NBA: 2015-16 Eastern Conference Projections

9.  Milwaukee Bucks:  39-43

Weakest month:  October/November — 18 games, .428 (29th)

Hardest month:  December — 16 games, .541 (6th)

Overall strength of schedule:  23rd

Instead of the deer being hunted, shot, and field dressed … I’m probably the one in danger here.  Bucks apologists aren’t too kind when you paint a negative connotation about their squad.  To be fair, this reaction from Milwaukee’s fanbase is 100% warranted, since Jason Kidd supplied one of the biggest turnarounds in NBA history.

The reason the NBA has appealed to me more than the NFL, MLB, or college sports is because of the building process.  It’s rare to find a team jump from the bottom of the barrel to instant playoff certitude in just one calendar year.  Building blocks within the NBA tend to take three or four years of experimentation before the bright lights can shine.  Basketball isn’t quite like baseball or football, where a team hurdling from a .183 winning percentage to .500 would be a common story.  Evolving into a contender takes time.

The other part of the equation is also why the NBA is king:  It usually takes a couple years to dwindle in the opposite direction as well.  With overwhelming talent on your roster, there’s just no realistic way you see a top four seeded team fall into the lottery pack so quickly (unless you’re the Blazers and have your starting five thrown into a tornado).

Milwaukee proved to be the exception to my little observation here.  They headed in a great rebuilding direction after dumping Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings.  What made them different is simple:  The young, athletic pieces clicked insanely faster than anyone thought.  While Mike Budenholzer and Steve Kerr hit unforeseeable marks last year, it was Jason Kidd who assembled the greatest case for Coach of the Year:

Kidd’s arrival in Wisconsin may have been planted with controversy, but he proved exactly why he should have the responsibility of making personnel decisions.  His knowledge of how to use the many combinations of lineups with this roster, disseminating a powerful work ethic to the younger kids on the team, and embracing the “underdog” identity were all factors in getting Milwaukee to the postseason.

This probably doesn’t happen with any other coach available at the time.  Kidd put all the critics to rest with a 41-win season, completing a nonsensical 26-game turnaround.  In NBA history, the list of teams to avenge a poor season with that level of resilience is shallow.  Milwaukee’s 26-win difference was higher than the resurgence of Atlanta with Horford’s return (22), Cleveland with LeBron’s return (20), and the Warriors with Kerr’s arrival (16).

As Kidd started to attain a great player-coach relationship with his players, including his former sensational point guard (Brandon Knight), the Bucks’ offense appeared to be a step up from last season.  In overall field goal percentage, Milwaukee improved from 26th last season to 7th in 2014-15.  When the only teams shooting better are the Wizards, Mavericks, Spurs, Hawks, Clippers, and Warriors … you’re obviously excelling with good looks at the rim.

Their field goal percentage dipped to just the 19th highest after trading for Michael Carter-Williams, though.  More on that depression in a bit.

Of all the impacts Kidd brought to the culture of Milwaukee, none was more tangible and significant than the defensive outlook.  Right out of the gates, you could sense most of the players’ alertness being on defense — a task never easy for a coach to accomplish. With most of their top options being 25 or younger, it’s usually a difficult time trying to get everyone to coincide with a defensive approach.  Usually, guys want to score in bunches and worry about defense with their leftover energy.

On this team, there was no relegating defense to lesser importance. Either you defended your position well, or Kidd would find the optimal lineup to provide stops.  In regards to team ranking, this mattered more than anything:

Keep in mind, defensive rating is precisely the number of points per 100 possessions your team allows.  It has nothing to do with field goal percentage defense, or turnovers forced.

For the graph above, this is the way you should view it:  The larger the gap between the blue and red bars, the greater the change.  That is, if the blue bar is much longer than the red.  As you soak in the Bucks’ dramatic shift, notice that no other team came remotely close to Milwaukee’s recovery. Only the Jazz and 76ers leaped in defensive rating by 10+ ranks, with Utah improving to 14th and Philadelphia entering the top 15 as well.

In all three categories, Milwaukee has changed the perception of their organization:

• 26-win shift
• 26-rank improvement in defensive rating, holding opponents to 9.6 less points per 100 possessions than the 2013-14 Bucks
• 19-rank improvement in field goal percentage, shooting 2.1% better from the field as a team

Here’s the major issue — Milwaukee was already 53 games into the season when they decided to trade away Brandon Knight.  By the time 53 games are in the book, these trends above were apparent.  They were 30-23 in those games before Feb. 19, had the 8th-highest True Shooting Percentage in the league, and owned the 2nd-best defense (behind only the NBA champions, Golden State). All of this was without trading for Michael Carter-Williams.

Now, the reasoning for parting ways with Knight had a lot to do with his upcoming free agency situation.  I completely understand why Kidd and GM John Hammond would think about dealing him.

But, could they not read between the lines?  It’s a serious question.  Did they honestly not dig deep into the statistical advantages and upswing their team was experiencing?  Being on pace for 47 wins when Feb. 19th arrived, Milwaukee was accelerating their progress faster than any team we’ve ever seen.  47 wins would have sent Milwaukee in the mix for a top four seed out East, and we may have witnessed something special:  A woeful 15-win, 15-seeded team turning the tables to a second-round playoff team.  Without anything resembling LeBron James or Kevin Durant on the roster.  Name a time when someone skipped through the process that quickly.

Needless to say, the Bucks’ decision to pull the trigger on a 3-team trade with Philadelphia and Phoenix resulted in their biggest headache.  When Hammond fired the bullet, he would soon realize how virulent it would be to his own team.  Knight was sent to complete the Suns’ backcourt, and Carter-Williams was apparently sent to be a stomach virus for Milwaukee.

It’s alright, if you think about it — stomach viruses improve with proper treatment, and Carter-Williams is no exception.  He can erase the negative association with two factors:  Intensive work on his offense during the offseason, and time.  More times than not, it just takes time.  To expect a 3-year guard to live up to all your expectations would obviously be a mistake.

Nevertheless, the playoffs are unforgiving to young players.  Carter-Williams being young and in the building process doesn’t erase the fact that Miami and Indiana still have better backcourts.

The projection on Milwaukee will be rather simple:  There’s the ceiling, which probably features the Bucks as the 5th seed with 45+ wins.  That’s only achieved next year if everything falls the perfect way, with Jabari Parker making an incredible difference with the offense, AND Miami or Indiana not stepping up.

Then, you have the lowest floor, which has the Bucks in the realm of 36-38 wins.  I’ll land in the middle, since I place a little more substance on having a top-tier talent (Paul George, Dwyane Wade, or Chris Bosh).

I’m hoping Milwaukee blows 39 wins out of the water, just so I can have the physical proof that last season was no accident.

Next: The Playoffs -- 8th Seed