Russell Westbrook has been on a tear for the Oklahoma City Thunder. While he has been busy changing into a player that can do things only guys like Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson have done, another change has been taking place as well. The Thunder’s third most important player, Serge Ibaka has been moving his game back inside the three-point arc.
The area of his activity on the floor has shifted and his production has improved right along with it.
In a league that has increasingly relied on the three-point shot—going from 3.1 percent of all attempts in 1979-80 to 25.9 percent in 2014-15 according to Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland—Ibaka’s game might be better served without it.
That notion may go against advanced analytics and basic math, but Ibaka is a very specific case and is putting together a unique season.
Drifting Outside
Serge Ibaka came into the league as a raw, athletic shot-blocker. He has worked on his game tirelessly and looking at his career numbers it is easy to see improvement each year, especially in his free-throw percentage.
| Season | Age | Tm | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TRB | BLK | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 20 | OKC | 73 | 0 | 18.1 | 2.8 | 5.1 | .543 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .500 | 0.8 | 1.3 | .630 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 6.3 |
| 2010-11 | 21 | OKC | 82 | 44 | 27.0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | .543 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | 1.7 | 2.2 | .750 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 9.9 |
| 2011-12 | 22 | OKC | 66 | 66 | 27.2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | .535 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .333 | 1.2 | 1.8 | .661 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 9.1 |
| 2012-13 | 23 | OKC | 80 | 80 | 31.1 | 5.6 | 9.7 | .573 | 0.3 | 0.7 | .351 | 1.8 | 2.4 | .749 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 13.2 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | OKC | 81 | 81 | 32.9 | 6.5 | 12.1 | .536 | 0.3 | 0.7 | .383 | 1.9 | 2.5 | .784 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 15.1 |
| 2014-15 | 25 | OKC | 62 | 62 | 33.0 | 5.8 | 12.2 | .473 | 1.2 | 3.2 | .380 | 1.4 | 1.7 | .840 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 14.2 |
| Career | 444 | 333 | 28.2 | 4.8 | 9.0 | .533 | 0.3 | 0.7 | .375 | 1.5 | 2.0 | .744 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 11.3 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/6/2015.
Focusing on this season, there are some significant differences. One of the most eye-popping is his three-point attempts. They have jumped from 0.7 per game to 3.2 per game. From 2009-12 Ibaka attempted a total of six three-pointers. From 2012-14 Ibaka attempted 117. This year he has already attempted 200 threes, hitting a very respectable 38 percent of them.
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The importance of the three-point shot is well documented in many places, including here by our own Shane Young. It would seem that Ibaka adding the three to his offensive repertoire would be in his best interests as well as the Thunder’s, especially considering they rank 25th in three-point shooting at 32.8 percent, per NBA.com.
However, Ibaka’s use of the three has had some unintended consequences. His field goal percentage is at a career low 47.3 percent. That is 7.2 percent lower than any previous season Ibaka has logged, including his rookie year. The trade off would be worth it if he produced more points per attempt, but he hasn’t.
He is attempting 12.2 shots this year and scoring 14.2 points on those shots. Last year—without extensive use of the three-ball—Ibaka produced 15.1 points on 12.1 shots per game. Virtually the same number of attempts, but almost a point less.
By drifting out to the three-point line, Ibaka’s free-throw attempts have dropped by almost one per game from last season as well. Playing outside the paint leads to fewer shooting fouls and less points per attempt.
Part of the difference may also be mental as well. When players are attacking the basket and playing around the paint, that aggressiveness bleeds over into other parts of the game. Ibaka’s rebounds and blocks are both down in comparison to last year. Drifting around the perimeter on offense leads to a slight dip in aggressiveness on defense.
That being said, Ibaka is still second in blocks per game with 2.4, trailing only New Orleans Pelicans‘ Anthony Davis, per NBA.com. Also consider that if Ibaka averages at least one made three and two blocks per game, he would be only the second player to do so in the history of the NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
He has been a rare blend of three-point shooting and rim protection.
Back Inside
Serge Ibaka has been a more productive and aggressive player since the All-Star break. Looking at the splits below, it almost seems like a different player entirely.
Pre All-Star
| Pre | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 32.7 | 5.5 | 12 | .459 | 4.1 | 8.4 | .489 | 1.4 | 3.6 | .389 | 1.3 | 1.6 | .835 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 13.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/6/2015.
Post All-Star
| Post | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 35.4 | 7.3 | 13.4 | .545 | 7.1 | 12.3 | .577 | 0.2 | 1.1 | .200 | 2 | 2.3 | .857 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 16.9 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/6/2015.
It has only been nine games, but Ibaka’s production is up across the board. The only category that is not improved is his three-point shooting. He is only attempting one per game and hitting 20 percent on those attempts.
He is shooting 8.6 percent better from the field, grabbing 2.7 more rebounds and blocking almost a shot more per game, all while averaging an extra 3.1 points per game.
Even when Ibaka is not shooting threes as much, he is still not a traditional back-to-the-basket big man. Much of the rise in his offensive game is due to shooting a high percentage on a prolific number of catch-and-shoot, mid-range jumpers.
He led the league in mid-range efficiency in 2012-13 shooting 50.8 percent, was tied for sixth in 2014-15 at 46.9 percent, but is down to 14th with 44.6 percent this season among players attempting at least four mid-range shots per game, per NBA.com.
Before the All-Star break, Ibaka’s efficiency on mid-range jumpers decreased to 42.1 percent on 4.3 attempts per game, according to NBA.com. After the All-Star break, that number improves to 53 percent on 7.3 midrange attempts per game.
Normally substituting mid-range jumpers for three-pointers would lead to a decrease in efficiency. Ibaka is a unique case because of his elite mid-range shooting ability.
It is possible that adjusting between shooting threes and shooting midrange jumpers through out the course of the game disrupted his rhythm and led to the decrease in midrange efficiency. His 53 percent shooting on midrange jumpers since the All-Star break ranks third behind Los Angeles Clippers‘ Chris Paul and Minnesota Timberwolves‘ Kevin Garnett, per NBA.com.
Ibaka has increased his attempts and efficiency in the paint and restricted area from 4.1 per game, shooting 56 percent before the break to five attempts per game shooting 64.4 precent after the break, according to NBA.com.
Below is a video of Ibaka’s inside the arc offense from the Thunder’s first game back after the All-Star break. He also happened to grab 22 rebounds in this game.
Ibaka is scoring in the paint more often and at a better percentage, but the bigger difference has been his midrange shooting. Ibaka’s move inside the arc on offense has helped bolster his scoring efficiency and points per shot. At some point, Ibaka may be able to balance shooting the three while being aggressive inside more effectively.
For the time being, less activity from three and more aggressiveness inside the arc has helped Ibaka be more efficient and carry that same aggressiveness and production over to the defensive end.
Ibaka’s Importance
While Serge Ibaka’s improved offense has been a complimentary weapon to the overpowering scoring of Westbrook and Kevin Durant, his real importance to the Thunder is on the defensive end. His improved play on that end of the floor since the All-Star break bodes well for the league’s 11th best defense, per NBA.com.
FanSided
Ibaka has been All-Defensive First Team the last three years running. Opponents are only shooting 41.1 percent on shots at the rim while Ibaka is defending. That is second in the league among players defending three or more shots at the rim per game, according to NBA.com.
In games which Ibaka grabs 10 or more rebounds and blocks three or more shots, the Thunder are 52-14 over the course of his career, per Basketball-Reference.com. Coincidentally, those are his averages post All-Star break.
His importance for the Thunder, especially on the defensive end was illustrated very clearly in the Thunder’s Western Conference Finals series against the eventual champion San Antonio Spurs. Ibaka was thought to be lost for the rest of the playoffs with a calf injury, but returned in Game Three of the series and helped the Thunder claw out of a two-game deficit.
The Thunder played the Spurs even, 2-2 with Ibaka in the lineup, but by then it was too late.
Ibaka has only missed five games including the playoffs due to injury since joining the Thunder in 2009. The Thunder are 2-3 in those games. His remarkable durability has been key for Oklahoma City as Westbrook has missed 51 games in the last two years and Durant has missed 35 games this year.
Even with their stars out at times, the Thunder have been able to count on having Ibaka available. In effect, Ibaka has “had the Thunder’s back.” That is exactly what new Thunder big man Enes Kanter said after a win against the Denver Nuggets. From Reuters,
“When you play with Serge, you just feel more comfortable,” Kanter said. “You know he has your back.”
On offense, on defense, night in and night out Serge Ibaka has the Thunder’s back. How well he has their back depends on how active he is inside the arc, not outside of it. Maybe one day it will be both.
For now, Ibaka is back inside.
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