Lance Stephenson: Where It Went Wrong
By Jon Shames
Misery. Disappointment. Resentment. Confusion.
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Sadly, those have been the primary emotions that Lance Stephenson has evoked from Charlotte Hornets fans in his first season with the team.
Despite valiant efforts to stay optimistic, thousands of Charlotte fans were angry and saddened when the season ended with no indication of an imminent turnaround for the 24-year-old guard.
In fact, Lance Stephenson’s drop off was one of the NBA’s more disturbing stories this season, for fans across the league. A chippy, hard-working highlight machine became nothing more than an afterthought in the conversation of the Association’s next wave of stars.
He went from prospective All-Star to the NBA’s least valuable player.
But note that “least valuable” doesn’t mean “worst.” Talent doesn’t disappear overnight; it doesn’t work like that. And Stephenson, prior to this season, was demonstrating that he had loads and loads of talent. Hence the reason the Hornets decided to spend $27 million on the former Pacers star.
While his skill didn’t necessarily regress, his numbers did. He did have a bad season, statistically speaking. After averaging 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game with the 2013-14 Pacers, Stephenson put up just 8.2 points 3.9 assists and 4.5 boards this past year.
He did play nearly 10 fewer minutes per game, mind you, but by the end of the year he had pretty much played himself out of Steve Clifford’s rotation. A player efficiency rating of 8.87 (the league average is 15) sums up Lance’s lack of offensive production in one concise number.
Worse yet, the single record he broke this year was an ugly one: it was concluded, based on percentage and shot volume, that Stephenson had the worst three-point shooting season in NBA history.
Yikes.
But, as bad as Lance was for Charlotte last year, it’s unfair and somewhat ridiculous to denounce a player with the skill set he has. Did he have trouble adjusting last year to a new system? Absolutely. Did he see a regression with his jump shot? Sure. But most of his struggles seemed to be mental — so, fixable.
We talk about confidence, and its importance at the NBA level. Trusting one’s own abilities is crucial. Lance Stephenson certainly struggled last year from a lack of confidence, the mental issues extended further than that.
He just wasn’t being himself.
He was thinking too much about the game, and that became very evident very quickly. Throughout the season, he went through these strange cycles of polarized aggression; one game he’d refuse to look for his own shot, and the next he’d jack up 17 attempts from the field.
It was clear that his flip-flop style was just perennial overcompensation — just doing the opposite of whatever he had done the game prior.
If he’s going to eventually make his Hornets tenure a success, the first step is playing consistently. Even after playing 61 games for Charlotte last year, he was unable to figure out his niche. This, in part, is due to the inconsistent minutes he was given by Clifford.
Clifford made some questionable rotational decisions throughout the season, electing to bench Lance in numerous fourth quarters, and by the end of the year, Lance was hardly seeing any floor time. During the Hornets’ final push for the playoffs, Clifford opted to sit the former starting shooting guard.
Although Clifford was only trying to make his team better (Charlotte’s offensive rating was plus-5.5 with Stephenson on the bench), it backfired a bit when Clifford decided to play Stephenson for small stretches.
In the three games he did appear in during April, Stephenson was averaging 6.3 shot attempts in just 13.7 minutes, and put up just 0.7 rebounds and 0.3 assists per game. He surrendered his versatility and became a one-dimensional shot-jacker. He wasn’t playing for the team; he was playing for the sake of his individual floor time.
Although it’s nobody’s fault, the myriad of injuries Charlotte experienced last year undoubtedly played a role in Stephenson’s lack of identity as well. He himself missed 21 games, meaning at best he had 61 contests to figure everything out. That wasn’t the case, either; Stephenson often played without Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, and/or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the lineup.
When he’s hardly seeing court time with a fully-intact roster, there’s going to be some issues developing chemistry and an idea of personal uses and limits.
But of course, some of the blame has to come back to Lance. And it does: the strangest thing to see was his indecisiveness with the ball. He had been a relentless attacker with the Pacers, using a strange but successful combination of size, ball-handling and strength to get to and subsequently finish shots at the rim. He was a bulldozer, but with some finesse.
But last year — while he had his moments — he often waited before making his move, letting the defense get up on him before doing anything. It’s strange, as he’s not very athletic, and doesn’t have the explosiveness of some of the league’s other slashing shooting guards like Monta Ellis or James Harden.
Instead of attacking the defender’s closeout, an easy way to get into the lane, he tried to take his man straight off the dribble, using small, choppy steps that hardly faked anyone out.
Sometimes, it worked:
Unfortunately, that was one of the few exceptions (against one of the worst defenders in the NBA, mind you). More often than not, the defender didn’t bite on his unconvincing inside-out dribbles, or his high crossovers, and he was forced to defer to a teammate.
For an offense that struggles to create in the 24-second window given, Stephenson chewing up a big chunk of the clock doesn’t help.
It seems that Stephenson simply neglected his own length and strength this season, and despite watching film, wasn’t able to adjust. Take this clip, for example:
Stephenson, in this scenario, gets his defender to bite on his inside out, and with a quick crossover, he’s able to send Tolliver hobbling. If you watch closely, Stephenson has a clear lane (about 11 seconds into the clip). Tolliver has his left foot planted in the center of the free thrown line, and his right hand is behind his back.
Greg Monroe — hardly a rim protector as is — is on the right block and doesn’t seem interested in rotating over, and Caron Butler is playing the pass to Marvin Williams on the wing.
With one hop step or gallop, a move heavily employed by Lance in 2013-14, he could get to the rim for a wide open left-side layup. Instead, he opts to take the step-back jumper from 18 feet — the most inefficient area on the court. He makes the shot in this video, but it’s a good example of him settling when there are better options available.
He can certainly create in isolation, but he has to understand that his craftiness is more of an advantage in non-ball-dominating situations, when he can get his defender chasing him. The Pacers’ offense excelled with him because he was making entire defenses shift, rather than just one player.
Despite the Hornets’ lack of shooters, it would be highly advantageous for Stephenson to draw help-side defenders before dumping it off to an open man or taking a shot.
He has the tools to be an excellent offensive player, he just has to tap into them. As a 24-year-old with not much NBA experience, that can only be done in the right situations.
Each of the timeless warriors that are able to play into their late 30s — Paul Pierce, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki — know their respective roles like the back of their abnormally large hands. It’s important not to try to do too much, and step out of that role, and Stephenson (hopefully) learned that the hard way this year.
It’s not going to be easy for Lance if he’s to recover from this horrible 2014-15 campaign, but that recovery begins with recognition. He’s got to understand himself as a basketball player, better than any media member can. Barring injuries or trades, expect the 2013-14 Lance Stephenson that we all know and love to make his eventual return, but this time, in a Charlotte Hornets uniform.
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