Detroit Pistons: Draft Dilemma Ahead As Lottery Looms

Despite being in the lottery each of the last five seasons, the last time the Detroit Pistons were in the top three of the NBA Draft was in 2003, when the lottery draw of the Memphis Grizzlies yielded them the No. 2 overall pick from a long-forgotten trade.

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But the Pistons’ reward for stealing a future first-round pick from the then-Vancouver Grizzlies in August 1997 in exchange for what turned out to be 47 games of Otis Thorpe became a punch line that NBA fans still invoke to this day.

That’s because then-Pistons president Joe Dumars apparently paid way too much attention to the pre-draft hype surrounding Serbian big man Darko Milicic and made Detroit the unwitting dupe in a trivia question that reads like a college entrance exam multiple-choice question:

Name the one that doesn’t belong in this group:
A) LeBron James
B) Darko Milicic
C) Carmelo Anthony
D) Chris Bosh
E) Dwyane Wade

The draft lottery is back on Tuesday night, with the Pistons in the mix for the sixth consecutive year.

Detroit finished 32-50 and has an almost 3-to-1 shot (72 percent) of picking eighth.

The Pistons can pick no lower than 11th, but in order for that worst-case scenario to play out, some combination of three teams from the group consisting of the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Utah Jazz, Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder would all have to jump ahead of Detroit.

The Pistons have a 2.8 percent chance of grabbing the top pick and a 10 percent possibility of landing in the top three.

But would a top three pick really address what the Pistons need?

The top four prospects by consensus—big men Karl-Anthony Towns of Kentucky and Jahlil Okafor of Duke and guards D’Angelo Russell of Ohio State and Emmanuel Mudiay from Dallas via Guangdong—all play positions that might not mesh with the core that Stan Van Gundy currently has in place.

The big men, in particular, could lead to a recurring nightmare—after three years of trying to force the square peg that was Greg Monroe into the round hole that was the power forward slot after drafting Andre Drummond in 2012, the last thing Pistons fans would want to see is another promising young big forced to play out of position and battle for post touches with Drummond.

Monroe will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Mudiay is nice, but the Pistons already have Reggie Jackson and Brandon Jennings at point guard and must deal with the continuing annoyance of the NBA’s insistence on enforcing its restrictive “one ball on the floor at one time” rule.

Of the top four, Russell might be the best fit, but that would still require having to move either Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Jodie Meeks out of the 2-guard spot and likely off the roster entirely.

No, the gaping hole in Detroit’s roster right now is at the small forward position.

Tayshaun Prince is a free agent and, much like, Cartier Martin and Caron Butler is veteran roster filler at this point in his career.

If the Pistons hold their spot at No. 8, there could be up to three attractive small forward options on the board—Justise Winslow of Duke (not likely), Stanley Johnson of Arizona (most likely) and Croatian Mario Hezonja (6-to-5 and pick ‘em).

And should the worst happen, Kansas’ Kelly Oubre and Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker would likely be available a bit further down the draft board.

That leads to the great existential question of the draft—should a team take the best player available or draft the best player available at the spot they need?

The thing about the bigs—Towns and Okafor—is that Towns might have the skill set to successfully transition to the 4 in the NBA, but Okafor likely does not.

With Drummond likely to be offered a max extension before the Oct. 31 deadline for first-round picks in the 2012 class, at least according to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press, it seems as if Van Gundy is content to once again hitch his wagon to a shot-swatting, rebound-grabbing, free-throw clanking center in a similar mold to what he had with the Orlando Magic in a young Dwight Howard.

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This is a key draft for the Pistons, who have several of the pieces in place to potentially compete for a playoff spot in the moribund, top-heavy Eastern Conference.

And after a month’s worth of speculation pending the final bounce of the ping pong balls, that speculation will start to at least be shaped by the actual draft order.

For what it’s worth, DraftExpress.com has the Pistons taking Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis with the No. 8 pick, while ESPN.com’s Chad Ford has Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein eighth on his big board and Jeff Goodman’s mock has Johnson falling to Detroit at No. 8.

Detroit hasn’t made the playoffs since 2009 and has lost 50 games or more in five of the last six seasons. The lone exception was the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign, when the Pistons were 25-41—a mark that projects to 31-51 for a full season.

With some solid pieces in place, Van Gundy needs this draft to go well … if for no other reason than to help the team stop looking so much like the Island of Misfit Toys.

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