb. 19, Boston’s assist-to-turnover ratio was 1.89 in those 31 games.  How well did it stack up against the true title contenders?  It ranked 3rd in the league, behind only the Warriors (2.01) and Clippers (1.92).  If you were to ask Brad Stevens if he envisioned having a better assist-to-turnover ratio than Gregg Popovich’s Spurs (1.82), he would drop his jaw.

What’s going to help the Celtics reach the playoffs again this year is definitely their speed, and ability to wear other teams down.  Last season, they squeezed in because the offense was much more refined than it was during Stevens’ rookie coaching season.  They were faster. They were meaner. They made it a nightmare for teams to defend every possession, since they would get up and down the floor in a blur.  Boston ranked 5th in Pace last season, getting about 96 possessions per game. In terms of keeping defenses on their toes, Boston also jacked up the most shots per game last year (87.9).

It’s not impossible to see Stevens’ young leprechauns slipping out of the race at the end of the year, but I’ll grant the final seed to a nice weaponry of quickness, guard-play, selfless offense, and players with a chip on their shoulder.

If I were the Lakers, I’d be humiliated by losing this battle of “first to get back to the playoffs!”

Wait … they already lost it.

Next: 7th Seed