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Assured A Top-4 Pick, Wolves In Position To Add An Impact Player

By Phil Watson

Apr. 08, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders looks on during the first quarter of the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Apr. 08, 2015; Portland, OR, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders looks on during the first quarter of the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports /
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The buzz around the 2015 NBA Draft revolves around four players—a pair of bigs in Duke’s Jahlil Okafor and Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns and two guards in Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell and former Dallas prep star Emmanuel Mudiay, returning stateside after a stint in the Chinese Basketball Association.

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That suits the Minnesota Timberwolves just fine, considering that one of the big four—if that’s how the final pre-draft evaluations pan out—will have the opportunity to come to Minneapolis.

The Timberwolves finished with the second-worst record in franchise history, 16-66, and have a 25 percent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick.

But more importantly than that, Minnesota has a 64.3 percent probability of gaining one of the top three picks and cannot pick lower than No. 4 overall.

Draft Express lists Towns, Okafor, Mudiay and Russell as the top four in its most recent mock draft.

NBADraft.net’s latest mock has Towns, Okafor, Russell and Mudiay in those spots. Chad Ford’s big board at ESPN.com reads Towns, Okafor, Mudiay and Russell (although that could change post-draft, apparently).

You get the point.

It’s overwhelmingly likely that one of those four players will be joining last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Andrew Wiggins, and an extremely young core in the Twin Cities that includes Slam Dunk Contest champion Zach LaVine; former No. 1 overall pick Anthony Bennett; 2013 first-rounders Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng; and Atlanta’s 2014 first-round pick, Adreian Payne.

There will be at least one player in the locker room who does have to shave every day, at least, unless Flip Saunders decides to try and move 31-year-old Kevin Martin, who has two years and more than $14 million left on his contract (the final year of which is a roughly $7.4 million player option).

Wiggins is the star of the show. The likely NBA Rookie of the Year averaged 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists and a steal in 36.2 minutes per game, shooting .437/.310/.760. And the Toronto native via Kansas started all 82 games—the only player on the roster to appear in every game.

But LaVine had a better-than-expected rookie season, averaging 10.1 points, 3.6 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 77 games (40 of them starts) and shot .422/.341/.842. Dieng started 49 games at center and averaged 9.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, two assists, 1.7 blocks and a steal while shooting .506/1-for-6/783.

Muhammad was limited by injuries to 38 games, but was making an impact when he was healthy, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.2 assists while shooting .489/.392/.717.

Payne played well in spurts after being acquired from the Hawks on Feb. 10, averaging 7.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and an assist in 24.8 minutes per game on .418/1-for-8/.659 shooting. And bear in mind he came with some rust—he played 19 minutes for Atlanta and 17 games in the D-League before arriving.

The Timberwolves have a chance to have three consecutive No. 1 overall picks on the roster next season, but the jury is still very much out on the 2013 top pick, Bennett.

Acquired along with Wiggins in the Kevin Love trade last summer, Bennett had an underwhelming rookie season in Cleveland, averaging 4.2 points and three rebounds on .356/.245/.638 shooting in 52 games and 12.8 minutes a night.

He was only slightly more whelming with Minnesota, averaging 5.2 points and 3.8 boards in 15.7 minutes a game while shooting .421/.304/.641.

On the positive flip for Bennett, his fouls per 100 possessions dropped from 7.2 as a rookie to 4.9 last year. But his scoring and rebounding pace were identical, despite better shooting numbers, his offensive rating was an unsightly 96 (points per 100 possessions) and his player efficiency rating a below-middling 11.4 (15 is average).

Given Nikola Pekovic’s injury history and Dieng’s limited offensive upside, a big man would appear to be the need in Minnesota.

That means Towns or Okafor, but they are likely off the board if the ping pong balls don’t bounce Minnesota into the top two picks.

And Pekovic—who played in just 31 games last season and has never missed fewer than 17 games in his five NBA seasons—has a contract that would have to be considered just about untradeable without something toxic coming back in return.

Pek is owed $12.1 million next season and in 2016-17 and will receive $11.6 million in 2017-18. Inking Pekovic to a five-year, $60 million extension was one of the first things Saunders, the team president, did in 2013 and it’s one of the things Saunders, the coach, is now saddled with.

A wild card in the mix is franchise icon Kevin Garnett, reacquired at the trade deadline before playing in just five games. He can become a free agent this summer unless he opts to retire.

The Associated Press, however, reported earlier this month that he expects Garnett to return for a 21st NBA campaign.

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    • The best-case scenario is a pick in the top two and a shot at Towns or Okafor.

    But Saunders told Fox Sports North that the plethora of guards and wings on the roster—Wiggins, Muhammad, LaVine and Ricky Rubio—would not preclude the Wolves from rolling the dice on Russell or Mudiay.

    “Usually, the teams that have made major mistakes in this league have drafted for position rathr than drafting who the best player was or who they thought was maybe someone else higher on the board, but he wasn’t the position they really wanted,” Saunders said. “That’s how we’ll evaluate it.”

    In any event, the Timberwolves will come out of the 2015 NBA Draft with one of those four impact players at the top.

    For a team that just completed its 11th straight season out of the playoffs, that would be adding just another exciting piece to a youthful core that has Minnesota fans at least cautiously optimistic for the first time in several years.

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