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Charlotte Hornets: Potential Front Line Combinations For 2015-16

By Andrew Kennedy

Dec 27, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14) gets a rebound during the second half of the game against the Orlando Magic at Time Warner Cable Arena. Orlando wins 102-94. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 27, 2014; Charlotte, NC, USA; Charlotte Hornets forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (14) gets a rebound during the second half of the game against the Orlando Magic at Time Warner Cable Arena. Orlando wins 102-94. Mandatory Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports /
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A summer full a moves that has many questioning just what the Charlotte Hornets are doing sets up some interesting questions when looking at what the 2015-16 season has in store for the franchise.

Trades, signings and first-round draft picks from the past four years makes for a crowded frontcourt full of a number of potential lineup combinations.

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Even the starting lineup may not be exactly clear at this point. One thing is for sure and that is the Hornets have many directions they can go.

Probably the most certain starter on the frontline is Al Jefferson at center, one of the few low-post threats that still commands a double-team.

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Newly acquired Nicolas Batum should start at small forward every game if not injured. Last season, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist started 52 of 55 games and Marvin Williams started 37 of 78 games.

The depth at small forward screams for small ball lineups but the Hornets are loaded with enough traditional 4s and 5s that we will undoubtedly see a number of big lineups as well. Cody Zeller started 45 of 62 games his second NBA season last year and will likely be the starting 4 at the start of this coming season.

When going small, having the trio of Batum, MKG and Williams should keep Charlotte from ever having to slide the likes of Jeremy Lamb or P.J. Hairston to the 3. We should also expect plenty of two-point guard lineups between Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lin and Brian Roberts.

Let’s take a look at the potential frontline combinations we will see this season:

Likely starters – Jefferson, Zeller, Batum

Spacing is going to become an immediate concern with this lineup with Zeller at the 4. Zeller and Jefferson shared the floor for 883 minutes last season and had a minus-2.0 point differential per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com.

They were about a point worse per 100 possessions defensively with these two but three points better offensively, so they were able to find a way to make it work. Zeller hit a decent 39.0 percent on jumpers from 15-19 feet so he has to be respected somewhat from that area. Jefferson was even better from that range (43.9 percent) and shot from there more frequently than Zeller.

They can make it work together offensively. The defense is where they can hurt you, but remember Zeller was just in his second season and it’s always tough for a young player to adjust to NBA offenses quickly. Both Batum and especially MKG are plus defenders at the three and should be able to help lineups with Jefferson and Zeller on the floor together.

Small – Jefferson, Batum, MKG/Williams

With the way the NBA is going, almost every fan base wants to see more small ball from their team. The additions of Batum definitely gives the Hornets the chops to go this direction, even if we haven’t seen a lot of it in the past. The Batum-Williams pairing at the 3-4 spots will provide the best outside shooting.

Batum knocked down just 32.4 percent from three last season but is a career 36.3 percent from distance. Williams made 35.8 percent last season. You lose outside shooting with MKG (he didn’t even attempt a triple last year) but you gain defense and the added spacing will help MKG offensively.

There will be a big concern defensively relying on Jefferson at the 5, but he fared pretty well in small ball lineups last season with MKG. Two of the three most common small ball lineups that involved Jefferson, the Hornets had basically an elite defense allowing 93.3 and 95.9 points per 100 possessions.

That numbered ballooned to 100 or more when it was Williams at the 4 with Jefferson and no MKG. The combination of MKG and Batum should be the best defensively and potentially, the best lineup Charlotte will put on the floor next season.

Zeller at the 5

What about going small with Zeller at the 5? Zeller didn’t do that much last year as he was mostly sharing the floor with Jefferson or Bismack Biyombo. The only lineup Zeller was on as the 5 for more than 30 minutes was one with Jason Maxiell at the 4, and the Hornets gave up 117.3 points per 100 possessions with that group. So Zeller at the 5 may not be the greatest idea.

The alternatives however are Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky, which would hardly be upgrades. Since we didn’t see much of Zeller at all as a 5 last season, expect lots of Hawes getting backup center minutes.

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    • Bench mob

    Speaking of the bench, there will be a lot of new faces in Charlotte occupying those minutes, including Hawes, Kaminsky, Tyler Hansbrough and Lin, none of whom is known for their defense. The good news is MKG will likely see a lot of minutes with that unit since Batum should start.

    That will help but Hawes’ defensive rating was a poor 104.6 last season and Hansbrough’s was not a ton better at 101.6. Throw in Lin and Lamb or Hairston as the bench mob’s perimeter players and getting stops could be a huge problem with the starters are out. Small ball may not be the answer defensively but what’s gained offensively may make it the best option.

    The Hornets have a ton of options with what to do with their front lines. There are definitely some intriguing combinations they can go with, but it may take some time to develop chemistry with all of the new faces. After an injury-plagued season, the added depth is much-welcomed but even at full strength, it looks like Charlotte will have some holes to deal with.

    It will take some creativity to minimize the deficiencies with some of these lineups up front, but the Hornets look like they can be in better shape than last season.

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