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What Is Zach LaVine’s Ceiling?

By Christopher Cruz

Jan 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Zach LaVine (8) dribbles in the first quarter against the Boston Celtics at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Boston Celtics 110-98. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 28, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Zach LaVine (8) dribbles in the first quarter against the Boston Celtics at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Boston Celtics 110-98. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /
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As the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest was in full swing, and I saw Zach LaVine do his amazingly acrobatic dunks, I began to wonder about his ceiling. What is possible for this young player? After seeing a few games in the beginning of the season, I was skeptical about LaVine’s abilities. He was a liability on defense, which is the first thing that stood out to me.

If you’re a stickler on numbers, then allow the numbers to be your guide. LaVine’s DRPM (Defensive Real Plus-Minus) is a -4.54, which is last for point guards in the NBA. I would also question the idea of making LaVine a point guard. He is 6’5″, which sort of seems like a cool idea, right? If you have a player that is really tall and really, really athletic, then you have an advantage. But at this point in the season, most can see that isn’t going to happen.

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From just his defense real plus-minus, you can see that he gives up a ton on defense. I, however, would remain optimistic about his defense. We know that the 19-year-old is athletic, allowing him to recover faster than most people are able to dribble. His inability on defense could be because a number of reasons. Not having Ricky Rubio might be one part of it. The other might be that he is a rookie, and that he hasn’t quite caught up with the speed of the league yet. At least, let’s hope that’s it.

The other part that is lacking is his offense. Aside from dunking, it is hard to really see that he has many other facets to his game. He is shooting 41 percent from the floor and 28 percent from three-point range. He shoots 34.6 percent from 15 feet to 24 feet out, so he isn’t much of a midrange threat either.

Most of the high percentage shots that he takes are layups, dunks or put-backs from offensive rebounds. His ORPM (Offensive Real Plus-Minus) is not much better than his defensive metric. His ORPM is -3.22. As you can see, this season hasn’t been great for LaVine.

So how good can he be? That is, how good can he be other than just an athletic attraction on All-Star weekend? I would say that he can be a slightly worse Gerald Green. He can be a good rotation player. He hasn’t quite acquired skills that I think translate into this league, aside from his athleticism, which is pretty much given. But he can learn.

A lot of college players enter the NBA unable to shoot well, which is a slight on the college game. Green didn’t really shoot that well when he got to the league either. LaVine was able to play well during college because of his athleticism, but he soon learned that everybody is athletic in the NBA, and also, everybody is smarter in the league as well.

That means that LaVine has to develop a jump shot, and learn to play defense in a system. He might never be a great one-on-one defender, but truthfully, not a lot of guys are. But if LaVine can learn to play in a system as other players have, then he can be a valuable asset off the bench for a good team. You’re going to tell me that the Spurs wouldn’t turn him into the next Manu Ginobili?

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