Over the last several weeks, the quiet murmurs regarding whether or not Minnesota Timerwolves‘ rookie, Andrew Wiggins, deserves to be crowned the 2015 NBA Rookie of the Year, has evolved into loud uproars.
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Naturally, Philadelphia 76ers fans are championing for their pterodactyl rookie, Nerlens Noel, to win the award. Likewise, the Chicago Bulls brass is enamored with their foreign import, fourth quarter assassin known as Nikola Mirotic — and rightfully so.
Certainly, a case can be made for all three concerning in the nip-and-tuck Rookie of the Year race.
Very few anticipated such a photo finish for the award just a month and a half ago. However, the post All-Star break performances of Noel and Mirotic have spearheaded the ongoing debate as to which of three should actually be awarded the ROY.
The Case For Nerlens Noel
The case for Noel is built around his game-changing defensive presence. Only 20 years old, the former Kentucky Wildcat is already among the league’s elite in terms of rim protection.
In fact, according to NBA.com’s SportVU Data, of players who defend six or more shots at the rim per game, Noel ranks seventh in rim protection, allowing opponents to convert on only 45.0 percent of their attempts from in close when the 6-foot-11 pogostick is patrolling the paint.
In addition, Noel is the sixth most impactful defender at the center position, according to ESPN’s RPM (real plus-minus) stat, sporting a Defensive RPM of 3.16 — which essentially means that, through the context of his role, Noel personally helps shave 3.16 points per 100 possessions off of the Sixers’ D.
Moreover, “the Eraser” (an unoriginal, but apropos nickname) is sixth in the association in DWS (defensive win shares) and third DBPM (defensive box plus/minus), per Basketball-Reference.
Everything about Noel screams a future and perennial Defensive of Player of the Year-type defender.
However, since the All-Star break, the stifling flat-top cyborg has also turned into a competent offensive threat. His game, as a whole, has gone to another level, averaging over 13.9 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 2.7 blocks per game on 55.5 percent TS% (true shooting percentage).
His draw-dropping steals and blocks numbers, post-trade deadline, are eerily reminiscent to a young Hakeem Olajuwon or David Robinson. In fact, he ranks second in the league in steals and fifth in blocks since the extended All-Star break.
Concurrently, he has also improved his ability to finish around the rim as the season has gone along. Explicitly, Noel has converted on 57.7 percent of his attempts from 10 feet and in, post All-Star break, a stark improvement from the 51.8 percent he posted prior to the trade deadline.
Not surprisingly, his field goal percentage and individual offensive rating has risen from 44.5 percent and 89 to 51.0 percent and 107, when comparing his pre and post All-Star break splits.
His recent offensive explosion is driven in large part by Sixers coach Brett Brown’s decision to play Noel exclusively at the five in a four-out-one-in spread pick-and-roll scheme, as oppose to playing his long-limbed rookie alongside Henry Sims at the power forward position.
In doing so, it has allowed Noel the spacing he needs, particularly in the interior, to dive vivaciously down the middle without the impediment of another big clogging the lane.
Along the way, Noel has had several signature performances all within the past month; most notably, a 23-point, 14-rebound, five-steal, and three-block performance against the New York Knicks on Mar. 20, and a 30-point, 14-rebound, and two-steal performance against the Los Angeles Clippers this past Friday night.
The Case For Nikola Mirotic
Similarly, Mirotic has played his best ball during the stretch run of the 2014-15 NBA season. When given minutes, the former Spanish ACB League MVP has produced scintillating offensive numbers.
However, the Bulls’ veteran depth in its frontcourt has prevented Mirotic from enjoying a stable flow of playing time, particularly during the months of January and February when the semi-healthy trio of Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Pau Gasol all played ahead of the 24 year-old rookie stretch four.
As we approach the playoffs, though, and injuries once again began to bite the Bulls’ championship fortunes, Mirotic has emerged as Chicago’s most reliable offensive weapon.
At his core, he’s a shooting guard trapped in a forward’s body — consistently showcasing his ability to hit pull-up threes, put opposing bigs on skates with his advanced handle, and keep defenses on their proverbial heels with his pumpfake and drive game. As such, his myriad of skills allows Niko to score in bunches, via the free throw line, even when his outside shot deserts him.
For the season, Mirotic averages 18.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per 36 minutes of play. Even though he only shoots a rather mundane 41.3 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from the beyond the arc, his free throw rate of 46.4 percent, which ranks fifth in the league among perimeter-oriented rotation players, allows Niko to score at an efficient 56.0 percent TS%.
Like Noel, with an influx of minutes, Mirotic has increased his production exponentially after the All-Star break, averaging over 27.7 minutes per game while putting up 17.7 points and 6.9 rebounds on 57.0 percent TS%.
More interestingly, since the trade deadline passed, Mirotic ranks fourth in the association, trailing only Russell Westbrook, Isaiah Thomas, and LeBron James, in fourth quarter scoring.
His vivacious play has forced Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau to not only keep Mirotic in his regular rotation, but to actively seek different alternatives to feature the bearded Montenegrin within Chicago’s offensive scheme.
To be more specific, over the past week, despite having a full complement of bigs at his disposal, Thibs has continued to play the rookie stretch four over 30 minutes a game — revisiting the Niko at small forward experiment by utilizing Mirotic’s size, touch, and ability to draw fouls to punish smaller wing defenders on the right block.
Why Andrew Wiggins Still Deserve The ROY Award
Sure enough, Mirotic and Noel leads all rookies in VORP (value over replacement player) this season.
However, despite the impressive and surging play of Nerlens and Nikola, Wiggins is still the definitive ROY. While his advanced metrics may not be as pleasant as the aforementioned candidates, his superb play throughout the season gives him the inherent upper hand.
It may not be fair, as Wiggins has been given every opportunity to succeed, serving as the Wolves’ No. 1 option since December; but with the exception of his banal play in November, Andrew has answered the bell at every turn, and for all intents and purposes, has lived up to the monumental pre-draft hype surrounding the 20-year-old phenom.
Unlike Noel, Wiggins has not been a liability on one end of the floor for the majority of the season. And unlike Mirotic, Wiggins has been a constant presence in Minnesota’s active rotation for the entirety of the incumbent campaign.
Undoubtedly, if Mirotic were to play for a middling lottery team, where he served as the undisputed top option on offense, he could very well have the ROY award wrapped up by now, as he is, by far, the most polished rookie.
But the ROY award has always been about opportunity and volume. Wiggins fits both categories. Not to mention, Wiggins has played every game, logging an insane amount of minutes, and demands the undivided attention of opposing defenses on a nightly basis. Take for example, the following instance:
Despite the mismatch of misfits he calls his teammates, and the aforementioned uncompromising factors he faces, the willowy 6-foot-8 jumping jack has averaged 18.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game on 53.3 percent TS% since the calendar year turned 2015.
More impressively, Wiggins has a knack of playing best when the lights shine the brightest, putting up a vengeful 60 points in the two contests against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, two 30-plus point performances against the presumable MVP this year, James Harden, and the Houston Rockets, and just when the ROY race was heating up, Wiggy has averaged a ho-hum 26.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game over his last three contests.
While this should not be a deciding factor, Wiggins is also the only genuine rookie of the three. Noel has had a full year of NBA style training and acclimation to life in the association while recovering from his torn ACL last season. Meanwhile, Mirotic was drafted in 2011, and has had years of professional seasoning overseas before debuting in the NBA this year.
Dunking with Wolves
Conversely, Wiggins was a wide-eyed 19-year-old No. 1 overall pick coming into the season, spurned by the team who drafted him, and came in with a reputation as an ultra-raw athlete who was going to take several years to find his footing in the league.
He has, by all accounts, exceeded all expectations, especially on the offensive end, finding ways to slither his 199-pound frame towards the tin, and finishing at the rim at with unforeseen efficacy, in spite of his blatant lack of a functional handle.
For such reasons — namely, his consistency, natural progression, and the external circumstances he has had to play through — makes Andrew Wiggins the Rookie of the Year still despite the billowing play of Mirotic and Noel.
Whoever wins it, however, fans of all three players/franchises should be excited about not only their team’s future, but the future of the NBA as a whole.
*Stats current going into Mar. 29’s slate of games
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