Detroit Pistons draft odds: What are the chances of landing the #1 pick?

Adam Silver, Detroit Pistons, NBA Draft (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images)
Adam Silver, Detroit Pistons, NBA Draft (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images) /

Despite fairly high preseason expectations for the Detroit Pistons, they finished as the worst team in the league this season. Their underperformance, although disappointing, does have its benefits. Along with the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets, the Pistons have the best odds of landing the first overall pick in this year’s draft.

Considering that this year’s prize is Victor Wembanyama, who is widely considered to be one of the best NBA draft prospects ever, Detroit could quickly turn things around with the luck of a ping-pong ball. That being said, what happens if they fail to get the number one pick? What are the odds that they pick second or third? Let’s take a look at the Pistons’ full draft odds.

Detroit Pistons full 2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds

As mentioned earlier, the Pistons will share the top lottery odds for the first overall pick with the Spurs and Rockets. Additionally, they have identical odds for the second-fourth picks:

  • 1st pick: 14%
  • 2nd pick: 13.4%
  • 3rd pick: 12.7%
  • 4th pick: 12%

Unlike the Rockets and Spurs, who tied for the second-worst record in the NBA this season, the Pistons are guaranteed at least a top-five pick. That is due to them finishing with the worst record, which limits their floor and their risk of falling in the draft order. Take a look:

  • 5th pick: 47.9%

As you can see, Detroit has nearly a 48% chance at the fifth pick. That would obviously be incredibly disappointing, but compare that to the Spurs and Rockets, who could theoretically draft as low as 6th or 7th depending on the flip of a coin, and Pistons fans will surely take that worst-case scenario over the alternative. On a positive note, the Pistons do have a 52.1% chance at a top-four pick.

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Even if they fail to land the top pick and select Victor Wembanyama, or even the second selection, they could still wind up with arguably the second-best player in the draft and a player that fits their roster better. Ultimately, we’ll have to wait until May 16th, to find out where Detroit will draft, but they will have as good a chance as any to end up with the first pick.