Detroit Pistons’ Spencer Dinwiddie: What Is His Potential?
The Detroit Pistons are the next team on the Eastern Conference chopping block to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. With the Pistons set to miss the playoffs, the remaining games will be spent answering questions about next year. A few of the biggest questions are:
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Who is their point guard of the future? Brandon Jennings, Reggie Jackson or both, à la the Phoenix Suns?
What to do about unrestricted power forward Greg Monroe?
(Or, what will Greg Monroe decide to do? He is an unrestricted free agent and has a choice of destinations, hence the reason he signed the qualifying offer in the first place.)
Who should the Pistons draft this summer?
This question is hard to speculate about until the draft lottery has decided which pick the Pistons get. The most that can be done now is throwing out names that would address a need, like shooting for example. Or what they might do if they are lucky enough to get a top pick.
Another question the Pistons must try to answer is, “What do we have in Spencer Dinwiddie?”
Dinwiddie So Far
It is a safe bet that Dinwiddie won’t be winning the Rookie of the Year award. The reaction to his season averages range from “OK” (assists) to “I don’t know if this guy is going to make it” (shooting percentage).
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/27/2015.
Before the All-Star break he struggled to earn playing time, appearing in only 16 games and averaging 9.7 minutes in the few games he did play. Since the All-Star break he has appeared in all but two of the Pistons’ games and averaged 17.7 minutes per game.
Splitting his numbers before and after the All-Star break paint a slightly better picture of what kind of player he can be, but his shooting is still pretty poor.
Pre All-Star
| G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0 | 9.7 | .292 | 0.2 | 1.4 | .130 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.000 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/27/2015.
Post All-Star
| G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 1 | 17.7 | .319 | 0.6 | 2.6 | .220 | 1.3 | 1.4 | .870 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 6.4 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/27/2015.
Given more opportunity, Dinwiddie has shown the ability to create shots for others as evidenced by his 4.4 assists per game since the break, if not make them himself yet.
Per 36 minutes, he is averaging 8.3 assists, which leads all rookies that have played more than six games. Of rookies that have played more than a handful of games, that is the best assist number per 36 minutes since Ricky Rubio in 2011-12. Rubio also happens to be adept at setting up others to score, but struggling to do so efficiently himself.
At this point Dinwiddie is a distributor and non-shooter. He attempts quite a few threes, but doesn’t hit very many. His most frequent type of shot, whether it is a two or a three, is a pull-up jumper—50.6 percent of attempts—but he is only shooting 30.1 percent on those shots. As bad as he is pulling up, he is worse in catch and shoot situations, hitting only two of his 22 attempts.
He is an accurate free-throw shooter though, hitting 29 of his 32 attempts, good for 90.6 percent. That leads all rookies that have attempted more than four.
To put his poor field goal shooting and three-point shooting in perspective consider:
- Among rookies that have attempted at least 100 field goals, Dinwiddie has the 10th-worst shooting percentage since 1980, per Basketball-Reference.com. (Interestingly the worst is fellow rookie Gary Harris of the Denver Nuggets at 26.6 percent. Yikes.)
- Since 1980, Dinwiddie has the ninth-worst three-point shooting percentage among rookies that attempted at least 50 threes.
Before writing Dinwiddie’s shooting off for the rest of his career, it is helpful to know that:
- Sharpshooter Kyle Korver makes an appearance on that same list for shooting 35.2 percent from the field and 28.3 percent from three as a rookie.
- Dirk Nowitzki has the 15th-worst three-point shooting percentage among rookies that attempted at least 50 threes with an ice cold 20.6 percent.
- Since 1980, among rookies that attempted at least 25 free throws, Dinwiddie ranks eighth in free-throw percentage at 90.6 percent.
- In college, Dinwiddie shot 38.6 percent on 298 three-point attempts.
Part of Dinwiddie’s impact on the game that doesn’t show up in the box score as easily is his defensive ability and potential. According to NBA.com’s player tracking data, Dinwiddie is holding his opponents 0.1 percent under their average shooting percentage.
On the surface it seems like Dinwiddie is merely an average defender, however it is an accomplishment for a rookie to not be getting burned on the defensive end and already be average. He is also pilfering 1.6 steals per 36 minutes.
For comparisons sake, many raved about Elfrid Payton‘s defensive potential before the season began. His opponents are shooting 4.1 percent above their normal average. That isn’t horrible for a rookie, but it isn’t great either.
While the comparison is imperfect because Payton has had to play defense against starters and hasn’t missed a game yet, it does illustrate that Dinwiddie clearly has some potential on the defensive end.
It is also worth mentioning that Dinwiddie is 6-foot-6 and 200 pounds, giving him the height to guard three positions and a size advantage against most point guards and some shooting guards.
Other than the college threes, all of Dinwiddie’s numbers come from relatively small sample sizes. At this point, his entire NBA career of 32 games is a “small sample size”. To truly find out what kind of player Dinwiddie can be, he needs to spend more time on the court.
Going Forward
In different circumstances Dinwiddie might be playing even more over the last few games than he will be with the Pistons. If he happened to be backing up an established point guard, the veteran might be getting a little extra rest while the coaching staff and front office got a chance to observe Dinwiddie in extended minutes.
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However, Pistons president and head coach Stan Van Gundy still needs to play Reggie Jackson starter’s minutes to see what he is worth this upcoming summer as well as try to build some chemistry between the core players for next year.
In the Pistons recent game against the Orlando Magic, Dinwiddie played close to 17 minutes in the win. He scored seven points on 2-of-6 shooting and went 3-of-4 from the line, dished six assists, grabbed two rebounds and two steals. Barring an injury to either Jackson or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, he’ll probably only play 15 to 20 minutes a game the rest of the season.
Those 15 to 20 minutes a game will be a good test for Dinwiddie though, to see if he can be a consistent contributor each night while not getting starter’s minutes. With both Brandon Jennings and Reggie Jackson on the roster, the backup point guard spot is the one that Dinwiddie will need to learn and be effective playing if he wants to remain in the rotation come next season.
During the offseason, the key area Dinwiddie needs to focus on improving is his shooting. Even though Kyle Korver and Dirk Nowitzki—as well as other notable NBA players—make appearances on the same lists as Dinwiddie because of their poor shooting rookie campaigns, there are also many names that are not easily recognizable to most NBA fans.
A good number of careers haves fizzled out because of the inability to become at least somewhat efficient shooting the ball. Ricky Rubio is a rare bird that is able to remain effective despite his poor shooting by being a very good passer and snatching a healthy number of steals, not that he isn’t still trying to improve his shot.
Dinwiddie may never become as lethal a shooter as Korver or Nowitzki, but his free-throw stroke and college three-point shooting suggest he can improve from the historically bad shooting he has displayed thus far in his short career.
As long as he can become at least close to average shooting the ball, his passing ability and defensive potential should keep him on an NBA roster for years to come.
Who knows, he might even exceed the expectations of being a second round pick.
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