The NBA Draft Lottery’s History Doesn’t Bode Well For The Philadelphia 76ers

We’re now only 16 days and counting away from the May 19 NBA Draft Lottery and the team with arguably the most at stake is the Philadelphia 76ers.

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Not only do the Sixers have what is projected to be the No. 3 overall pick, but they have a chance – although it’s a slight chance, to say the least – at walking away from the lottery with either the Los Angeles Lakers pick, the Miami Heat’s draft pick, or possibly even both.

But when you look at the unique situation the Sixers are in as the draft lottery nears, it’s safe to say history doesn’t do much to provide the optimism Sixers fans would love to have, in regards to how many picks Philly could walk away with that night.

To illustrate this, I’ll break it down by which pick each team is currently projected to have after the draft lottery.

76ers’ Pick

Mar 19, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes guard D’Angelo Russell (0) dribbles against the Virginia Commonwealth Rams during the second half in the second round of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Godofredo Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The 76ers finishing with the third-worst record in the NBA leaves them with the third-highest chance at landing the coveted No. 1 overall selection at 15.7 percent. But this isn’t the pick the Sixers and their fans should be worried about, as this is the only pick Philly is guaranteed to land, regardless of where in the top six the Sixers’ ping pong balls land.

But of course, when you enter the draft lottery, the prized possession of the draft lottery is the top overall pick and the freedom and flexibility that comes with it.

In the 30-year history of the NBA Draft Lottery, only seven times has the team that entered the lottery with the third-highest percentage chance of landing the top pick actually walked away from one of basketball’s most festive nights for the bottom-feeding fan bases with that top pick, per RealGM. The most recent example of this came with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2013.

From a sheer percentage viewpoint, this seven out of 30 odds, or 23.3 percent plays out to be a noticeably higher number than the 15.6 percent chance the team with the third highest chance to draft in the top spot begins with.

Lakers’ Pick

As it As stands, the Lakers are projected to end up with the No. 4 overall pick based on where they found themselves in the overall NBA rankings at the end of their disappointing season.

Apr 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Byron Scott (middle) in the second half during the game against the Sacramento Kings at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

If the Lakers pick falls out of the top five, that pick will become Sam Hinkie’s. But that has only happened 20 percent of the time in the 30-year history of the lottery.

Six out of 30 aren’t the most encouraging odds for those who would love to see Philly convey that pick and walk away with someone like Duke’s Justise Winslow, but historically speaking, 20 percent is far from a long shot and when you consider it happened in both 2010 and 2011, there’s plenty of reason to believe the Michael Carter-Williams trade may reap it’s benefits much sooner than expected.

Heat’s Pick

The Miami Heat’s pick is the one the 76ers can go ahead and assume is as good as gone. Despite the draft lottery being around for 30 seasons, there have been at least 10 teams in the lottery only 25 of those years.

In those 25 draft lotteries, the team projected to land in the No. 10 overall spot based on how they finished the season has only fallen out of the top 10 two times and this hasn’t happened since 1999.

The only other instance of this came in 1993, where the projected third pick landed at No. 6 overall, the projected fourth pick landed at No. 7 overall and the projected No. 10 pick fell to No. 11 in the draft.

As you can see, history doesn’t necessarily favor the Sixers hopes of stockpiling all of the possible picks they could have after the lottery. If the ping pong balls rolled in Philly’s favor, the Sixers could have the potential to finishing establishing the foundation of their rebuild once the draft rolls around, but the odds of everything falling into place as the Sixers may hope is slim to none.

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