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Portland Trail Blazers Draft Profile: Justin Anderson

By Chris St. Jean

Mar 20, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Justin Anderson (1) reacts to a play during the second half against the Belmont Bruins in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 20, 2015; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers guard Justin Anderson (1) reacts to a play during the second half against the Belmont Bruins in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Time Warner Cable Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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For the Portland Trail Blazers, heading into what figures to be an amazingly busy free agency period, and with the possibility of conveying their first round pick next season, a lot is riding on their 23rd overall pick in this June’s draft.

We’re into the teeth of many team’s pre-draft workouts now with less than two weeks before the draft. Portland brought in a number of intriguing prospects last week, one of which was University of Virginia junior small forward Justin Anderson.

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Many mock drafts declare that Portland will select Anderson with the 23rd pick including Draft Express and almost all agree that he’ll be drafted somewhere in that range.

So what does Justin Anderson offer the Blazers?

The short answer is shooting and defense. At first blush, that seems to match the Blazers ideals perfectly. A match made in heaven as they say. But is that truly what Portland will prioritize in this year’s draft?

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Anderson projects to be a solid defender at the NBA level. At just over 6’6″ with a 6’11” wingspan and 231 pounds, Anderson seems to fit the bill physically.

He’s not quite as long and rangy as current Blazers small forward Nicolas Batum, but he’s got a bit more physicality and bulk and in theory he would provide more shooting.

Anderson should be just fine from day one on the defensive end. Obviously that’d be an asset for the Blazers (especially considering the dirty little secret that Batum is not quite the defender that his reputation would indicate).

A lot has yet to be determined for the Blazers this season, but if they bring back the majority of the core, they’ll be hoping that the rookie they take at No. 23 will be able to contribute in some way right away.

The fact that Anderson’s defense won’t keep him on the bench is important. Of course in the modern NBA, an offensive liability could be just as detrimental to playing time as inept defensive skills.

In order to get enough playing time to contribute, Anderson will need to be a threat on offense, especially in Terry Stotts’ motion “Flow” offense where almost every position has to have the ability to play with the ball in his hand.

That’s going to be the biggest question mark for Anderson. Anderson is really only considered a first round pick because of the impressive improvements of his outside shooting he exhibited in college.

After shooting under 30 percent from long range in his sophomore season over 102 attempts, Anderson made a startling improvement that helped launch the Virginia basketball program to almost unseen heights. Anderson finished the season with a three-point shooting percentage of 45.2 percent on 104 attempts, according to College Basketball-Reference.

But that number is clouded by the way he opened the season in November and December shooting the lights out (59 percent and 63 percent, respectively). Outside of those first two months of the season, Anderson shot only 33 percent from long range on 58 attempts, much closer to the 29 percent he posted in his sophomore year.

On the other hand, Draft Express did a great job of breaking down the noticeable improvement in Anderson’s mechanics from year to year in their videos. That’s encouraging and a sign not only that Anderson’s shooting improvements are less fluky but also that he’s willing to put in the work to improve.

When Anderson worked out for the Boston Celtics he spoke with Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe:

"“What fires me up is people say, ‘You’ve got to work hard on your game and you’ve got to improve in the offseason,’ and then I did that, and people are questioning why my 3-point percentage went up,” Anderson said. “That’s what fires me up.”"

If Anderson can shoot from the outside and defend his position then he is an NBA rotation player and could be on day one if the shooting holds up. That’s a question, but there’s evidence that it will.

But the Blazers may be in need of more than just a 3-and-D guy. They bought second round pick, Allen Crabbe, from the Cleveland Cavaliers, two seasons ago. He shot 35 percent from long range last season and 42 percent from the corners according to Basketball Reference.

I think it’d be questionable how much of an upgrade Anderson would be over Crabbe (if at all) in his rookie season.

But if Anderson is able to offer anything else, that could make him extremely valuable. In college, Anderson struggled to finish in traffic or to change direction with the ball. He’s a bit more athletic than someone like Crabbe, but he’ll likely have trouble adding anything but catch and shoot ability at the NBA level, at least at first.

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    • That’s what set Wesley Matthews apart from just a 3-and-D guy before he got injured this season. Matthews supplemented his knock down outside shooting with a strong post game and some ability off the dribble. He had a better points per possession (0.99) on post ups than LaMarcus Aldridge did last season, according to NBA.com’s Play Type statistics.

    If Anderson wants to get to that level then he’ll have a lot of work to do. Even in college, Anderson struggled when he was forced to create for Virginia and had questionable shot selection at times in a very rigid offense.

    He doesn’t have any semblance of a post game, he’ll likely really struggle to finish over NBA length at the rim, and he can really only go left at this point.

    If the Blazers are looking to supplement their core, Anderson’s defensive ability at the small forward position and ability to knock down open threes could be really valuable. Those are the two things that Nicolas Batum struggled with last season. But Batum’s playmaking ability is often overlooked.

    Although playing Anderson would put even more pressure on Lillard and Aldridge to create offense, it could help bring their defense to new levels and there were many offensive possessions that started with great ball movement and ended with a Batum miss from the corner.

    Of course, if the Blazers have a drastically new look after the offseason, they may want to look for more upside and less duplication of skill set with a young player ready on the roster (Crabbe) and go in another direction.

    Unfortunately for the Blazers, they’ll have to make their draft day decision before they have any answers about how free agency will play out.

    Next: What the Blazers Can Expect With the 23rd Pick

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